Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[weatherman] 11/1/2021 13:47

I can see a takeover coming - it may be the best way out. They should have had a small placing imo well above 100p to keep themselves cash positive.

[ramnik007] 11/1/2021 13:46

Looks like heavily discounted placing on the cards hence the sell off by some institutions in the know perhaps. What a bloody mess in how leadership have managed negotiations in US.

[innittowinit] 11/1/2021 13:34

What an oppprtunity for Norgine or the like...

[nobbygnome] 11/1/2021 12:21

Likewise I am buying back at these levels. Seems mad to me to value this company at £55 million....

[volsung] 11/1/2021 12:01

Got a few more for 48p. Probably throwing good money after bad

[best1467] 09/1/2021 20:13

Well Nordgine numbers will be out this month if they disappoint and issue very little encouraging guidance then we could be looking at 50p placing at best

[parc1] 08/1/2021 17:20

Even if either of the remaining two companies come on board, it looks like those companies are viewing limited application.

Shield have now considered the ballsy approach of going it alone but it is almost like we are watching Tim in slow motion. It is inevitable that Shield will need to go it alone. They need to make the stretch and realise that they should get on with the placing.

We are nearly back to the original slump level. The company was given some respite above 60p and did not capitalise on it. It seems really bad that the company are going to keep chewing over and over their decision of "whether or not to go it alone".

They already know what the answer is and it would be welcomed by the majority. The longer Tim leaves it, the more pain he is causing, the more the share price will slide.

Going on previous updates, the pi's as usual will be left in the dark, later seeing ii's picking up the placing shares at rock bottom wherever that is.

At this point, best case scenario is seeing a placing next week. I would think at 45-50p.

[glasswala] 08/1/2021 13:05

When will they announce the placing for their friends and family at hugely diluting rates. I bet they will discount it big time and say that yhis is the bedt we can get.

[glasswala] 08/1/2021 12:19

What scumbag these directors are. Every day they keep on getting richer by taking whopping salaries and everyday the share price slides due to their utter greed & negligence. They have shown contempt to us PI shareholders who they have been truly shafted big time. To make matters worse they continue to remain at the helm of the company they have destroyed they are totally shameful and should resign immediately.

[stevee1234] 07/1/2021 14:00

OK Onceaday, thanks for your advice.

[onceaday] 07/1/2021 13:32

Hi Steeve1234

I'm not sure that costs would be significantly lower. Shield have stated that the marketting of drugs in the US has changed as a result of the pandemic. They expect to recruit only a modest salesforce and to make use of virtual presentations to large groups.of physicians. The issue most likely to affect early sales is agreeing pricing with payers and then obtaining appropriate hospital codes. It may be that agreements are struck with regional payers in the first instance which could see your scenario play out..

[stevee1234] 07/1/2021 12:18

onecaday, I agree with your points on competent people, but the point I am trying to make is that if you maximise the benefit of those competent people on a focused launch in one prominent state or area it would stand more chance of working by fine tuning the launch as it progresses and for minimum cash burn. Then the subsequent raising of capital could be done with more certainty of success and consequently at less of a discount. All round the benefit to risk ratio would be much better.

[onceaday] 07/1/2021 11:55

Success of a self launch will be dependant on the competency.and experience of whoever leads in the US. The biggest mistake Shield can make is to underestimate the time it will take to become cash flow positive which is what happenned in Europe. Debt financing is relatively expensive at around 12%pa so expect an equity raise at a significant discount to the prevailing price.

If the US launch goes well I would expect Shield to become a US centric business with the current UK management team replaced by their US counterparts.

[stevee1234] 07/1/2021 09:02

I would also imagine that if they get it right in one location it will almost sell itself in others

[stevee1234] 06/1/2021 23:38

If they do choose to go it alone in the US why wouldn't they build up their business progressively, like say starting in California to prove the concept at a fraction of the national cost. I know the patent only last so long but I would have thought any prudent business management team would prove the concept first before betting the whole company on getting it right first time.

