Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 21:13

Forget about any staged payment assisting cashflow because it would only arrive after a hefty delay. Cash burn means more cash needed to be raised six months at least before going negative so maybe March 24. So we need excellent Q4 23 figures and early good news on Q1 24 so any raise is not so expensive. That is why the share price has fallen. Any known need for more cash is a risk. But it is an opportunity aswell. Make your choice!

[olosnahjames] 18/10/2023 20:17

The terms of the agreement were staged payments ranging from sales of $100m-$250m.
A payment of $7.5m would be triggered in event of sales reaching $100m in a financial year. They do not get $30m on reaching $100m sales!

[bolitix] 18/10/2023 18:08

You are right - 260-280 pricing and a YE24 target given earlier was how they could trigger that $100m sale point to trigger that £30m so this is all about the CEO

[best1467] 18/10/2023 17:35

The VTRS $30m might be a pipe dream with the history of never ending disappointment.
But it would look a certainty that if it looks on the cards they would make a takeover approach.
I feel ridiculous evening mentioning with the repeated failings every time things seem to be turning.but we can but dream

[qipincha] 18/10/2023 16:07

typical oversold last two weeks

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 15:55

Q1 24. 75k
Q2 24. 100k
Q3 24. 125k
Q4 24. 150k
Maintains current ramp up rate.
Total 450k so 380k allows below 25k increase per quarter.

[bolitix] 18/10/2023 15:49

This was all heading in the direction before that CEO started playing his games.

28 Sep 23 they gave:
YE22 as 25,180 sales and considered great compared to YE21 achieving US0.1m
3Q23 forecast 28,454 (surpassing 2022 alone!)
4Q23 forecast 51,217 (doubling the 2022 sales figure!)
Hence YE24 should be 105,955 US sales

Assumptions:
51,217 or better per Q going forward. 4x 51,217 gives 204,868 sales YE24
However YE24 target was 370-420k sales, so need 100k per Q to do that.
If price reaches 240-250 they will trigger a VTRS $30m pay-out ($100m sales).
Also ASK Pharma (China) should return $10m in 2024.
So 30m+10m would cover Operational cost leaving half of the $100m as sales profit
Hence YE24 they can easily be cash-positive (approx $50m.
VTRS have a decision to make - pay $30 for only 20m profit or accelerate Sales to make more!!

So interesting times and needs a good CEO!!!

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 15:29

13 now. 100,000 at 6.59p

[theclangers] 18/10/2023 15:21

you never know, a bidder building a position before they strike LOL

[alancapone] 18/10/2023 15:14

Another bid incoming?

[theclangers] 18/10/2023 15:06

Yeah, I noticed that too, someone building a position, and happy to keep paying ever higher prices

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 14:44

Somebody is building. 11 buys of 100,000 today at regular intervals when there have been none previously this week.
And another at 6.49p make that 12

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 14:04

No. It’s just a stupid low price given the sales are snowballing, the gross margin should rise snd demand awareness is rising. It’s correcting. 6.1p was very nice to get.

[theclangers] 18/10/2023 14:01

Going up without news, is she a leaky ship?

[the imperialist] 18/10/2023 12:21

Up she goes. Even if she's going to 1p, she's going to 13p first. That's how markets work!

[bobaxe1] 18/10/2023 11:45

Was here many moons ago at 60 had to trade out, been watching ever since

[the imperialist] 18/10/2023 10:39

Very cheap. I envy your entry price. (7.2p here).

[bobaxe1] 18/10/2023 09:55

Took some cheap down here

[the imperialist] 18/10/2023 09:48

Time to leave the mugs like hamida behind.

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 09:45

The new sales team started late May. They are less than useless for three months and prescribers are mostly closed in August. They will have contributed near zero in any reported figures. Monthly rise should accelerate. Yes, STX will have to grab for some more money in 2024 but by then the cash will be snowballing and any money needed will no longer be eight months sales but maybe two.

[qipincha] 18/10/2023 09:42

the sales volume has a 26% monthly increase rate in the last few months. as the new sales team only in place in May, it is anticipated the growth will continue for some time.

[trotterstrading] 18/10/2023 09:41

I took some this morning at 6.18 looks well oversold to me, happy to hold and let this play out, could be very lucrative

[hamidahamida] 18/10/2023 09:36

Only going up for the liquidity to go down and take out the old lows

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 09:27

I added at 6.1p. I think that was the bottom. Now the tide has turned.