Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[r9505571] 05/10/2023 10:10

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 28%The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated.2023 revenue forecast decreased from US$25.1m to US$18.0m.Forecast losses increased from -US$0.034 to -US$0.035 per share.Pharmaceuticals industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 78% next year.Consensus price target down from UK£0.56 to UK£0.47.Share price fell 25% to UK£0.073 over the past week.

[parob] 05/10/2023 09:27

Offering 10% discount to recent placing.

[parob] 05/10/2023 09:26

Possibly bottoming here

[peakyscammer] 05/10/2023 08:54

Ha ha ha Stx is a dog

[purchaseatthetop] 04/10/2023 17:33

GM had options at 7.2p granted a year ago. I think that makes todays price of 7.2p OK.

[toffeeman] 04/10/2023 17:16

>>PATT you are wrong! - as I have said before the sales strategy is plain wrong = success requires as many prescribers as possible KOLs are irrelevant.

Over and out (but still in!)

[amaretto1] 04/10/2023 16:59

It's taken OBD 3 months ! STX has no excuse

[cyberbub] 04/10/2023 16:38

...and slightly above the published bid price I would add...

[purchaseatthetop] 04/10/2023 16:29

I guess this is the problem with rapid growth. As it takes a few months to get insurance to even cover the cost the prescriptions go onto copay initially while the three to six months of delay is dealt with.

If you are doubling numbers every four months that means average revenue remains lower than standard.

Correct me if I am wrong please!

[cyberbub] 04/10/2023 16:17

Well I can still sell 350k in one go, approaching session close, so there's definitely still some demand for STX shares despite the gloomy wider market...

[bolitix] 04/10/2023 15:46

The proactive interview he said Q4 will be about the same increase as Q3 at about 80% but he didn't think it would improve higher. That number gets STX into the ye23 number proximity they hoped for but if status quo for q4 it would not. Don't forget Q3 had a holiday window within it

[skcots48] 04/10/2023 15:31

Getting up Tiers isn't easy. You usually need new data to convince them.But they should be pushing this door with insurers anyway regardless of their efforts on getting prescribers to seek pre-approval before writing a scripThey still aren't even on some lists. Major players like United, Centene and Humana are about 25-30% total for private insurers. I hope they are using Viatris to pressure them.

[cyberbub] 04/10/2023 15:25

Where was the statement that they weren't expecting more than 80% QonQ rise for Q4?

[bolitix] 04/10/2023 15:17

The share price would be over 20p on those numbers if that plank CEO didn't push out the REX/SWK garbage until later. Each prescriber is to get $25 for a written up prescription. That will allow the Price to go up once it kicks in. He said Q4 will not be above a 80% increase so that will bring them in at about 100k sales YE23 at about $12m. The break even YE24 is to target £40m+ and profit YE25 $120m+. All a far cry from the poor 0.1m in YE21

[cyberbub] 04/10/2023 13:26

I would have thought that targeting the relatively small number of insurers with efficacy and cost-saving data, so they move it up from Tier 3, would be far more efficient than having individual doctors seeking authorisation and providing justification for every patient? Unless they're hoping that having the insurers bombarded with authorisation requests will make them (the insurers) cave in?

Anyway as you say (and I posted yesterday) we're going to have to trust the management to get their job done. As with any company, if you don't believe the management are up to it then you shouldn't be investing.

[crankyman] 04/10/2023 13:10

We have to take their word for it then. There might be inexperience in those clinics with filing the requests or they lack data or the value story. We don’t know from what they’re saying.

[cyberbub] 04/10/2023 12:58

Well fine, but the RNS says that the field access team will work to convince *physicians* to file authorisation requests to the insurers? Rather than your suggestion that the new team will be targeting *insurers*?

[crankyman] 04/10/2023 12:46

That must be because the insurance companies have put it at Tier 3 meaning it requires prior authorisation from insurance as a non-preferred branded drug. They don’t have freedom to prescribe it. Insurance companies aren’t stupid. They are looking to constrain spending. The market access team need to get in there and convince them that it will save them long term through lower repeat hospitalisations I suppose.

[cyberbub] 04/10/2023 11:43

Useful insight crankyman. But my questions are still:* if the non-insured cost is just $25, then the idea that patients can't afford the treatment without insurance is untenable* if the doctors benefit financially from commissions and co-payments by prescribing through insurance, why are *any* of them prescribing outside the insurance channels, as Shield say is happening?

[crankyman] 04/10/2023 11:29

I might add that the mechanism of margins for doctors where none exist for generic oral iron is the reason I thought accrufer would do well in the US. The rate of IV use is actually very low there so, if you’re treating anaemia, there aren’t many options to augment your income. A new high priced oral iron is perfect. However, again, that’s speculation from afar.

[qipincha] 04/10/2023 11:08

China is now back to pre-covid days. And hopefully they will get approval soon

[crankyman] 04/10/2023 11:08

US prescribers will bill the insurer for the full price and then claim back a discount from the pharmaceutical company so the high prices charged for drugs also pay doctors a margin. There is also a copayment which is a percentage of the total cost. That helps to limit that cost because the patient can’t afford to pay above a certain amount per month unless they have copayment insurance. Shield is having to discount pretty heavily to doctors to motivate prescriptions. That’s normal but they would hope to narrow it. I think that is how it works.

[skcots48] 04/10/2023 10:57

The long Covid delay in China has really hurt them. 11m for regulatory approval plus starting to get x percent of sales. No-ones fault

[tripletop1] 04/10/2023 10:37

all the share price progress from Mid July all smashed to pieces..

at least the insider traders profited

well done boys