Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 08/2/2024 12:03

I also agree with that spawny - it would seem unlikely.

[spawny100] 08/2/2024 11:56

I very much doubt management would be buying in if they thought there was going to be a Divi cut.

[nigelpm] 08/2/2024 11:55

I do get the point that as a mgmt team you want to avoid a drop in share price through the decision to take a knife to the dividend but equally I'd prefer they concentrate on doing the right thing for long term value. At current prices I'd certainly trade a dividend for a sustained buyback programme and value add acquisitions such as ENQ or DELT that could accelerate growth.

As ever there's a balance to be had.

[nigelpm] 08/2/2024 11:48

I think the question of the dividend is likely to be more based on whether it's preferable to hold the cash for an acquisition or whether pressure to instigate a buyback programme is high - Mitch tended to be averse to them - so that may well change.

[stemis] 08/2/2024 11:43

Oilinvestor,

Surely if they cut the dividend the shares will fall. Surely the directors know this, so why would they buy shares at this point?

The finals should be out in mid April so we should find out then. At this point therefore I'm not minded to buy more until I have clarity or more confidence over the dividend.

[oilinvestoral] 08/2/2024 11:40

Yes , saying if you need help with any of the technical terms in a the presentation, give me a shout and make use of my decades experience in oil & gas is the height of antagonism!!!Jeezus some people are angry inside! You're a 1 angry little fellar aren't you ? Yikes!!! PS: my offer has been rescinded to you ! Too late!

[nigelpm] 08/2/2024 11:37

Sian dipping her toes in also - I suspect the discussion in mgmt meetings has been "what on earth is the market doing?" - I tend to agree.

[oilinvestoral] 08/2/2024 11:34

Stemis I think the dividend cut is extremely likely now! You have to read between the lines and may have to do a basic FCF analysis based on over a quarter of a billion dollars capex programme!Also, the silence on the divi in a 50 slide presentation speaks volume!

[vaston] 08/2/2024 10:33

SYME IS NOW READY TO FLY

[monet] 08/2/2024 10:27

Every little helps. BBC News.

Source oil and gas locally, urges Equinor energy boss





Labour is to announce that it will no longer spend £28bn a year on environmental projects if it wins the upcoming general election.

[nigelpm] 08/2/2024 09:39

Yes - or indeed a slide or two showing the impact of the tax and dividend payments on net cash as that has confused many.

Very much an operational update.

I've no doubt the analysts will focus on the returns/cash flow side of things.

[stemis] 08/2/2024 09:20

Disappointing not to see one single mention of the dividend in the presentation...

[farmscan] 08/2/2024 08:22

Antagonistic.

[oilinvestoral] 08/2/2024 07:50

Presentation to sell side analysts:https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/Analyst-presentation-Feb%2024.pdfSome of it might be a little too technical for some who aren't au fait with O&G terms.Any questions, let me know (wink emoji)

[nigelpm] 07/2/2024 18:59

Nearly £150k worth for Mitch also. Directors telling the market it's too cheap.

[nigelpm] 07/2/2024 18:58

I think we are agreeing tiger. But to be clear that doesn't necessarily mean a deal isn't imminent as an approach for sqz could could come at any time.

[oilinvestoral] 07/2/2024 18:19

Agreed TBTT! They are clearly NOT in a closed period anyone with any financial acumen or nous could see that! I actually don't think they currently have the fire power to do it (without going deep debt)! The net cash position has dwindled significantly and there is the small matter of hundreds of millions of CAPEX & Dividends to be paid for... Also, I can't see them progressing any deals while they are searching for a CEO!

[oilinvestoral] 07/2/2024 18:14

LMFAO! Looks like Fleggy has been shamed into buying some SQZ shares! LOLIf we'd know that sacking him would've caused him to utilise a small amount of his 1 million annual remuneration & dip his hands into his pockets and by some SQZ shares , we would've campaigned for that years ago ! LOLShame it took a sacking and a 50% drop in share price over 15 months to do it !

[tigerbythetail] 07/2/2024 14:44

Nigelpm - not really. Yes, they could be taking a first preliminary look at something, but they can't be in meaningful negotiations over a meaningful deal. That would be a rule breach.

[nigelpm] 07/2/2024 14:23

The downside of the director purchases is that they are clearly not in a closed period - so no acquisition or other deal imminent.

Not necessarily true. They could be evaluating, looking at data rooms etc.. doesn't preclude directors buying equity.

[oilinvestoral] 07/2/2024 11:04

Why Norway - I am no expert but thought their tax regime was at least as onerous as the UKs. Further afield yes - a 50/50 merger with Seplat or similar maybe.... but that would not be risk free!-----------The DudieNot even close! The tax rebate is higher in the UK but the overall tax is significantly better/ lower in Norway since the UK EPL was introduced. They are a lot more welcoming to oil and gas investments. Please see the SQZ presentation from last year and also the Kist acquisition presentation of Mime. With regards to seplat or similar ... HOLLY YIKES!!!! No thank you !

[stemis] 07/2/2024 10:53

Suspect SQZ is more likely to pick up non core assets from majors or farm into to capital strapped projects, like JOG.

[thedudie] 07/2/2024 10:52

At this stage I think farm-ins to developments are a better use of money. They usually have lower risk with very limited initial outlay and no real commitment until FID. FID for either target in the Deltec portfolio will likely be at least 2 years away. Lots can change in 2 years.

Why Norway - I am no expert but thought their tax regime was at least as onerous as the UKs. In fact the investment allowance rebate of the UK seems better?

Further afield yes - a 50/50 merger with Seplat or similar maybe.... but that would not be risk free!