Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[saltraider] 06/2/2024 08:16

@oiLinvestorAl ... It's not the content of your posts that gives you away, it's the tone that proves you a dishonest deramper.

Bearish argument, coolly delivered is only to be welcomed. It helps maintain a balanced perspective.

You really need to up your game!

[stemis] 05/2/2024 22:28

Update was slightly disappointing in the short term (production at lower end of guidance) but has little impact, as far as I'm concerned, on the medium term value of the company (production has now picked up after largely planned shutdowns). Will have to wait for more information to understand the cash movement. Don't really have a view on Flegg leaving.

Would be disappointed if they cut the dividend (of which I've already received 23p a share since my purchase in March last year) but as long as they don't I'm content to hold as the valuation is hardly challenging. Would even consider topping up if they confirmed the dividend going forward...

[nigelpm] 05/2/2024 21:43

Normally I don't tend to agree with Malcy but think he's summarised well there. He has a tendency to be overly bullish and shows signs of that here but still I felt there was nothing in the update to concern.

[888icb] 05/2/2024 21:29

Malcy’s comment:
“ With two days of the Capital Markets event on the way starting tomorrow and not including the news that they have to find a new CEO all is going well operationally for Serica. Production news is good, last year’s 40.1 kboe/d exited at 45.7 kboe/d and guidance for this year is 41-48 kboe/d a bit wide but takes possible shut-downs into account.

With Tailwind pretty much bedded in, the next piece of recent M&A, farming-in to the substantial Greater Buchan Area will get underway this year with FID expected late this year. The company has tagged plenty of activity this year operationally, from a campaign at Triton to intervention and drilling at Bruce and Keith.

Serica has plenty to be getting on with and has a very strong balance sheet with which to do it. I’m very confident that assuming the board calls right on the new CEO then the company has a powerful period coming up.”

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 19:46

There's always the filter button framscan. Feel free to use it at any time.I've personally got no issues with you but if you don't like my posts , you are not obligated to read them.That also goes for anyone else who only wants to hear positives about the company and merrily clap away ... Cheers

[farmscan] 05/2/2024 19:44

"He has been antagonistic, rude & dismissive"

Hmmmm... Reminds me of someone else.

[creditcrunchies] 05/2/2024 19:22

You can see why the CEO has been sacked it's got a bit messy after that balls during the rejected 450p bid. I found that RNS a challenging read with so many cuts in production. Saying that it does look good value but it sure needs somebody to steady the ship

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 18:11

My apologies binghall if you were offended ! Pointing out your lack of posting history was not meant to offend.Also if you look at my posting history, you'll see I only post a lot during news / update periods and can go for weeks without posting anything. I must admit, I posted more yesterday and today than I have posted on any day over the 2-3 years. Mainly to correct the argumentative one! PS: for those who aren't aware: the PM & I have a long history! He has been antagonistic, rude & dismissive with me for years (to the extent that I had to block him).Anyway I'll most likely go back to hibernation mode once the news excitement dies off!

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 18:10

I suspect the tone of the posts over coming days will morph into the following: 1. The drop was good as it allows us to buy more of these magic beans (let's hope for more drops). 2. How the market has completely got this wrong and retired PMs are correct! Without any self reflection or assessment as to why we are where we are.3. How wonderful the current half will be operationally and financially for SQZ! Does anyone know where the Tailwind tax losses went ? The whole thesis behind the wonderful acquisition was that we would be able to reduce our tax bills!

[steelwatch] 05/2/2024 17:35

Extracts:

Shell has added its weight to a collaborative project which is powering subsea equipment through a combination of wave energy and underwater energy storage off Scotland's Orkney isles....

...The oil giant will join project leads Mocean Energy and Verlume, alongside industry players Baker Hughes, Serica Energy, Harbour Energy, Transmark Subsea, PTTEP, Total Energies and the Net Zero Technology Centre...

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 17:12

Agreed that this is a good price to average down.

Interesting post today's update that Jefferies maintained their target price for SQZ having set a 280p TP on 5 Jan 2024

Jefferies cuts Serica Energy price target to 280 (330) pence - 'buy' - 5 Jan 2024

[binghall] 05/2/2024 17:07

Have a read of your post again OilInvestorAl, it didn't come over as a comment made in jest, making jibes about the number of posts I have made. I am not that serious just get frustrated with a world full of unnecessary confrontation. Few of us are enjoying this but I want to read balanced views on Serica, whilst I sit quietly in the background not making posts, waiting for the buckets of cash this company is going to give us all over the next decade. Good luck to you.

[loafingchard] 05/2/2024 17:07

Good luck Sturmey, been thinking similar thoughts regarding averaging up.

