Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 20/8/2019 17:18

Agree cfc, this has been held down for someone in a dull August market. Perhaps things are about to get interesting again. We are due another deal, surely? :-))

[bountyhunter] 20/8/2019 17:18

A decent close today.

[captainfatcat] 20/8/2019 15:59

Wonder if the AT trades after are the seller trying to scramble back in or another buyer pushing the price up knowing the 175k was intended to be a blocker.

Certainly the share price action over the last week or so I have thought has looked a bit suspect.

[pineapple1] 20/8/2019 15:54

Well if someone intended to scare buyers away by placing a large block on the offer they just lost 175k on one trade at 104.6.
Bet that surprised them....

[captainfatcat] 20/8/2019 15:54

wondered what was up with the sudden activity just happened to take a look at the right time.

[pineapple1] 20/8/2019 15:46

back to main thread..

[bountyhunter] 19/8/2019 22:34

It's not all about the summer spot gas price as the gas price varies seasonally and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Potential Erskine further development - as operator of Erskine, Ithaca have highlighted in their June 2019 presentation "Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets" for Erskine.

13) With Brent priced in USD, Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

14) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

15) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

16) Further accretive deals

[general george] 19/8/2019 22:25

80p! I like the sound of that. Will be all over that, along with many posters on this board I expect!

I bought a fair few at 103p on Thursday. Will go for some more on further weakness.

[circles of stone] 19/8/2019 18:14

Fed up with datait and his, obvious ranting deramping. Filtered.
He does sound very similar to chestnuts.

[newkotb1] 19/8/2019 10:50

Datait

That was not the answer to my question ..... link please, unless you are totally making it up ...... as if (lol)

Once again, please provide a link for the report, once done I will take your posts more seriously, until then ..... well everyone knows your agenda.

[datait2019] 19/8/2019 10:21

This is in a downward trend as interest has all but gone here

[newkotb1] 19/8/2019 09:05

Datait,

So, please enlighten us and provide a link to this mythical report.

Or better still, stop wasting your time with false statements and start getting your pens and pencils ready for September.

Just for the record, SQZ production has never been higher than now !!

[datait2019] 19/8/2019 08:54

Gap closing in to 80p

[datait2019] 19/8/2019 08:49

It's now falling daily No interest Recent production report caused share price to fallNot climbWas sqz a little overhyped and rose too quicklyThat's what analysts are saying so a pull back to around 90p is inevitable

[bountyhunter] 17/8/2019 18:33

It's not all about the summer spot gas price as the gas price varies seasonally and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Potential Erskine further development - as operator of Erskine, Ithaca have highlighted in their June 2019 presentation "Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets" for Erskine.

13) With Brent priced in USD, Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

14) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

15) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

16) Further accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 17/8/2019 18:31

Added number 12.

It's not all about the summer spot gas price as the gas price varies seasonally and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Potential Erskine further development - as operator of Erskine, Ithaca have highlighted in their June 2019 presentation "Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets" for Erskine.

13) With Brent priced in USD, Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

14) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

15) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

16) Further accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 17/8/2019 18:23

Yes worth keeping an eye on future presentations etc with regards to Erskine.

I didn't have that on my list (maintained on the mobile chart thread) so I have added it in...

[captainfatcat] 17/8/2019 17:06

Thanks for the link

[farmscan] 17/8/2019 13:52

It seems there may be some development opportunities for Erskine now that Ithaca is operator. From Ithaca's June presentation:

'Erskine
 Low cost HPHT gas-condensate field developed via a normally
unmanned platform
 Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets'

[fardels bear] 17/8/2019 12:10

Looks like it was a belting price. You watch us shoot up when the license is updated.

[farmscan] 17/8/2019 10:50

I have always felt more than a little aggrieved at the Ithaca take-out price, but having had a brief look back at the last IAE ops update less than a month before the takeover was announced, does it now look like it was a good price for Ithaca@ $646m or is Serica very cheap at £277m.

"Operations Update & 2017 Outlook

12 January 2017

Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) ("Ithaca" or the "Company") provides an operations update and guidance on the outlook for the year ahead.

Highlights

-- 2016 average production totalled approximately 9,300 boepd - exceeding full year guidance of 9,000 boepd

-- Forecast first hydrocarbons from the Stella field scheduled for February 2017, with the electrical junction box inspection and remediation work programme nearing completion

-- 2017 production anticipated to be in the range of 19,000 to 22,000 boepd, reflecting the updated Stella start-up schedule

-- Harrier field development programme launched - development drilling to be completed in 2017, with start-up of production expected in the second half of 2018

-- Forecast 2017 unit operating expenditure of approximately $18/boe, down nearly 30% on 2016 due to the positive impact of low cost Stella volumes on the production portfolio

-- Forecast 2017 capital investment programme of $70 million, primarily centred on Greater Stella Area ("GSA") activities, including development drilling on the Harrier field

-- Downside commodity price protection extended into 2018 - average volume of 7,600 boepd hedged to mid-2018 at an average floor price of $50/boe

-- Net debt at 31 December 2016 reduced to $598 million, down $67 million from the start of 2016"

[steelwatch] 16/8/2019 11:27

Seven Atlantic is still at the Bruce location.

[farmscan] 15/8/2019 19:36

Polaris on her way back to Aberdeen, wonder if we will hear what's going on.