Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sawney] 26/8/2018 21:23

It really has a simple solution.

IOC's share of revenue from Rhum stays in the UK in escrow. I guess that will be the main condition of the waiver.

...except that the EU may insist on payments being made.... seeing as they are so keen to keep the Nuclear deal going....although I'm sure something will be fudged to get round it...

[captainfatcat] 26/8/2018 20:45

Good things come to those who wait

Tick Tock

[pineapple1] 26/8/2018 20:14

Yes putting the peices together. Mitch feeling confindent (but restricted from saying why) ,Total agreeing to sell (would they waste their time if they felt the deal would fall through).
What do we get. Everything or nothing. But in this case i'd like all the peices of the jigsaw to see the picture. That news from Bounty certainly seems like it has the potential to be the clincher. Time will tell.
imho

[general george] 26/8/2018 20:04

Yes BH, thats the WSJ Article I saw.

Heres hoping!

[pineapple1] 26/8/2018 19:58

Good find Bounty........

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 19:49

Yes, and that would require the start of another temporary management order to coincide with or precede the start of a new OFAC license. It's quite possible that that could be the hold up at the moment. At least there is legislation already in place for that this time round however.

[oilretire] 26/8/2018 19:45

It really has a simple solution.

IOC's share of revenue from Rhum stays in the UK in escrow. I guess that will be the main condition of the waiver.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 19:32

Cheers Saul!

...sorry I meant DH :-!

[dunderheed] 26/8/2018 19:30

Well found sir!

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 19:26

'Mr. Bolton said the first wind-down period has ended, with the U.S. only granting two “very limited” sanctions waivers in a bid to show that the administration is pushing tough enforcement. A spokesman for Mr. Bolton declined to say who had received those waivers as the information hasn't been released.'

So one of them could be ours and we may be about to hear soon after the bank holiday?! (I would say it could be accurately described as "very limited").

...and he can't be including the gas corridor exemption in those two as info on that had already been released.

[pineapple1] 26/8/2018 18:03

It is after all UK gas and oil and operated by a UK company. I don't really consider the Iranians the owners in the true sense of the word. Iranian oil in Iranian waters is a different matter entirely.
Rhum is small in the grand scheme of things. Lets hope the OFAC consider it not material to their objectives and grant the waiver.
Its taking a bit longer than i thought which makes me a little nervous. But if it is not issued and the share tanks i,m going to buy a lot more at better prices as i,m almost certain some sort of work around will be instigated and the equity recover.
Higher prices are coming. Its just a question of wether we get lower ones first or not. I'd prefer the excieting route of higher prices given the choice rather than the gut wrenching cliff dive..
imho

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 17:50

I wonder if they are considering proceeding even if the waiver isn't forthcoming? It would be absurd if the US failed to assist in the unlikely event of an emergency with the wellhead given that it's gas in UK territorial waters. In fact it seems that Serica would be in breech of the recent EU blocking dictat if production was to be switched off due to the unilateral US sanctions.

[general george] 26/8/2018 17:20

Currently, I dont think a waiver would be forthcoming for direct oil purchases from Iran.

I did see an artcle saying one of the Japanese oil buyers, could find neither vessels nor insurance, so would stop buying crude from iran.

Roll on Tuesday.....

Mr Flegg has told me RNS as soon as meaningful development (via email)
Have to wait and see.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 16:13

Japan is seeking a waiver...



Minami said stopping all Iranian oil exports could result in the loss of around 2.5 million b/d of global oil supply, which cannot be absorbed and would trigger a "substantial rise" in oil prices that would not benefit anyone.

"As [Japan] considers to continue importing the crude oil, we intend to tell the US this stance, and we aim to secure their understanding," he said.


and I recall Iraq is also seeking waivers.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 16:10

Hi GG, can't find anything either - hopefully Serica has secured the second waiver and we just haven't heard yet!

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 16:07

Re Rhum this is pretty much all we have to go on right now (from the link I recently posted)...

Serica Energy CEO Mitch Flegg sounded optimistic after the recent talks on Rhum in Washington. Flegg said the UK was showing "huge political will" to secure a waiver. He did not rule out Serica buying BP's stake and keeping Rhum operating without the waiver, but added it could cause problems, not least if the company needs financing from US banks.

"We are confident that we are going to get a resolution," Flegg told S&P Global Platts. "The British government has made it clear that this is something of national importance."

[general george] 26/8/2018 16:05

Hi BH,

I had a look and couldnt find anything.

Fingers crossed!

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 15:48

I also read that about the two waivers GG. I'll see if I can track down the second.

[general george] 26/8/2018 15:30

I read the US have so far issued 2 waivers.

One, we know is for the shah deniz pipeline.
Anyone know the other?

I also read the sanctions have been more effective than the US imagined,

[smokieuk] 26/8/2018 09:21

Mitch doesn't sound American in this old video either...



I'd agree that Mitch does sound an American name but I know two Mitchells who are British.

[dunderheed] 26/8/2018 08:55

Reserved for Saul Goodman.

[dunderheed] 26/8/2018 08:55

BH once you get the good roundies sorted out then you can start going for the more obscure others...

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2018 07:32

Lol Dh

Yes Steel probably the UK, but not come across any Mitch's around my region.
I believe the name is more common in North America and Australia.

[steelwatch] 25/8/2018 22:01

bh - don't know where Mitch was born, but sounds like somewhere close to home: