Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 06/8/2019 19:31

Good to see you back posting as well. Great to have smart investors on board. This board has gone to wrack and ruin without you here - what's the gas price doing?

[nigelpm] 06/8/2019 19:20

Nice call GG - smart timing as well - going to do very well from this price I'd have thought.

[fardels bear] 06/8/2019 19:16

You can't count the 6000 nautical mile for your log though in a cruise ship.Sounds like fun. I'll show Mrs Bear. She's more mobile than Polar.

[captainfatcat] 06/8/2019 19:12

FB it was a small cruise ship we got as far north as the polar ice shelf before heading back down past the Jan Mayen islands which we had a good view of as we passed before calling into a handful of small ports around Iceland.

Steaming at 20 knots into a Force 9 on the way back from Iceland was fun 70 knots of wind on deck there wasn't many about for breakfast in the morning lol. Other than that the weather was really very good.

Also called into Invergordon in Scotland on the way back which had four or five drilling rigs and a few offshore support ships in the harbour.

Went with Holland America ship was MS Rotterdam, trip Spitzbergen and Iceland Explorer 20 nights. Booked last minute (three weeks prior to departure) outside cabin was just under £1300 pp for 20 nights including return flights to Amsterdam from Southampton. Clocked up just over 6000 nautical miles in the end.


8-)

[general george] 06/8/2019 19:11

I'm realistic.

Ie. lower spot price mean less profits. They still do. But the price is now 105p as opposed to 130p.

Doesn't mean it can't go lower still. If oil pukes it probably will.

Happy to buy at these levels.

[fardels bear] 06/8/2019 19:07

Yes but you were always a doom and gloom merchant.

[general george] 06/8/2019 18:56

I hope sub 100p comes. First order at 105p filled today.

[bountyhunter] 06/8/2019 18:20

MacBoatFace?

SQZ factors to consider...

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) With Brent priced in USD Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

13) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

14) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

15) Further accretive deals

[fardels bear] 06/8/2019 18:19

What was the boat?

[bountyhunter] 06/8/2019 18:17

Just as well the dad wasn't behind you CFC ;-)

Anyway you have missed nothing at all here!

Except I added another item to the list, can you spot it!? (not the last one)

[farmscan] 06/8/2019 18:14

Welcome back, not much going on here tho'.

[dunderheed] 06/8/2019 17:12

Is that the window cleaner re-born?

[joestalin] 06/8/2019 16:47

13) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

Datait2019
6 Aug '19 - 16:11 - 14427 of 14428 (Filtered)

[bared_bones] 06/8/2019 16:17

New handle datait? Lol. Serial deramper and all round xxxx #ignored

[alotto] 06/8/2019 16:04

Datait I hope you are wrong

[datait2019] 06/8/2019 15:55

Sub 100p coming soon

[bountyhunter] 05/8/2019 17:54

It's not all about the summer spot gas price as the gas price varies seasonally and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to up to 30k yearly average
[ 2019 Full Year production guidance of 26,000 - 30,700k boepd, updated 27Jun19 ]

2) Lower opex cost reducing from $18/boe
[ now $15/boe as announced on 27Jun19 ]

3) 2018 results only included one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine

4) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd

12) With Brent priced in USD Serica will benefit from the weak pound against the dollar.

13) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free
[ Cash, cash equivalents and term deposits of US$112.3 million at 31 May 2019 (vs. US$54.9 million at 31 December 18) ]

14) Namibia assets - BP have spent $50 million on 3D seismic in Sericas 4,180 sq kms licensed acreage in the Luderitz Basin Blocks, offshore Namibia, now a hot area again for exploration

15) Further accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 05/8/2019 17:54

Good point TA, I've slotted that one in as no.12

[bountyhunter] 05/8/2019 17:53

list updated

[fardels bear] 05/8/2019 17:48

Might not make much odds in a bit.