Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[general george] 11/9/2018 17:27

Should the deal go through, SQZ will get about $100m.
By year end a quarter of Erskine production as well.

IF it does complete, then based on that SQZ should be about £1.50 in quick time.

IF it doesn't then, I think downside would be to about 30p.

With all the knowns, ie both committed to the deal, as are Total, and UK law specifically to create a work around. I think it is a good risk/reward.

There has been consistent and someone heavy buying, which is reassuring.
whether it bodes well or not, is TBC.

[robo175] 11/9/2018 17:01

Yes it's difficult not to get ahead of yourself and think it's all a formality but there is no harm trying to work out what the Co may be worth going forward, you just hope your not tempting fate.

[captainfatcat] 11/9/2018 15:55

almsivi that's dangerous thinking but ultimately why many of us are here.....

I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch
I must not count my chickens before they hatch

But its very hard not to..

8-)

[almsivi] 11/9/2018 15:41

With Fardels "chickens" caveat - I did the following back-of-a-fag-packet numbers assuming 70% asset uptime on all Sericas potential assets and a forecast of 3 years production revenue based on the current year and current energy prices

End of:

2018 forecast Market Cap = £460m or £1.74 a share

2019 forecast Market Cap = £550m or £2.09 a share

2020 forecast Market Cap = £630m or £2.41 a share

2021 BKR full ownership of production: £1bn market cap or £3.69 a share

The above predicated on the years revenue being consistent for 3 years - if you factor in the stepped increase thats built into the deal - it looks more like £2.73 a share from 2019.

By no means an economic soothsayer so the above could be completely wrong in being optimistic or pessimistic - just using the information we have at hand.

[fardels bear] 11/9/2018 12:17

Loads have yes on this thread but it smacks of counting chickens.

[robo175] 11/9/2018 11:34

Anyway has anyone done a rough calculation of our Mkt Cap once BKR (BP and TOTAL)goes through and Erskine up running ?

[blueball] 10/9/2018 17:22

Next stop 107p stay long.

[smokieuk] 10/9/2018 16:33

Most of the buy trades were automated, just in case that has any significance. But then so were a few of the sells.

[general george] 10/9/2018 16:16

Gas up nearly 4% to 76.3p per therm.

#cashcow

[general george] 10/9/2018 13:11

Erskine news could give the share price a boost shortly.

Thats before any bkr news

[fardels bear] 10/9/2018 12:56

Aye, that old chestnut..

[bountyhunter] 10/9/2018 12:09

So much for the theory proposed over the weekend that once Friday's RNS had sunk in there would be a sell off!
I always felt it would be the opposite.

[general george] 10/9/2018 11:21

I looked at the 2 big trades as buys, despite what lse has them as.

Bid was 74.2/74.6 all morning and ask 77/77.40

Someone has put their hand in their pocket regardless.

2 parties to each trade, thats what makes a market

[fardels bear] 10/9/2018 11:10

Something going on..

[smokieuk] 10/9/2018 11:10

And 2 sells, one of 100k and 1 of 50k

[general george] 10/9/2018 11:04

Maybe that was chesnuts £76k buy?

Some big buys going through, 25k, 50k, 100k.

[general george] 10/9/2018 09:21

I will go for ham and roasted 'chesnut'mushrooms.

[fardels bear] 09/9/2018 22:10

There's always Dr Oetker...

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 21:43

What really annoys me is that Dominoes have pulled their Full House pizza!
The celebrations when the deal is concluded may have to be toned down.

[dunderheed] 09/9/2018 20:18

Guys I've got to admit it's a difficult one with chesty.
But, I did get three xtra large pizzas from pj's today and they've got another pizza (chicken) choice variation but lost all the recent bar b q range so I'm a bit gutted about that as well.
I hope that helps.
See yahs all tomorrow!!

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 19:54

Not necessarily re the two waivers.

"Mr. Bolton said the first wind-down period has ended, with the U.S. only granting two “very limited” sanctions waivers in a bid to show that the administration is pushing tough enforcement. A spokesman for Mr. Bolton declined to say who had received those waivers as the information hasn't been released."

[froop] 09/9/2018 19:49

I mean it's pretty clear they're talking about Iranian oil exported from Iran. But obviously with the numpty in the white house nothing can be ruled out.

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2018 19:40

This is the direct link:



It seems that you get one chance to read it then you have to subscribe to the WSJ to read it again!