Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2019 07:31

Rowallan didn't cost Serica anything as it was a free carry and was only a low chance of success in any case. Clearly the news leaked out which clearly explains the drop yesterday which was nothing to do with gas prices as some were trying to lead us to believe.

[toogood4me] 04/4/2019 07:28

50p today When Oil company produces a duster it's carnage

[toogood4me] 04/4/2019 07:22

Will be a bloodbath today

[toogood4me] 04/4/2019 07:15

30-40p today

[toogood4me] 04/4/2019 07:15

Jog yesterday Today SQZ Carnage

[marvelman] 04/4/2019 07:10

That will make at least 2 posters happy for us. I do wish something could be done about the pre warning given to insiders which was now obvious by yesterdays price action.

[nigelpm] 04/4/2019 07:10

News clearly leaked yesterday. Might get another tank.

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2019 20:58

And also...

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April with TD early May. In the event of success, there is additional upside potential provided by the nearby Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which are geologically similar to Rowallan. The Rowallan prospect may also extend onto Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Cash rich / debt free

15) Looking for other accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2019 20:54

Yes anyone with a modicum of common sense will know that winter prices are always higher because it's colder in the winter and demand is higher. Also they don't sell throughout the year at today's spot price! How many times. And also...

uk gas prices are forecast to rise until 2023



(release date March 2019)

[fardels bear] 03/4/2019 20:49

I think you are choosing deliberately to misunderstand our point of view. What's the point of your banging on about the same thing all day every day when you know we're all lth and we're not going to be selling any time soon?

[general george] 03/4/2019 20:35

U lot crack me up.
Futures are because thats the cost if storing it until next winter.

Good grief..

Whats the spot price!?

Thats what they sell it at!

[fardels bear] 03/4/2019 18:37

Moi aussi.

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2019 18:35

Yes congratulations Dh, you'll be needing a few hanging baskets outside for which I would recommend the trailing variety of geranium. 😉

[fardels bear] 03/4/2019 18:34

Well done, Dh. Pub called the Three Amigos, is it?

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2019 18:27

From an earlier post here's a clickable link, release date March 2019...

uk gas prices forecast to rise until 2023

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2019 18:26

uk gas prices forecast to rise until 2023



(release date March 2019)

[farmscan] 03/4/2019 17:48

Just to redress the balance a bit, I see that gas is now over 34p. Just sayin'.

[nicnic1953] 03/4/2019 16:15

Dh ..congratulations on your new venture I hope in time u could post a third party email address ..so some of us lth can leave our username for u to filter and reply I'm back in UK next month for 6 months back in my motorcaravan just need a "rest from the gf" till Oct!..certainly not looking for any freebies ..I'm thinking of visiting guys who retired from supply boats in Aberdeen! I reckon u r en route ? ...nice to hear something different to gas /therm prices on this board !!

[pineapple1] 03/4/2019 16:10

Its bloody cold down here just outside London. Just had hail stones.

[pyemckay] 03/4/2019 16:04

gas prices go up and they go down. I assume most serious investors are not concerned at the current price.

[pyemckay] 03/4/2019 15:58

uk gas prices forecast to rise until 2023.
hxxps://www.statista.com/statistics/374970/united-kingdom-uk-gas-price-forecast/