Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[almsivi] 03/9/2018 12:20

My own view on this is already clear - I believe the deal will complete regardless of an OFAC waiver, if only for the reason that over the last 9 months (by my modest calculation) Serica have accrued a windfall payment of just under £100,000,000 before tax & expenses considerations. Cancelling the deal means saying "NO" to a large cash windfall when our only other source of revenue has been suspended since the start of the year. In any scenario you can present, there's absolutely no sense in the deal not completing.

[general george] 03/9/2018 09:55

Yep Seven Falcon back at Lomond now lol

[smokieuk] 02/9/2018 18:31

Probably left his phone behind. :-)

[steelwatch] 02/9/2018 17:37

Strange - Seven Falcon did an about-turn northeast of Peterhead and is now hotfooting it back to Lomond:



Obviously a last minute change of plan!

[bountyhunter] 02/9/2018 15:09

same here :-)

[general george] 02/9/2018 13:08

Modified deal or not, at the current price, its either huge upside if completes, or will drop if it doesnt. Some decent downside protection imho.

Dont get me wrong, i think it completes. And am positioned accordingly.

[bountyhunter] 02/9/2018 12:53

sorry GG but I agree with pineapple on this one as so much has been invested in he deal going ahead already, also Mitch has always been extremely positive and when asked if the deal would still go ahead without a waiver he didn't say no ( ok he didn't say yes either) so you have to consider the possibility of a modified deal in the circumstances suggested as opposed to this being simply a binary bet

[steelwatch] 02/9/2018 11:27

Seven Falcon departed for Nigg (collecting spool piece?):



Seven Eagle moved a mile or two yesterday so possibly tying the other end of whatever it's doing at Tyra...

[pineapple1] 02/9/2018 09:50

If the waiver is with held its not contingent on completing the deal, although the legals have said so.(as they should)
Perhaps BP will sweeten the deal if this occurs as the risk to SQZ would have increased.
Waiver or no waiver i still expect completion. Part of me would like a no waiver story to buy the drop as i,m as certain as i can be that ultimately a work around will be agreed in some sort of art of the deal renegotiation.
I,m in my echo chamber here ,but i,m happy to hold SQZ with BKR ,or without if everyone s worst fears occur. With Erskine soon back on line this is a money making machine.
imho

[general george] 02/9/2018 09:39

Although I don't forsee the waiver being withheld, if it is then Rhum will be shut down. If not resolved BP will start to look at decommissioning Bruce, as they were looking at previously.

As for SQZ, back to 35p I expect.
SQZ has Erskine back up shortly, Rowallan drill, and Columbus. Still 20m in the bank (give or take) and 140m in tax credit.

Binary outcome, half your money or double it imho.

If you ask me i cant see Rhum shut down, as it was producing during previous sanctions. There is a specific UK law for this.

And with the cash flow, if we come back in 12-18months, i wouldnt be surprised to see sqz at 200p.

[bountyhunter] 01/9/2018 20:55

then it's anyone's guess which is why the share price is not at twice the current level, my guess is that with that scenario the deal would go through anyway regardless of the waiver requirement or there would be a delay with the deal going through in the end since so much has already been invested in it in terms of staff transfers and a new HQ as well as in eliminating US dependencies wherever possible - BP really don't want to continue with the IOC connection due to their US interests and Deep Water Horizon legacy

assuming that the escrow account option is being considered then I think it unlikely that the waiver would be denied in those circumstances

imho

[fanshaw] 01/9/2018 20:35

what if no waiver forthcoming

[general george] 01/9/2018 20:16

Exactly right BH

[bountyhunter] 01/9/2018 19:50

That's what I thought. So Serica should not lose any revenue if an escrow option is imposed.

[general george] 01/9/2018 19:36

None of BPs revenue was ever held in escrow.

Only the IOC share.

[bountyhunter] 01/9/2018 19:09

Previously it was only said that "all revenue due to Tehran will be held until sanctions are lifted" with nothing saying that BP's half of Rhum proceeds would be also held in escrow so that shouldn't be necessary.



The delay was largely due to the new legislation that had to be put in place before the temporary management order could be imposed, so this time round with legislation already in place it should be a much quicker process if required.

[bountyhunter] 01/9/2018 19:02

Last time only the IOCs half of Rhum proceeds was in escrow unless I have that wrong?

[fanshaw] 01/9/2018 18:48

If Serica in order to complete deal with BP and Total could they pay the profit from

Rhum together with Iranian partners into escrow and exist with production from Brian

Keith and Erskine till sanctions are lifted ?.BP would have to do do the same if

agreeable to this arrangement. Total is not affected and receive there share of profit

from Bruce and Keith as normal this would keep fields operational. Are there other

scenarios posters came come up with.

[bountyhunter] 01/9/2018 18:33

"India, Iran’s top oil buyer after China, has so far not decided on the size of any cut to Iranian imports and continues to seek a waiver from the United States."

It may be that our waiver is in hold until the talks with India on Sept 6th are out of the way?

[circles of stone] 01/9/2018 17:42

Lol - he could take credit for "Making Great Rhum Again!"

[bountyhunter] 01/9/2018 16:18

has he been tweeting again?
maybe we will get the waiver in a tweet!

[xxx] 01/9/2018 16:01

@General George 'Congratulations to new Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. There are no greater friends than the United States and Australia!'...Donald Trump has other ideas!

[nicnic1953] 01/9/2018 13:24

I'm with you on that pine ...im quite happy to hold for another 2-4 years

[general george] 01/9/2018 13:18

Dont worry, it was a tongue in cheek comment.

I dont suppose he is even involved in any waivers.

But hopefully the OFAC etc are like minded, and issue waivers for friends and partners!

[circles of stone] 01/9/2018 12:41

GG I would be inclined to say that Woody Johnson's tweet related more to the F-35 Lightning tweet of the same day re F-25s armed with UK weapons. Of course, would be delighted to be proven wrong.