Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[purchaseatthetop] 03/10/2023 14:11

Thanks devonlad. Appreciated. The impact of the figures is 100% clear and the fact they have a process to deal with it is excellent. I guess this is a price of getting market penetration as fast as possible. A bit like aerosols. Some misses.

[eeza] 03/10/2023 14:02

No
Have a nice day
Missing you already.

[best1467] 03/10/2023 14:00

Hi GREG JUST ONE LAST QUESTION ANY THOUGHTS ON THE STOCK DOWN 45% in the last few days

[devonlad] 03/10/2023 13:53

The average net sales price for Accrufer in US was US$119 in H1 (vs. US$124 in H1 2022) and expectations were that this would be starting to rise by now. Shield has highlighted that the main reason for this is the high rate (c50%) of discounted prescriptions versus reimbursed ones. Around half the prescriptions are being reimbursed by commercial payers at a price of c.$250-260 per month (roughly half the Average Wholesale Price of c.$530 per month), with the balance of going through the Patient Access Program (PAP). These discounted prescriptions, which have only a US$25 co-pay, are effectively provided free of charge by Shield, depressing the average revenue/prescription. This is known as the gross-to-net (GTN) adjustment.

Shield has determined that the issue is being caused by physicians failing to seek prior authorisations (PAs) even when they could do so and the patient would be reimbursed. It intends to address this issue with a 12-person "market access" team dedicated to supporting physicians to navigate the system, rather than this being a subsidiary role of the salesforce. The requirement for prior authorisations is a well-known phenomenon in the US market and is particularly problematic in this case because of the presence of generic oral iron products. In addition, it intends to modify the PAP program, by requiring a PA submission to occur before the patient can access preferred cash price, with effect from early Q4.

That is what I was babbling on about!

[eeza] 03/10/2023 13:40

Proactive broker note pdf out now.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/10/2023 13:14

eeza. The gross margin they are earning now is 51% when the target was 75%. That means the $120 a prescription revenue must double (to $200 so $50 cost of sale is 25%). The cash forecast has clearly been hit by that. The question is can they raise the gross margin. That is what the new director is there for.

[eeza] 03/10/2023 12:52

"paying off an existing loan" of $5.7 and taking out a new loan of $20m.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/10/2023 12:46

He explains that the new funding is going to be put to use in "paying off an existing loan, increasing our working capital needs and then certainly some commercial investments to accelerate the curve that we're seeing here." The curve he describes is the marked increase in demand for Shield's Accrufer product, which is a stable, non-salt based oral therapy for adults with iron deficiency that is designed to avoid some of the unwanted side-effects of conventional iron tablets.

He says he "can't speak highly enough about the dedication and passion of [his] team at Shield, but also about our partner Viatris... we made an excellent choice... we couldn't be more pleased with the partnership and the collaboration we're seeing."

Proactive thing out. OK paid views but mildly interesting.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/10/2023 12:26

not really.

[cyberbub] 03/10/2023 12:10

Yes that scenario is possible I suppose.

[skcots48] 03/10/2023 12:07

Just to clarify, if you wanted a very large buy, which you'd have trouble completing with shares in circulation, is it possible some might have taken it up?I haven't for the record. I'm nursing my paper losses

[purchaseatthetop] 03/10/2023 09:43

Thats a standard placing notice. The $20m has been done. Only an idiot would have bought the REX offer.

[cyberbub] 03/10/2023 09:29

I don't expect REX to be taken up obviously. But the main placing was confirmed as completed last week, but now it seems like there is some delay?

[zeus19] 03/10/2023 09:27

You must be talking about the REX offer

[zeus19] 03/10/2023 09:25

What are you talking about?

[cyberbub] 03/10/2023 09:09

What does the RNS mean - that's there's some problem with the placing?

[best1467] 03/10/2023 08:53

Blame the corrupt not to be trusted doesn’t give a flying F about PI BOD

[encarter] 03/10/2023 08:14

Blame the leaky ship.

[amaretto1] 03/10/2023 07:14

What a absolute mess Not yet been taken up either

[jimbren] 02/10/2023 17:42

Just the hangover we stil have

[jimbren] 02/10/2023 17:41

At least there won't be a retail overhang.

[purchaseatthetop] 02/10/2023 17:33

The Edison July 22 valuation of 172p had a gross margin of 75% snd revenue 2023 of £16m
Half years show gross margin of 51% snd revenues lower than the dollar equivalent of $20m. $4.3m half year might become $17m. The gross margin contribution per Edison was about $15m for 2023 but maybe only $8m.
That is why the new cash is required and why they must raise the gross margin.