Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[whatno] 15/1/2021 07:37

700k of revenue? Assuming 15% sales royalty, Norgine sold £4.6 of goods across the whole of Germany and 50% of England. That is worryingly small.

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2021 07:30

Most definitely not in love with the share and the management have clearly been poor. However, you shouldn't let past history cloud your judgement. They have a great approved drug in a large market and at this level are clearly undervalued whatever course they take. I don't think anyone can dispute that statement.

[2theduke] 15/1/2021 07:26

It’s shocking how much faith there is still in this company, FDA approval was two years ago.
Sales were up 70% but only if you change last years sales figures they reported(?).
Sales in China “should” lead to a royalty payment.
A clinic study in the us outstanding that will cost millions and was a condition of the fda approval , which if completed “could” improve the market size.
I mean come on, if people still believe here plus the material going concern due to the need to raise £30m ...
I agree with you two, it’s a really good example of being in love with a share vs the reality.
It was the same at £1.5 when the delays first started.

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2021 07:21

And again the update reiterates they are still discussing licensing with third parties. There may not be a fund raising!

[terminator101] 15/1/2021 06:34

Saw this being ramped by the usual suspects on twitter and LSE and thought I would look in and see what the noise was about. Pretty solid product from the looks of it, good market to tap into, but the execs are paid too much (previous CEO paid more than half a million) and they haven't used real cash to buy their shares (and the incentive schemes only require them to keep 50%, i.e. they can exercise their "options" and then immediately sell 50% to cover the cost). Bottom line is that it makes not a jot of difference to them if there is massive dilution. There is a material uncertainly in the accounts and that's not taking account of the US fundraising that is needed. I can see a massive raise being done and massive dilution in the near future, wouldn't be surprised if it was down at the 30p level. If the ramp brigade start into overdrive and the price starts rising with claims that the "seller is out" be wary as it may be the broker forward selling a placing.

[supernumerary] 15/1/2021 00:32

Every day that goes by, the company's case for a raise or deal gets weaker. Lucky there's good strong management with a clear vision of the way forward and proven ability to achieve results.

[t0pgrader] 14/1/2021 22:14

There's no reason why the placing / open offer couldnt be at a premium to the prevailing share price if the investment case is strong enough

[lovewinshatelosses] 14/1/2021 20:23

Well, I would prefer a non-dilutive fund raise. I held off buying more recently, as I felt we would test the year lows; I hope that now will not happen, but I cannot see how they could raise above 50p levels at present.
I would also need to see some very significant insider purchases to be encouraged to join in with any OO. I know the potential keeps being mentioned here - it is what brought me to the table in the first place - but really, the BOD need to earn investor faith back here, IMO. The jury remains well and truly out!

[supernumerary] 14/1/2021 19:20

oad - Seems to me the seller has inflated expectations compared to what the buyer is prepared to pay.

The usual way out is to back-end load the deal. That way the buyer who's nervous doesn't have to really shell out until sales are proven, and the seller knows that even if the up-front isn't so great the enormous future sales he expects will generate massive profits down the line. Lots of scope for negotiation in that sort of deal.

And then of course you can just bribe the board - eg shed-load of money for their out of the money options in return for a recommendation. Don't laugh, seen it done.

[hodhasharon] 14/1/2021 19:12

Close of play Thursday and we're looking at the biggest weekly volume since listing.

[hodhasharon] 14/1/2021 19:10

344-529p is the target range. Trends, volumes, and waves all lining up for a big move. News must be imminent.

[onceaday] 14/1/2021 17:33

Shandypants

The proposition is compelling... So I keep asking myself, why do we not have a deal? Surely, big pharma would be interested in a drug with peak sales of that magnitude...

As an investor, I would really like to see some truly independent analysis of the likely business oportunity.

[shandypants2] 14/1/2021 17:08

Hi, before xmas i emailed the company and expressed my disappointment at a number of issues - the main one being i felt they had sabotaged their own share price by announcing the POTENTIAL need for fundraising before a decision had been made and why didn't they do it say in the Autumn when the share price was over 100% higher?

I actually received a reply from the CEO directly (Tim Watts for those who may doubt me).

Anyway in subsequent discussions Tim was very open and honest regarding the situation.
Nothing he told me was price sensitive and is mainly covered in the Dec 2020 presentation.
A quick summary of the main points are 1. STX are still in discussions with a number of US companies and there remains good interest 2. no decision has been made regarding way forward for US but it will be by end of Q1 2021. Both STX brokers felt rns had to mention potential cost of going it alone in US as questions would be asked 3. Tim expecting some revenues from US in Q2 2021 regardless of route to market 4. in US you can identify the doctors prescribing iron supplements etc so you can focus your efforts on these people 5. i mentioned US revenue estimates were quite conservative at only 2% of iron prescriptions - he agreed but felt a 5% figure was too large!! It is £900m profit a year!! 6. Norgine should soon be selling in Italy, Spain and France in 2021 and also in Oz and NZ once regulatory approval given - delayed due to covid. 7. China progressing and as per expected timescales 8. if a fundraise is required there will be an open offer too so existing shareholders can participate. He was very sure on that point as he felt it important.

[nobbygnome] 14/1/2021 16:37

Just a reminder that a third party deal is still possible which would NOT require a fund raising. That would cause a rapid rerating way above £1.

We should hear fairly soon....

[innittowinit] 14/1/2021 15:12

I would hope and expect that with a US team in place it will have operational/management control of activities whilst the Board and CEO will just be involved in the corporate stuff. TW will know that as he has loads of experience of how companies work and he doesn;t come across at all as having an ego that will get in the way.

We just need them to provide clarity asap and take advantage of the current interest.

[hodhasharon] 14/1/2021 14:35

Cheers Parc. Keep your chin up. Looks very positive from a Technical perspective.

If it's not 140p by the summer I'll eat TW's hat.

[onceaday] 14/1/2021 14:05

EKCS..

Spot on.

The CEO (Aurinia) also said recruiting an experienced, highly motivated sales force who already had relationships in place with target physicians was key.

I really hope they appoint a strong, experienced leader in the US. The problem is that you can't have two CEO's and Tim knows that!

[parc1] 14/1/2021 13:53

Hod, the product ticks the boxes but the management never cease to surprise with inability to deliver.

That together with impending massive dilution is the problem.

The product and market analysis is one thing but management and real market uptake (numerous US companies were not prepared to offer upfront cash) are the variables to consider.

[hodhasharon] 14/1/2021 13:46

I have just had this tipped to 350p! What's your view?

[ekcs] 14/1/2021 13:08

and making sure the people involved are absolute experts in the space... Would be good to know who the US people are.

[stevee1234] 14/1/2021 12:47

Hey Onceaday, back to my argument about doing it progressively, maybe in California first.