[sturmey] 05/2/2024 17:00

My broker has just passed me today's update notes from Jefferies (target price 280p) and Peel Hunt (target price 351p). As a retired analyst, head of research etc etc, I don't put much value on stockbroker research having written many similar notes myself! But as a very longstanding holder of SQZ (over 10 years) and with a large holding, I opted to add to my holding today.

[binghall] 05/2/2024 16:34

Post 101 (apparently) Thank you OilInvestorAl, your response proves my point. The amount you post does not necessarily reflect your worth. Appreciate the patronising tone though.

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 16:10

Am I correct in assuming that Serica's Gas production is likely even now far more profitable than Tailwind production?? (On an equal tax basis)

Would appreciate feedback on my rough calculations. Cheers

1 barrel of oil = 60.5 Therms

Current UK Therm Price 70p

Barrel of oil equivalent price -> 70p per Therm * 60.5 * 1.255 (GBPUSD) = US$53.14 per Boe/d of gas [Bottom 1/5th range for the past year)

Average 2024 forecast for UK Gas is 124p per Therm or US$94.14 per Boe/d of Gas

Per Statista on average UK Gas forward curve for 2024 has a price of 124p

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 16:00

IMHO for HBR the Wintershall Dea deal is superlative / values HBR at 360p with excellent upside!!! HBR already has too much scale in the UK and needs to look outside the UK to grow and the WD deal does just the same.

Same with SQZ - has scale but needs to look outside the UK.

KIST, ENQ (given leverage as compared to SQZ) and Ithaca with its UK focus - perhaps make sense to combine. KIST imho the most oversold of the 3 given no value in share price for soon to be online Balder production!!! Management silence is though ominous on the part of KIST...

nigelpm5 Feb '24 - 15:35 - 5530 of 5531
0 0 1
A four way tie up - HBR, SQZ, ENQ and KIST makes a lot of sense.

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 15:45

SQZ looks like a good investment today -
SQZ and crude are both oversold,
Leadership overhaul - high calibre CFO bought in and soon a high calibre CEO to replace leader who is not a tier 1 operator,
Opec will backstop,
American oil will throttle down at sub $70 WTI,
SQZ EV/Barrel and EV/2P even for high tax UK are compelling - given negligible decommissioning costs,
Labour has stated that they will not kill the industry - have promised to hold corporate rates at current levels,
I am 90% confident the tax backdating bluster etc is just to motivate their green base - when in the drivers seat the economy and tax receipts will matter more.
THIRTEEN PERCENT DIVIDEND YIELD - LETS SEE IF I AM RIGHT ON THE SAME BEING MAINTAINED OR EVEN BUMPED UP!!!

SP: 176.6p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 176.6p on 5 Feb 24: 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23: -34.83%
Brent: $76.75
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £71.00
Shares Outstanding: 391,488,867
GBPUSD: 1.255
MarketCap GBP: £691,369,339
MarketCap USD: $867,668,521
Cash GBP [Including GBP28mn of soon to be reimbursed security deposit] (31 Dec 23): £319,100,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23): $400,470,500
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23): £210,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23):: $263,550,000
Net Cash (USD) (31 Dec 23): $136,920,500
Net Cash(GBP) % of SP/Market Cap: 15.78%
Net Cash(GBP) component of SQZ Share Price: 27.87p
Enterprise Value (In USD): $730,748,021
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]: 44,500
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to 2 Feb 2024]: 43,184
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]: 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]: $16,421
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to 2 Feb 2024]: $16,922
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production: $18,214
Decommissioning Provision (Per HY 23 Results): $124,998,000
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision: $19,230
(9p+14p) 2023 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield: 13.02%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 2022: 130,400,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves: $5.60

[nigelpm] 05/2/2024 15:35

A four way tie up - HBR, SQZ, ENQ and KIST makes a lot of sense.

[waterloo01] 05/2/2024 15:31

Someone needs to be fired. Oh just a moment.....

[xxnjr] 05/2/2024 14:33

Indeed. Glad I went swimming. Good to declutter ones mind. Have utilised the filter button as I'm not partial to excessive use of capital letters. Thanks for the comments on cash :)

[farmscan] 05/2/2024 14:27

I don't actually recall suggesting that he was leaving due to ill health, and as for being quiet, I dislike the general tone of many of the posts on this thread and so choose not to participate.

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 13:43

Hear hear binghall! I've ticked up your post solely because it's rarer than hens teeth! 100 posts in 24 years works out at 4 posts / year. We are truly grateful & honoured to be bestowed with this rare occurrence on this magical day !

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 13:40

Farmscan You've been quiet today . Do you still recon that our glorious leader willingly submitted his notice due to ill health or wanting to spend more time with his family? Or do you think he was pushed out kicking and screaming ? Answer on post card plead ! (Wink emoji)