Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[spandy83] 19/9/2019 16:40

Gonna ask it again; time for a maiden divi?

[bountyhunter] 19/9/2019 15:08

Yes picked up on that, at least there is still HUR to get up for tomorrow!

[lord gnome] 19/9/2019 14:28

RRE now reporting next Tuesday as well, bh. Could be a most interesting and rewarding day.

[dcarn] 19/9/2019 14:20

Any thoughts for price action on Tuesday?

A set of stonking Interims where the market finally realise how cash generative we are since the BKR acquisition, ending the day at around £1.80.

[winston8643] 19/9/2019 14:18

Same old story ,added a few more , all marked as sells.

[bountyhunter] 19/9/2019 12:32

Apologies it's HUR Interims expected tomorrow, that will save me looking for SQZ Interims at the same time!

[fanshaw] 19/9/2019 12:20

Interims on Tuesday 24th September

[blueeyes13] 19/9/2019 12:17

Interims on Tues 24 Sep not tomo according to RNS last week, anything changed ?

[bountyhunter] 19/9/2019 12:00

I certainly expect that I will need to update at least a few of the items on my list, for reference...

...it's not all about the summer spot gas price as the gas price varies seasonally and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]
35,000 b/d of oil equivalent in the first five months of 2019
[ hxxps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/082719-interview-serica-energy-sees-buying-opportunities-amid-brexit-price-weakness ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Potential Erskine further development - as operator of Erskine, Ithaca have highlighted in their June 2019 presentation "Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets" for Erskine.

13) With Brent priced in USD, Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

14) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

15) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

16) Further accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 19/9/2019 11:57

Pre Interims 2019, for reference...

...it's not all about the summer spot gas price as the gas price varies seasonally and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]
35,000 b/d of oil equivalent in the first five months of 2019
[ ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Potential Erskine further development - as operator of Erskine, Ithaca have highlighted in their June 2019 presentation "Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets" for Erskine.

13) With Brent priced in USD, Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

14) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

15) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

16) Further accretive deals

17) Maiden dividend?

[bountyhunter] 19/9/2019 11:52

At the risk of jinxing anything I must say this is looking very good as we head towards Interims tomorrow [edit, or Tuesday! ;]

[captainfatcat] 19/9/2019 11:50

Good to see the share price on the up again.

[pineapple1] 19/9/2019 11:48

From memory i think COP was crippled by the Egyptian Petroleum company hanging onto cash owed to them from production so they were unable to efficiently service their debts.
imho

[steelwatch] 19/9/2019 10:14

👁️
28065;️

[dr pinkstone] 19/9/2019 07:17

Never invest in a country you would not be safe walking down the main street of the capital--the Stans,Iraq,Nigeria,Morroco etc

[nigelpm] 18/9/2019 22:04

If anyone was ever invested in Circle Oil you would know to stay a million miles away from anything in Morocco.

Nothing to do with the geography and everything to do with its knackered balance sheet.

[bountyhunter] 18/9/2019 19:20

Fortunately for SQZ that became immaterial.

[rogerlin] 18/9/2019 19:18

SQZ did of course have interests in drills offshore Morocco, Foum Draa (Dec 13 Cairn) and Sidi Moussa (Oct 14 Genel) but neither came in.

[bountyhunter] 18/9/2019 15:39

Re Morocco another duff investment was SOU but their interests are onshore. Just got out of that one in time with a small profit at the time of the mention of 'golden tickets' there.

[dunderheed] 18/9/2019 09:07

Maybe EOG? They've just rns'd a barn storming acquisition in Morocco?!
Looks like EOG have stolen a march on the mkt (ahem yet again!!).

[fardels bear] 18/9/2019 09:05

No Dh I though some other company entirely.