Sibir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 04/12/2008 11:37

Was it the KGB shortly before they gave the auditor a barium sandwich?

[p@] 04/12/2008 11:27

A347- Who valued it?

[coco] 04/12/2008 11:18

That correct but this company is undervalued isnt it, That cannot be denied.

[a3477681] 04/12/2008 11:06

Coco
The aroma of the coffe is drifting around today.
They discounted the property by 33% in their NAV.

[a3477681] 04/12/2008 11:02

Jefferies recommend BUY from HOLD price 43 target 150
Net Debt (MM): $643.1
Net Debt/Capital: 20.6%
Long-Term Debt (MM): $105.0

Valuation- Risks
150p/sh PT at a premium to the current share price
(down more than 60% in response to the latest real estate
transactions) but at a significant discount to NAV recognising
Sibir's cheap assets but ongoing country and minority risks and
corporate governance issues. Our DCF derived NAV shown
below values Sibir's assets at 743p/sh, down 68p/sh. The decline
in NAV represents increased net debt for 2009 and a higher
discount applied to the real estate assets reflecting the
pre-development stage of most of the properties and higher
currency risk.

[wskill] 04/12/2008 10:40

Very peacefull today on the thread shorters are not posting so maybe they have moved on to another board

[coco] 04/12/2008 09:51

Shorts closing cannot go down anymore common sense it begining to come home people now smell the coffee.

[dorset64] 04/12/2008 09:50

geez these are motoring now. Think I will sell soon as I am approacing 30%+ profit in 24 hours and, all said and done, a profit is a profit in these markets.

Think I will take my share and leave the rest to you guys, good luck all.

Dorset


edit: now out gl all

[chesty1] 04/12/2008 09:43

Someone wants these today or is it mm games to suck us into buying...hhhhmmmmm

[chesty1] 04/12/2008 09:37

1delboy yes it could fly BUT it could also dive straight back down to 4p....

All this 2-3 bag from here stuff...yawn....!

[1delboy] 04/12/2008 09:29

seller cleared over at UEN, could easily 2-3 bag from here, potential 10-30 bag long term

[coco] 04/12/2008 09:08

COCO - 4 Dec'08 - 08:02 - 2356 of 2360
I think its time to pile in now oh and close them shorts - up from here

No COCO the trend is still down and will remain so for a while.

Do u recon lol

[bomfin] 04/12/2008 09:02

2363

LOL,

Unbelievable that a company producing 70,000 bopd is valued at just over £100 million. I understand the reasons why.

It's a fact that the cash he's just bagged for the property folio would be enough to buy what he doesn't own of Sibir. So basically he's sh*fted all other shareholders.

It's like doing the pools with a mate and when you win your mate walks off with all the dosh!

Highway robbery. IMHO DYOR

[cyberian] 04/12/2008 08:59

If shareholders vote in favour it's a done deal and there appears to be no way that the transaction can be halted..the Russians have taken over. It will be made legal by the vote and they will have the majority to push it through if the articles simply require a majority vote.

[hermana] 04/12/2008 08:57

bom,you're smelling de cafe early today.

[soulsauce] 04/12/2008 08:56

COCO - 4 Dec'08 - 08:02 - 2356 of 2360
I think its time to pile in now oh and close them shorts - up from here

No COCO the trend is still down and will remain so for a while.

[bomfin] 04/12/2008 08:55

Now in a situation where chav could buy the company with the money he's just awarded himself, thus getting all the property folio back!!! and the total cashflow of Sibir to keep his lenders happy.

[coco] 04/12/2008 08:46

Lol if that true wrongfred we may as well all pack up and go home PMSL

[hermana] 04/12/2008 08:45

p@,and if concerted action is not taken it won't be the last either.

[p@] 04/12/2008 08:39

Wrongfred-Well said,and don't forget its not the first time with this Co..

[wrongfred] 04/12/2008 08:09

Coco - obviously you're desperate to talk up your holding here but most of the commentators here are in a position to be much more rational. There's no point picking up the phone as you well know. I used to do this for a living and believe me, Sibir can not be valued, because valuation methods require certain basic principles as a starting point. They are that the assets you have are yours, and will remain yours, and that the company being valued will act in the best interests of the company, not other individuals.

You can run the slide rule over what you think you have now, but you can't guarantee that the company won't engineer a cash squeeze in a couple of years when Russian property prices are much lower than they are now but recovering. Then they will transfer these property assets back to Mr. Tchigirinski at a beneficial price to him, but one which will be dressed up to look like a good deal by the company. Bear in mind, that over the next couple of years, beyond the price paid for the assets directly, there will likely be maintenance and development costs on the newly-acquired properties running into hundreds of millions of dollars.

There is clearly a transfer of wealth from the company to the majority shareholder here, it would be naive to think this couldn't happen again.

As for Henry Cameron, assuming the Moscow Times article is correct, he's publicly stated that corporate governance is less important than 'management decisiveness'. To put it another way, he's saying that he has carte blanche to do anything he sees fit. Corporate governance is the legal framework in which companies are supposed to operate. When you start placing other things above this, you're implicitly stating your belief that you are entitled to act illegally where you think it appropriate.

I'm not saying there's no value here, but nobody can know because all the rules have been thrown out of the window and anything could happen at this point. And anything the company tells you could be false or deliberately misleading, because as they've said, corporate governance isn't as important as getting things done.

Sibir is now purely a gamble on whether the minority shareholders interests will be the same as Mr. Tchigirinski's in the future. They may be, but they haven't been recently, and the consequence of that is plain to see in the share price.

[coco] 04/12/2008 08:02

I think its time to pile in now oh and close them shorts - up from here

[coco] 04/12/2008 07:33

In the first instance, the value being attributed to these assets is what I would question...... Well pick up the phone then !!

[napoleon 14th] 04/12/2008 07:26

cyberian - 2342 - probably the best point made in the last 500 posts.
Mr T is clearly in breach of all notions of probity, whether informal convention or the legal aspect of corporate governance.

I wonder: who are the shareholders who will lodge the appropriate objection?
Also, whether this would be time-bared if done after the EGM?
Also, if Mr T can be stopped from pulling the "sting" he has in mind, what are the practical consequences, ie.: He's broke & would apparently have to dump his shares - on the open market for a song or make a deal with Shell?!!!

That's where theory meets reality & the result could be as damaging as is the sting being plotted by Mr T.
In the first instance, the value being attributed to these assets is what I would question......