Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[general george] 22/8/2018 14:41

Yes DH,



2016 UK production was approx 15 billion therms
2017 similar - source OGA

BKR @ say 37k boepd (IOC+BP+Others share) = 37000 x 58 x 365 = 783,290,000 therms

Therefore 5.2%

The reporter is a mug, or he only counted BP share and then rounded it down.

Cheers GG

[dunderheed] 22/8/2018 14:28

Ah gg foresaw my request lol!
Was that also quoted on sqz acq circular gg?

[dunderheed] 22/8/2018 14:26

Yes I've got to admit I was concerned about that 2% suggestion but also wasn't sure on the veracity of author.
Is anyone able to establish clearly the percentage of UK supplied by rhum plus r3?
I'd always assumed it to be around 5% + r3 but come to think if it cant remember where I read that lol!!
I'm sure I saw it in the serica acq blurb but am on train and always have difficulty working my fandangled phone at the best of times lol!!

[general george] 22/8/2018 14:21

'On 21 November 2017, Serica announced its agreement (the “BKR Transaction”) to purchase interests in the Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields in the UK North Sea from BP. These fields together produce up to 5% of the UK’s indigenous gas production'

[general george] 22/8/2018 14:17

What link?

It's 5%
or 10% if Rhum3 drilled

Stated in various places

[fardels bear] 22/8/2018 14:13

GG: according to the link that was posted yesterday regarding the sanctions, Rhum was reported as being 2% of UK gas supply. So, let's not get carried away with our sense of self-importance to the counutry.

[general george] 22/8/2018 14:00

Hi FB

I posted before, but here again for reference.
Seems to me that the same scheme will be workable, if required.

[general george] 22/8/2018 13:54

I don't think Rhum will be shutdown at all.

BKR is 5-10% of the UK gas supply!

Hence government involvement.

[fardels bear] 22/8/2018 13:34

The IOC were most keen that that should not happen last time... If you read the hullabaloo that went on when they thought HMG was trying to take their revenue away you'll see what I mean. I can't remember where it was posted but there were links to it on here.

[farmscan] 22/8/2018 13:18

No leverage against IOC, in that if its shut down they get nothing, is what I was getting at.

[fardels bear] 22/8/2018 13:17

That's leverage against BP. though. Surely it's leverage against IOC that is needed.

If Corbyn were PM they'd just nationalise it. Trouble is that they'd nationalise the whole lot...

OTOH, if that Abbott woman did the math we might get far more than the field is worth. ;)

[farmscan] 22/8/2018 13:09

With regard to "someone" taking over IOCs 50% of Rhum, I know it has been discussed that they are probably not willing to sell, but I have been thinking there must now be a bit of leverage. With BP. taking over BHPs Permian basin assets, they are not wanting to be left with Rhum, so if the BKR deal doesn't go through then I suppose they would just close it down. Or is it not that simple.

[farmscan] 22/8/2018 13:02

Yes hopefully at improved levels and with less problems.

[general george] 22/8/2018 12:25

Farmscan

Sorry - it was a typo

It was meant to be 35p, it reached that April/May 2017
I did buy some around then at over 32p.

The gas price was lower by 50% then.

It is a shame Erskine has been down, or SQZ would be cash rich as it stands.
But never mind once Erskine is back in production, the cash will be rolling in once more.

[captainfatcat] 22/8/2018 12:24

Wonder what's up with all the midday UT trades at 80p?

[captainfatcat] 22/8/2018 12:21

Worth mentioning that the share price prior to the BKR deal was also reflecting a significantly different oil price environment 2016/2017 had seen Brent ranging from $55 to sub $40 and it wasn't until the middle of 2017 that the oil price started trending north once again and actually holding onto its gains.

[farmscan] 22/8/2018 11:57

General you are right, they did trade at c38p prior to BKR news, but that was around 2012 so quite a bit before.

[captainfatcat] 22/8/2018 10:48

There was a little string of AT trades into the close yesterday only small volume but it dropped the bid.

[fardels bear] 22/8/2018 10:31

Bid continues to drop... Bid dropping on very low volume I have learned to ignore as there being a buyer in the market and the lengths some MMs and DMA traders will go to to scare a few shares onto the market no longer surprises me.

[general george] 22/8/2018 10:28

The Hardy's av price is very low.

Like I say there is downside protection.
prob get hammered initially, but still worth 40p imho.

They did trade at 38p prior to BKR news.

[fardels bear] 22/8/2018 10:25

To be fair though, the Hardys and the IIs are a bit stuck. If any of them tried to sell there'd be mayhem..

I've diversified into PMG, IOG and I3E which are the best potential UKCS oilers I can find but SQZ still biggest holding.

I was even thinking the other day about selling the lot and buying more Fundsmith Equity and Lindsell Train Global, both of which I hold a lot of and have returned me far more than AIM stocks ever have... but sleepless nights and the cut and thrust (LOL) on these forums seem to be addictive.

[general george] 22/8/2018 10:18

Yes,

My average price is around 30p, so have some downside protection.
Even without BKR + BK, I think it is worth 40p min.

I can't see Rhum being shutdown to be honest. So I think SQZ either get a waiver, or there will be an escrow account and a waiver.

At current prices, I'd have bought if I didn't already have a large position(for me).

None of the big shareholders have sold, which bodes well, and the board are very confident. Of course there is risk, but I'd say much more likely it will complete.

All IMHO.

[fardels bear] 22/8/2018 10:12

Still a bit binary at present though, don't you think?

[general george] 22/8/2018 10:08

Oh right, apologies. They hadn't come up yet.
With no one really selling or buying, the price can move a fair bit I guess.

I'm positioned and waiting along with 99% of other holders.

On completion will be a huge re-rate.