Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 29/9/2020 13:25

The 1.5k buy was mine......and I am looking to pick up more shortly via spreadbet.

[bobaxe1] 25/9/2020 15:42

If taken 1.5 k just now

[nobbygnome] 25/9/2020 11:05

And another 1000 in my wife's account...

[nobbygnome] 25/9/2020 10:47

Bought another 1000 via spreadbet......

[nobbygnome] 25/9/2020 10:44

Nothing offered on the RSP at 140p; the best price is 144! The next movement should be up...

[shandypants2] 24/9/2020 12:30

good to see strong support around the 140p level as confidence of an US deal returns.
From here we should see £2 plus once the deal is announced, assuming half decent terms.
My only slight concern is that Tim mentioned it is unlikely to be before end of Sept now. Whilst a few weeks delay is not a big concern if we get passed October and still no deal i can see some negativity return, especially as i expect the market to be quite choppy then. Hopefully we get a deal in October and so proves irrelevant. Keep the faith

[harrykewell] 24/9/2020 09:27

Yes, with the exception of Diurnal (DNL).

[best1467] 22/9/2020 15:07

Interesting to see support at higher level a break from the usual pattern interesting

[adman50] 22/9/2020 13:07

STX is the only ray of sunshine at the moment lol.

[peachie 74] 21/9/2020 09:09

Got to be a big buy order
They will take 20k off me, won’t sell more than 1000

[frrinvest] 21/9/2020 08:22

My top up buy order went through after 20 minutes.

[peachie 74] 21/9/2020 07:06

Agreed re changes, I just thought it will give newbies a better idea of figures involved and the potential here. GLA

[profkevin] 20/9/2020 17:50

Peachie, thank-you for re-posting - but as you know a few things have changed since then. But as you know the current valuation is silly if you are prepared to wait for the lengthy sales cycle in the US/Europe and then China etc to kick-in. For me its like putting money in the bank to earn a lot of interest in the years to come. Hope it holds/goes down! Got a big payment at the end of the month coming in - wife thought it was for her new car - with a 'no-brainer' like this she can wait!

[peachie 74] 20/9/2020 11:18

An old valuation post ...


Valuation
We are leaving our target valuation unchanged at 350p. We use a DCF model to value
Shield Therapeutics, with Feraccru/Accrufer estimated to be worth £412m, which implies
352p per share. This target price, however, excludes:
?The potential value of European milestones from Norgine, which are dependent on
reaching pre-defined in-market net sales of Feraccru. These amount to €50m, of which
€2m is expected to be paid in 2022 on completion of a paediatric study (due to start in
early 2020) and approval of a once-daily formulation of Feraccru. The balance is
expected to be paid over the next 5-10 years.
?Any milestones from a US partnering deal. Given the size of the US market (volume and
price) and the fact that Shield was able to negotiate a licensing deal for Europe at a time
of financial stress that generated an £11.0m upfront payment with €54.5m of
development and commercial milestones, we estimate that Shield could receive as much
as $50m upfront with over $100m of additional revenue-based milestones in the US.
?Any additional development and commercial milestones for China as well as for other
markets such as Japan and Korea

Not only are there many exclusions to the above but a £412m NPV seems quite conservative IMHO.

I am sure there was an interview last year when then CEO stated at its peak Feraccru could generate £500m p.a revenues. Not sure if this is total revenues or just royalties to STX, but even assuming the latter at 20% that's c£100m to STX and probably 90% profit. If so that would make us a £1bn company.

On page 5 of this Feb 2020 presentation just 5% of US market (so ultra conservative) generates a NPV of £821m alone so this makes the £412m estimate very low.


hxxps://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/STX-Corp-Deck_Investor-presentations-6_11Feb20.pdf

[profkevin] 19/9/2020 10:30

Just a thought - the Hardman Note has £13.75m product sales (royalties)for 2022. With a good US partner and royalties of 20% (below Europe) this could be much higher - but the short term view is not that important. It's all about what % of the US, Europe, China etc markets Feraccru/Accruer take off IV infusions? Given equivalence has now been confirmed with the elimination of hospital visits and additional infusions, especially with COVID, one would speculate a very large percentage. From memory a £2billion+ market and growing. So what price Shield in 5 - 10 years time (a slow sales cycle) if it takes share away from IV? Potentially huge uplift from where we are now. Only possible cloud is something else comes along that is equivalent or better. But on balance surprised we are currently at this price, notwithstanding a good week - hope there are many more good weeks when a good US deal is announced.

[profkevin] 18/9/2020 15:27

Yes, and I have 12 hour days with only 80 minutes for breaks - still students pay £35k - so they deserve their pound of flesh

[toffeeman] 18/9/2020 15:03

>> Kev

and there's me complaining I have 6 hrs on-line each week this term!

[profkevin] 18/9/2020 14:29

Yes, strange - would not expect an RNS on this

[profkevin] 18/9/2020 14:28

Just did 9 days virtual, start again Tuesday for 6 days - start time 6.00 - time zones are not good for a global MBA - now doing the marking - which is good fun when the work is good - not so much fun when its poor

[adman50] 18/9/2020 14:27

Thanks Professor strange it came by way of an RNS was all excited for a second the deal had been done!

[toffeeman] 18/9/2020 14:24

>> Guile members

there seem to be a lot of us here!

finished your teaching for this week Kev?

[profkevin] 18/9/2020 14:22

The RNS gives a link to Hardman's note:
hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/optimism-over-us-deal/

[adman50] 18/9/2020 14:05

Just got a notification from HL there is an RNS out...

STX RNS Announcement (Hardman & Co Research: Shield Therapeutics (STX): Optimism over US deal)

Very weird I can't see anything on it....

[peachie 74] 18/9/2020 12:59

I sense another background buyer. Taking a lot to lower this , sells being absorbed and MMS keeping buy price stable.

Owners beware. Sell at your own risk 😂

[peachie 74] 18/9/2020 12:43

Yes some big buys going through here now.

Very interesting.

Iron deficiency is worth billions worldwide. And STX is spreading worldwide.
I can see why IIs would be joining in.
The inevitable US deal will absolutely derisk this share, so not surprising Institutions might be accumulating. When the deal happens I’d be amazed if this wasn’t 250/300.