Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[purchaseatthetop] 19/10/2023 21:38

Just ignore what others are doing. Does the story make sense and can STX get the remaining cash they will need (about $20m) in Q1 24 at a reasonable cost? If so the present 6p will multiply.

[theclangers] 19/10/2023 17:52

I was alluding to, most of the 100k chunky trades were buys yesterday, but today, most of the 100k trades were sells! Just don't make any sense to me, other than trying to generate interest, or was it, the big buyer yesterday changed their mind and sold at a loss today, or was it separate institutions taking it in turns to buy/sell!
Not talking about bots that can execute trades very fast, I know all about them.

[bolitix] 19/10/2023 17:14

sorry guys - I have not forgotten anything - I try to keep it high level and realistically. The increase in reorders and first timers is all part of the action gained through the purchasers growing to 12500 and count with the sales figures so why that happens. The increase in prescribers 4 fold is the only metric that can allow the Ye24 or YE25 figure make sense with only 100 staff. One point I tried to make is that staff now are selling no more each than they did YE22. Given the prescriber increase I find that strange

[cyberbub] 19/10/2023 16:59

Bolitix you're completely forgetting the prospect that a rapidly growing stream of re-orders (which don't need any sales team) will boost prescription levels. We've already seen that 70% of physicians re-order, what will happen when they all move from having had 1or 2 patients use Accrufer as a trial, to bringing 10,20,50 or more of their patients onto it?Plus even if the existing sales team stick at 7.6 prescriptions per day (hopefully more than that, as they should be better trained and motivated than the old lot), remember that these will be from *new* physicians they're targeting. They won't be calling back the same physicians every month, or not spending a lot of time doing that anyway - they will be trusting that the product mostly 'sells itself' and once a physician has become a repeat customer and started ramping up their purchases, they'll move on to the next uncontacted physician! Eventually by late 2025 I think they will be able to start winding down the sales team as the industry awareness of Accrufer will have reached high levels - this will light a rocket under profitability.If the company are smart anyway!NAI etc

[amaretto1] 19/10/2023 16:32

What u talking about clown ?

[the imperialist] 19/10/2023 16:25

Ahhhh so you're from Yorkshire. The plot thickens.

[purchaseatthetop] 19/10/2023 16:15

Bolitix. There is also a repeat prescription roll up. As more prescribers become aware of the medicine and use it they gain sales without selling. If you see what I mean. The salespersons are the tip of the spear.

[bolitix] 19/10/2023 16:07

3Q22 - 22 people sold 10,476 – so 1 Person was selling 7.6 prescriptions per day.


100 sell 760 per day so 3month (66d) = 50,160. 4Q23 is expected to sell 51,217 so all looks aligned.


To reach YE24 370-420k sales – 100 need to sell double the rate of now or we need to double staff.


The only realistic factor that helps is compared to YE22 the number of Prescribers will increases 4 fold.


If we get stuck near 205k ($25m @119) YE24 then +$10m (ASK Pharma) will make them cash positive as the 119 figure is likely to increase over 2024

[the imperialist] 19/10/2023 16:06

Oh no, schools have kicked out. See you all in morning.

[amaretto1] 19/10/2023 16:04

It's called Churning ! STX has millions of shares floating about Check with your broker If you don't believe me

[cyberbub] 19/10/2023 15:21

Remember that 3/4 of all stock market trades are AI algos and bots carrying out high frequency trading. It's impossible for humans to work out their intentions, and many compete with each other in cyberspace. Ultimately they buy and sell within a few minutes, trying to scalp tiny £5 or £10 profits, but if you can do that tens of thousands of times a day then you can make millions a year.

[theclangers] 19/10/2023 14:56

You do wonder if MM's are buying/selling shares to each other, in order to influence genuine investors to follow suit, after all, they make more money with bigger churn/volume

[cyberbub] 18/10/2023 21:45

Good to see STX blue on a red market day. I wonder if there's some news incoming on China etc?Agreed the Viatris payments are some way off, but they will arrive if the company hits its targets and potential.I'm not worried about the prescription growth, I think they've got that more or less on track. The critical thing now is to get the GTN rising strongly in H1.It's definitely a high risk share, but the high reward aspect is also there. Because the company only has 10-12 years left of its patent, I think their strategy will be to return big cash flows to shareholders as divis. I'm sure they will also keep some cash to develop other drugs, but big divis also.

[purchaseatthetop] 18/10/2023 21:13

Forget about any staged payment assisting cashflow because it would only arrive after a hefty delay. Cash burn means more cash needed to be raised six months at least before going negative so maybe March 24. So we need excellent Q4 23 figures and early good news on Q1 24 so any raise is not so expensive. That is why the share price has fallen. Any known need for more cash is a risk. But it is an opportunity aswell. Make your choice!

[olosnahjames] 18/10/2023 20:17

The terms of the agreement were staged payments ranging from sales of $100m-$250m.
A payment of $7.5m would be triggered in event of sales reaching $100m in a financial year. They do not get $30m on reaching $100m sales!

[bolitix] 18/10/2023 18:08

You are right - 260-280 pricing and a YE24 target given earlier was how they could trigger that $100m sale point to trigger that £30m so this is all about the CEO