Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 18:21

CoS, it was me who posted a link (twice now) about the two waivers mentioned by Bolton as granted but not yet released. GG also mentioned it at the time. See posts 9353 and 9021. One of those may possibly apply to Rhum as it fits the bill in terms of the context of the article but we will of course have to wait to find out.

[almsivi] 09/9/2018 18:18

CoS, that actually makes a lot of sense. If there is indeed a policy of letting existing licenses expire before granting new ones, then it stands to reason the US treasury would not be compelled to disclose them, given the sensitivity around stock manipulation and insider trading.

[fardels bear] 09/9/2018 17:53

I posted that the license was granted quickly but I was talking about the renewal last September. This time it's complicated by the transfer to SQZ and the Eyerainians...Certainly making us sweat for it, aren't they?

[circles of stone] 09/9/2018 17:35

Was it not posted earlier that Bolton had said that there were 2 waivers in the pipeline that had not yet been announced.And chestnuts... Please go over to oilprice.com and look at the articles on why gas prices are rising. The reasons are multiple and not to do with Rhum certainly not on the day ahead prices.

[pineapple1] 09/9/2018 17:06

almsivi.......someone certainly posted that it was issued very quickly. Can't remember who.
I'll see if i can find it but it was not as comprehensive as your answer.

Bounty.....noted and equally plausable.

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 17:06

As far as I am aware the extended delay last time was due to the requirement for new legislation to be enacted required for the TMS to be imposed; this time around that legislation is already in place.

[almsivi] 09/9/2018 17:02

pineapple, I don't think it's true that the previous waiver took a matter of days - if you look at the timeline of events,

2010 Rhum is shut down after UN resolution 1929

2013 the TMS is raised via an act of parliament

(

2013 - Rhum production restarts via TMS

2015: JCPOA agreed and sanctions lifted.

Sept 2016: BP OFAC License granted

Sept 2017 BP OFAC License granted / renewed

That shows that a whole year went by after the sanctions were lifted with the JCPOA before BP got issued their OFAC license from the treasury - definitly not just a few days

It also appears to me that the US Treasury does not renew or transfer license applications early and that BP & Serica have to wait the full year until expiry of the existing license before having a fresh application grants. In context, I can imagine that BP are working closely with Sericas legal team to ensure the exact conditions for a successful application - indeed Mitch even alluded to that point in the RNS. I cannot imagine that complex legal & commercial frameworks are a copy and paste matter & any mistakes introduced at application stage would be detrimental to the deal completing in time.

Whichever way you look at it, September 30th is a crucial date & on reflection it makes perfect sense to give themselves extra breathing room to ensure their application is successful.

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 16:59

pineapple, we have been spending a lot of time doing just that;
my take on the delay is that a temporary management scheme with an associated escrow account for IOC proceeds may be required as a condition for the waiver which cannot be put in place until after the current OFAC licence expires

[pineapple1] 09/9/2018 16:50

Sounds like something CNN ,Twitter etc did to Info wars because they don't like the message.
I,m not a snowflake. Quite happy to see Chestnuts posting . Both side of the arguement need to be heard.
They ran all the naysayers off BLVN in a similar fashion a few yrs ago (just before it tanked).
There are plenty of well informed posters here who can correct any inaccuracies which may be posted.
imho

[steelwatch] 09/9/2018 16:38

Ok. Temporary it is until we get the official word. Chesty, you're barred

[pineapple1] 09/9/2018 16:36

The fact that the waiver is taking so long is a little troubling . If the previous one was issued in a matter of days why a delay of months this time ,and in fact a delay beyond 30 Sep as RNS 'd Friday due to the above
That's the benchmark.
I,m not someone who believes dotting the lines can take 4 months or whatever. Such things with the info supplied could be done in an afternoon. The previous waiver was. They are not translating War and Peace into 50 languages with parchment and quill.
Nobody holds back good news but plenty hold back the bad.

Now we have a new leadership in the US ,one that operates differently to the old regime. Trump and his people can be unpredictable and although i,m as certain as one can be that a waiver will ultimately (with emphasis on the word) be approved there is a nagging doubt that Trump and proxies may wish to ruffle a few feathers on the world stage with extremely harsh implementation of sanctions.How better than with the so called special relationship. He'll turn over the tables ,smash the windows and after the police (media) have been and gone, sit down to pay for the damage (and issue the waiver)
Its certainly not out of the question the scenario playing out thus.
Long term no concern but SQZ could get somewhat volatile as the weeks progress.
imho

[fardels bear] 09/9/2018 16:23

This bear will grate his fardels.

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 15:29

Maybe a 'temporary management order' needs to be imposed here unless misinformation such as "the US administration are not giving waivers out" is corrected!

[steelwatch] 09/9/2018 15:19

OK - to ban, or not to ban. That is the question.

[robo175] 09/9/2018 14:40

Chestnuts that's utter rubbish, you have only got to Google why and its any of a number of things affecting the rise in wholesale gas prices, you really are getting desperate and embarrassing.

[general george] 09/9/2018 14:22

Sounds reasonable BH.

If it is being finalised would explain the extra few weeks.

If the deal was off, i guess the last RNS was the chance to say. Also they would look pretty stupid doing the BK deal, opening the office and getting everything else to a state of readiness.

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 14:04

for anyone who missed this (or chose to disregard it for their own reasons)



my take on this now is that if one is ours it has not been published yet as agreed conditions are still being put in place

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 13:47

Desperation sets in!

[general george] 09/9/2018 13:45

No thats cos Erskine is down, rofl

[chestnuts] 09/9/2018 13:18

As any one thought why the North sea gss price as been rising could it be because the market as anticipated that Rhum is going to shut down after all the market is forward thinking.

[fardels bear] 09/9/2018 13:09

I move that chestnuts is now deliberately disrupting this thread..

[almsivi] 09/9/2018 12:54

Sorry. This is wholly inaccurate. The OFAC license does expired on the 30th of September, but BP / Serica have NEVER needed the OFAC license to produce! The current OFAC license is for the provision of US service company support for their subsea manifolds, should they need it.

The 2nd stage of sanctions from Trumps EO kicks in on the 6th November, which if a new license for the service support and financial contingencies relating to IOC isn't in place, could be problematic for us.

Remember, Mitch Flegg did not rule out operating Rhum without a license if it came to it.

[almsivi] 09/9/2018 12:40

I've noted all of the same misinformation as GG and acted to address what I see are tacit untruths.

I've presented facts and publicly available documents in rebutting inaccuracies in chestnuts musings.

Nothing he has posted justifies why a license should not be issued & he's used opinion, conjecture and supposition to portray a negative outcome based on what might happen if the sitting president throws his toys out of the pram and wants to punish the UK for some imagined transgression.

There are most definitely risks and everyone needs to own that in their own way, but I'm not prepared to listen to someone spout utter garbage, nay, outright falsehoods in order to undermine people's confidence and justify their own insecurities.