Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[terminator101] 15/1/2021 20:24

Directors buying equity at this level on the open market would give more confidence that they will get a partner, but no doubt he PDMR rules and the Nomad would stop them this close to material news. Just think there's less risk here once they are funded either way. If I miss a big jump then so be it, but the old CEO selling out completely is a big red flag to their ability to attract a partner.

[hodhasharon] 15/1/2021 20:18

More shares were traded this week than any other week since listing and the share price barely moved. That to me smells of institutional accumulation.

[terminator101] 15/1/2021 20:10

Chance you take isn't it. But they keep emphasising the going it alone, and the Directors having to loan money in the short term is also a bit of a worry because it's less likely that they would borrow money to pay off debt, whereas no problem paying off debt with an equity raise. Indeed can even see the Directors doing an equity conversion if the price is attractive enough.

[hodhasharon] 15/1/2021 20:07

What happens if a partnership deal is completed at the 11th hour, negating the need to go it alone/raise funds?

[t0pgrader] 15/1/2021 18:01

Probably delighted to have bought in size at the offer at what is a v attractive price.

[parc1] 15/1/2021 17:17

When it is too easy to buy that number of shares at that price I would be concerned.
I wonder how the buyer feels on reflection.

[t0pgrader] 15/1/2021 17:00

420,000 post close BUYS

[frrinvest] 15/1/2021 12:44

Very good anyalysis t0grader.

Plus an outside chance of complete takeover of STX at a price much higher than current.

[t0pgrader] 15/1/2021 10:37

This is probably the nearest thing I've seen to a one-way upside bet.

Ignoring the US market altogether the share price is on F 2022 PE of just 11.5 which offers good fundamental value and provides serious downside protection.

If STX complete a licence deal for the USA with a 3rd party (which would remove talk of a fundraise & deliver minimum $30m upfront payment) it would be absurd if the share price didnt at least revert to the status quo ante in Dec ie at least double the current level. furthermore, with the knowledge gained of the US market and the work done on developing their own go-to-market strategy the co is in a stronger negotiating position with the remaining parties.

Or if STX go it alone in the USA the revenue per sale would be x3 higher and just 3% market share delivers PBT of $150m pa until patent expiry in 2035. The cost to do so is an equity raise of about £12m of which approx 60% should be covered by the institutional investors leaving a requirement of just c£5m from PIs and new institutions. PIs have been assured they will be able to purchase on same terms as institutions so no compulsory dilution. Hardly challenging or unattractive.

The fallback option is a sub-optimal out licence deal which would bring a smaller upfront payment but it's still a deal that would bring substantial revenues that are not accounted for in the current market cap.

Not long to wait - the CEO has committed to a decision by end March 21

Plus: STX expect to licence another territory in 2021

Plus: by eliminating the need for intravenous hospital treatment the product is a Covid beneficiary

Plus: $11.4m royalty payment due from Ask once product is approved for sale in China (12 week additional study required with IBS sufferers)

Plus: the CEO purchased £69,000 shares in Dec 20 at a share price 40%+ above the current level

Plus: the CEO's Dec 2020 share options are only exercisable in 2021 in tranches starting at a market cap of £175m Vs £66m today

Plus: company has sufficient cash until end 21 so no short-term keep the lights on placing

[frrinvest] 15/1/2021 10:06

"The work in the US is well advanced and covers preparations for all activities and organisational matters which will be implemented quickly should we decide to launch Accrufer(R) ourselves including the supply chain, pricing and market access, selling and marketing, and regulatory compliance. Discussions are also taking place with several companies which could co-promote or sub-license Accrufer(R) in specific therapy areas which could complement a Shield led launch. Launch stocks of Accrufer(R) have been manufactured in readiness for whichever option we choose."

plus many other positives in the RNS including China.

[hodhasharon] 15/1/2021 09:41

We're accumulating.....chill ya boots. Watch another channel, and come back when we're on the rise to 350p.

[lennonsalive] 15/1/2021 09:37

Yes going great guns today

[hodhasharon] 15/1/2021 08:42

I think it's reacting really well. If the update was negative, we'd be up 10% to offload to the crowd. The fact we've battened down the hatches to put off short term traders is very positive. As is the update:

"Feraccru(R) 2020 sales volumes in Europe increased by 70% year-on-year"

It won't take that long at this rate of increase!

[knowing] 15/1/2021 08:41

Wrong- the update went down well as the stock was marked up at open. It's the traders selling into the news

[luisfrg] 15/1/2021 08:40

Way undervalued... back later this year when over £1 for sure

[lennonsalive] 15/1/2021 08:39

It's not shorters, it's the fact the update hasn't gone down well this morning

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2021 08:22

Sadly it looks like the shorters hold sway for now but for anyone who can see the bigger picture, there is long term value here without a doubt IMHO!

[t0pgrader] 15/1/2021 08:14

FC value just Eur & China @120p per share. share price target 550% higher

[frrinvest] 15/1/2021 08:03

I think the update is very positive. All options are still very much open including out licencing. I like it.

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2021 07:56

Looks like it will open 57-60 so a few shorters may be a little worried!

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2021 07:44

I see the bashers are out in force today. I guess there are a few shorters relying on a fund raising. Hopefully they will be left high and dry!