Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[parob] 29/9/2023 09:04

Thanks Babbler, should help to clear the overhang.

[rhatton] 29/9/2023 08:53

Babbler… link to the article?

[babbler] 29/9/2023 08:53

Tipped in the times today

[little minx] 29/9/2023 08:40

If I remember correctly Accrufer has a value of around £50m perhaps more as just a product.

[parob] 29/9/2023 08:38

No I bought the majority of my shares just above 6p and have averaged up a few times.Like the R/R at this level.

[hamidahamida] 29/9/2023 08:36

Approx 700 million shares are now in issue and millions of warrantsCompany is still worth close to 60 million with many years of failure backing the notion that same will happen in the future..Chart tells a story but obviously you hv well and truly buried your head in the sand...

[parob] 29/9/2023 08:27

ARB went down to 2p then up to £3.30.Many did well out of that.R/R is favourable at this level imo as the downside is limited but there's a big upside should all go to plan plus always the chance of a takeover. Added a few more this morning myself.

[skcots48] 29/9/2023 08:26

Oh wow, deep, some companies don't succeed

[hamidahamida] 29/9/2023 08:16

Name a few companies on AIM BIDSTGRSTXDVRGMOSWSGShares of these companies tanked many fold over the years but the managements of these companies still managed to sell a pipe dream every time they raised money.-:-If you care to look the Clue is always in the Chart

[hamidahamida] 29/9/2023 08:06

4 year Chart tells you everything but some here are blind and still believe in management BS

[heatseek77] 29/9/2023 07:26

Think someone mentioned earlier funny how patt turns up isn't it, he and his other egg shaped bald eagle mate both chancers (imo) from the north of Wales, mates with rotten teeth tom. They use hundreds of aliases beware linked to amaretto etc, his last comment re pead.... about someone is there thick level

[best1467] 29/9/2023 07:08

The problem long term Operational cost Shield only 45/50 per year Revenue States 120 million YE 25 55 % shield leaves 12/15 million profit for the us say another 2.5 from The rest and pe of 15 24 p per share roughly if no further dilution and everything goes to plan .Open to be corrected

[tripletop1] 29/9/2023 06:56

Bolitix, AOP have not only supported the latest fundraise (again) but not many have mentioned it here but they also converted their warrants (at 6.75p) which were given to them as part of last year's support..

Still looks like they've got their back and not playing hardball over SWF as they would have had to approve the deal

[bolitix] 29/9/2023 06:38

I agree the CFO does appear to know the granular detail. 80% Q3 growth on Q2 (which was 50% over Q1) are fantastic numbers. At least fresh blood can buy in at 8p now. AOP shareholders must be going crazy!

[jimbren] 29/9/2023 06:19

Cyberbub, agree with your well considered thoughts. They are decent, competent chaps. The exciting growth story is still more or less intact, and obviously playing out pretty damn well. The info in a complex fundraising is bound to leak late on, but unpredictable in it's impact.

Interesting that in the InvestorMeets Q&A the CEO did at least address the Shield team Vs Viatris team question I asked. Unrealistic of me to expect a real answer but it is a live issue. I think the economics works better for us if Viatris are passive participants.

Remember, they sell other, much less effective, older iron supplements and probably wanted to hedge their bets by jv'ing with us. It's still a win/win deal for both parties. They get a share of our sales for access to their database, partially refunded by the milestones. Is that correct?

[cyberbub] 29/9/2023 00:08

PS I quite rate Hans Peter the CFO, he's a bit of a dour German accountant but I think he has the figures and projections well under control, even when they're running a bit behind targets.

[cyberbub] 28/9/2023 23:37

Hmmm... so Viatris are getting a free ride on Shield's fundraising to support the whole 100 strong sales team?

Perhaps there's something in the Viatris deal from last year where Shield have to raise additional funds for the full sales team if required, in return for Viatris having promised $30m in milestones for hitting sales thresholds, as well as access to their big HCP database?

We mustn't forget those milestones from Viatris, they're quite substantial although Shield won't reveal the actual sales threshold numbers, just "between $100M and $250M". $100m revenues p.a. should come in 2025, so there should be a series of milestone payments through 2025, 2026 and 2027 if they hit targets. There's a reasonable chance that a big chunk of this new loan might be paid off with those milestones IMO - hopefully that's our management's plan :-)

[tripletop1] 28/9/2023 23:04

Cyber, simple answer no. Else it would have been plastered from floor to ceiling in the RNS and presentation.

I'm thinking they might need to call in a favour or two later down the line.. too early to get them to put in again I would say.

[quantas01] 28/9/2023 22:43

I bet that was your thought when the judge brought down his hammer

[cyberbub] 28/9/2023 22:42

Can anyone who knows the answer to my earlier question about Viatris let us know? ie have they also injected $20m into the 50-50(ish) partnership? Thanks

[purchaseatthetop] 28/9/2023 22:10

My life is ruined………

[cyberbub] 28/9/2023 22:02

PATT filtered. How I wish I'd done it 2 years ago!!! I could have been literally tens of thousands of pounds better off (I blame no one but myself though).

[cyberbub] 28/9/2023 22:01

I'm like everyone else, the latest fundraising is a bit of a shock, I thought they might need some money in Q1 but this is much sooner than expected, and leaves a bit of a sour taste. Clearly it's to do with them running a bit behind targets on both Rx and revenues.

But the more I think about this, the more I think it's not the end of the world.

* Despite the sour taste of the blatant insider trading, it's a sub-10% dilution of the shares. Anyone who can't accept an occasional 10% during the pre-profit stage of a growth company shouldn't be investing in growth companies.

* Prescriptions are growing hockey stick. Revenues are trailing, but they have a plan to deal with that which seems credible (and they now have the cash to do it).

* The new loan is not on any significantly worse terms than the previous OAP convertible loan, in fact it's better in the sense that it's not convertible. The main difference is the covenants, which do put the company under pressure to hit them, or else raise more equity. To me this is only a problem if the share price is very low. If they miss a covenant and need to raise say $5m but revenues are now rapidly catching up, then raising it at 20p is a very small dilution.

The bottom line is, do you (a) trust the management, and (b) think they have the skills (along with Viatris) to deliver over the next 15 months or so? Personally I don't think the management are crooks or frauds so (a) is a tick. On (b) while I definitely understand the concerns, and there's certainly a clear risk, I'm comforted to an extent by the Viatris presence I personally think the risk/reward at less than $100m cap is still quite good.

Good luck all