Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 01/3/2019 15:02

FB - Marrons?

[bountyhunter] 01/3/2019 14:52

Looks like I got that prediction right anyway ;-)

[marvelman] 01/3/2019 14:40

Tres bon Froggy Fardel

[fardels bear] 01/3/2019 14:40

Reckon this guy with the head and shoulders must be doing a handstand.

[fardels bear] 01/3/2019 14:34

Tous les maroms sont descendu..

[pineapple1] 01/3/2019 14:31

Little spike there

[spandy83] 01/3/2019 14:29

Urm what just happened? :)

[bountyhunter] 01/3/2019 13:44

It's waiting for you to leave Dh before shooting up way past 130! :)

[fardels bear] 01/3/2019 13:27

Not at the moment. Almost as many shares in issue as one of the fat controller's disasters..

[fardels bear] 01/3/2019 13:24

He won't let it lie...

[bountyhunter] 01/3/2019 13:22

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April with TD early May. In the event of success, there is additional upside potential provided by the nearby Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which are geologically similar to Rowallan. The Rowallan prospect may also extend onto Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Looking for other accretive deals

15) not to forget the Golden Cross on the chart:

[dunderheed] 01/3/2019 13:10

Very small amount mate just to keep me looking.
Concept remains to be proven but am personally confident however a lot if other people I chat with less so?
And you?

[fardels bear] 01/3/2019 12:59

You in HUR, Dh?

[chestnuts] 01/3/2019 12:40

Abbot

USA gas is forecast to drop to $1.5 what price will LNG be then, which will be cheaper than our Natural gas

[dunderheed] 01/3/2019 12:33

Off out for weekend now.
Doesn't look like my 130p will be broken today but c'est la vie.
BH I thought you'd have nabbed that 42k over on hur!!

[bountyhunter] 01/3/2019 12:07

Absolutely and gas prices vary throughout the year in any case; in fact this time last year the gas price was pretty close to today's price. Also on top of overall production increases this year we get a higher proportion of production than last year, 25% more in fact, and 50% more than last year in 2020.

[fardels bear] 01/3/2019 11:39

Drop in gas price obviate by higher percentage nett to SQZ than last year and by producing a he'll of a lot more of it that last year.What's not to like..?

[bountyhunter] 01/3/2019 11:30

Dh, a Golden Cross occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average with both rising. It is seen by chartists as a bullish signal.

[chestnuts] 01/3/2019 11:17

Abbott you fail to the effect of LNG is going to have on the market as the USA floods the world with there cheap gas,

[general george] 01/3/2019 10:59

No one can 'hold a candle' to Chesnuts' charting :)

SQZ going well again. I'm not in, will wait for an opportunity if there is one.
But there are always opportunities around. Just about being patient and picking the right one!

My other Oil and gas stocks are doing well too,
Apart from SOCO :(

Gas price still looks to be carving out a bottom, will have to see how it goes.
Good luck all and a joy nice weekend to all.

Cheers GG

[chestnuts] 01/3/2019 10:57

Fardel

We use less gas in summer so normaly the price goes down its a case of supply and demand, and with the USA over supplying with LNG which will force european gas prices down, go do some reading about new gas supplies coming to the market around the world,

I think SQZ management are very good and the deal with BKR was just brill but the market in oil and gas companies as been strangled by the big money leaving ie divesting from the big pension funds and investment funds, you just have to look at the RRE deal buying ukMarathon oil they got it for peanuts £140m which you could assume even as been effecting the value of SQZ

[dunderheed] 01/3/2019 10:49

Well we will not have long to see?