[whatno] 06/1/2021 16:38

The issue weighing on the price is a potential fundraiser. In order to ensure a successful uptake, it's likely to be at a significant discount to whatever the prevailing share price is at the time.

[najatmughrabi] 06/1/2021 16:05

Can someone explain in a simple way, what is happening with STX? Should I sell or they will recover? Thank you

[innittowinit] 06/1/2021 14:23

@ 2theduke: every financial statement they have ever made (never mind research notes) as a plc has had a 'going concern' statement attached to it and will continue to do so until they are cash positive.

[luisfrg] 06/1/2021 14:19

Totally agree...

The shares have over-reacted to the “lack of deal” news and should recover quickly once the uncertainty is removed.

[luisfrg] 06/1/2021 14:18

LATEST RESEARCHLatest corporate researchLatest tax enhanced reviewsSubscribe to our latest researchWHAT WE DOInvestment research servicesTax enhanced research servicesBespoke consulting servicesABOUTAbout Hardman & CoCase studiesThe teamNews, podcasts & insightsContact usOUR TEAMNEWS & EVENTSAbout Hardman & CoCase studiesThe teamNews, podcasts & insightsCONTACT US

 

COVID-19: - Our Commitment to Client Service & Investor Communications

LIFE SCIENCESShield Therapeutics PlcReassessing the US opportunity06 JAN 2021 / CORPORATE RESEARCHBy Dr Martin Hall

DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT

STX is a commercial-stage company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency (ID). Feraccru®/Accrufer® has been approved by the regulators in both Europe and the US. For various reasons, STX has been unable to secure a commercial partner for Accrufer in the US. Consequently, the board is now considering an STX-led launch option, thereby retaining all the US profits. Financial modelling shows the logic of this option, but it would necessitate financing the working capital requirements covering the next two years in the region of £25m-£30m.

Strategy: STX’s strategy has been to out-license commercialisation rights to partners with appropriate expertise in target markets. Although this strategy has been successful in Europe and China, the company has not been able to secure a satisfactory deal for the US, which has necessitated a re-think.US options: During multiple US commercialisation discussions, potential partners have shared with STX management considerable intelligence about the US sales and marketing opportunity for Accrufer. Based on this information and its own research, the board has concluded that STX could launch Accrufer by itself.Financial implications: Financial modelling suggests that retention of the commercialisation rights and profits to Accrufer in the US results in substantially higher returns for shareholders. However, to achieve this, the company will need additional working capital of £25m-£30m for the next two years.Risks: Operationally, the main risk is that of execution, with little in-house commercial experience; however, STX has begun to address this by recruiting experienced US commercial managers. Finance will also be required, potentially through a combination of specialist debt and equity.Investment summary: Subject to financing being available, the STX-led option for Accrufer appears to be the best option for shareholders. The attributes and positioning off Accrufer are well-suited to the COVID-19 environment, eliminating the hospital attendance risk. The shares have over-reacted to the “lack of deal” news and should recover quickly once the uncertainty is removed.

[2theduke] 06/1/2021 13:15

Well that research note clearly now states their is a going concern risk based on accessing working capital. The Auditors will now need some reassuring for their sign off comments.

[kop202] 06/1/2021 12:08

https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hardmanandco.com%2Fresearch%2Fcorporate-research%2Freassessing-the-us-opportunity%2F&data=04%7C01%7C%7C8b2c773be9ca460f373108d8b23ace61%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637455312917122216%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=YRAbN9KutLrLF4M5hqzgSsKXfFeIW%2FPoeTEftQq%2B4mI%3D&reserved=0

[kop202] 06/1/2021 10:49

Yep 50p ish...should be the bottom.....and I am tempted to average down......but have decided to wait and see if they can make a go of it alone in the States....And then timelines come into it.We all have our runners and riders .Who would have forseeen after twelve months peddling their wares in the US they would turn round and say actually well do whole thing ourselvesWouldnt surprise me if they revert to planA. Announce a deal and the share price gaps uo to £1.50So fair enough in this case topping up is probably a safe bet