Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 21/2/2024 08:10

Have started watching this. I get that the CEO is leaving but why the huge drift down in mkt cap? Started before he left

[duckdown] 20/2/2024 15:52

Begs the question why anybody would vote for either Labour or the Conservatives.

Completely useless the lot of them.

[nakedmolerat] 20/2/2024 07:27

i agree Joe, they are pandering to the green vote over working class peoples jobs 78% tax from 75%, no new licenses. yet, china and all just do what they want.

[joestalin] 20/2/2024 05:13

Labour will kill our O&G industry. They will allow the EU to finish the job and kill all our manufacturing industries.

[yasx] 19/2/2024 17:19

The WFT (and labour intending to extend it) has crushed many Co’s and will undoubtedly lead to further job losses.

[pineapple1] 19/2/2024 14:51

I often look at charts .Some do some don't bother . The H@s targeted £1.70 ish .A small gap on the chart down at £1.40 from some time ago. Surely not.
If it gets to £1.70ish i'll buy back in despite exposing myself to the hated WFT even more.
Got quite a few HBR (at least they are trying to diversify unlike SQZ ) so felt that enough in the semi uninvestable NS oil sector....lol
But a bargain is a bargain and i'll have to hold my nose.
imho

[oilinvestoral] 19/2/2024 14:16

Company apparently cut FCF forecast via house broker hence the drop to the low 180s. Hopefully support at 179-178 holds.

[oilinvestoral] 13/2/2024 11:51

" I'd forgotten to include the Tailwind debt."------------------Exactamundo! Mercuria pilliaged copious amounts of dividends and loaded up the company with debt to the gullets before selling it on! Hence why it's best to always always always look at EV rather than cash cost!

[farmscan] 13/2/2024 10:24

No don't bother, I'd forgotten to include the Tailwind debt.

[farmscan] 13/2/2024 10:22

Out of interest, could you show your workings on how you come up with the figure of $21.5/bbl? TIA

[oilinvestoral] 13/2/2024 09:57

With regards to my post # 5656 . While we on the subject of acquisition acumen by management teams. JSE has just been suspended as they are one of the final bidders for Woodside's assets. We don't know the final details but based on press speculation it looks like being priced at a $6.7 / bbl 2P reserves valuation Vs the master stroke of tailwind form PE ($21.5 / bbl)! Also comes with double Tailwinds 2022 production.

[oilinvestoral] 10/2/2024 16:33

MarioPeter isn't suggesting anything! Has hit the nail square on the head! His post 4283 from over a year ago demonstrates to anyone with a basic reading & comprehension level that Mercuria invested the square root of zilch into Tailwind from their own money, they loaded it with debt and harvested egregious amounts of dividends from any cash flow that was generated! The 60 odd million they received from Serica in cash was multiples of any cash they personally invested ! The accounts confirm this! As for the shares they received for free at at slightly below 280p, I certainly wouldn't refer to those as "bought a chunk"! They are known in the industry as "a free kicker"! They are literally laughing all the way to the bank !!!

[steelwatch] 10/2/2024 13:00

Bruce infill well:

[nigelpm] 09/2/2024 20:41

Hopefully Labour will continue to U-turn up to the Election -

[nigelpm] 09/2/2024 20:06

Yes Stemis - that was one of Mitch's real drivers for the Tailwind deal - diversification away from gas and indeed since then the gas price has tanked and oil is barely moved.

The real mistake of Serica mgmt was not hedging the gas price significantly more than they did at some of the loopy prices - clearly they wouldn't have got away with hedging at the very elevated levels but 125-150/therm would have been sensible - as ever though Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[stemis] 09/2/2024 19:44

Oilinvestor

While I disagree with Mario in some aspects, on an EV per barrel basis nobody rational can deny that Tailwind is one of the most expensive acquisitions in North Sea history (objectively speaking).

But that's not what we were discussing. Mariopeter was trying to dress the KIST 'offer' for SQZ as a missed opportunity. The reality is that it would have been no better than the Tailwind acquisition (which he thinks was an awful deal, so ergo...).

KIST shareholders, of which I presume he is one, have seen the value of their shares crumble more than SQZ's since then.

The reason that KIST has relatively underperformed is because they had a more geared balance sheet when gas prices started to fall and didn’t have the cash protection. They were also heavily exposed to gas prices (sig more than SQZ).

Perhaps KIST should have been diversifying away from gas then...

[nigelpm] 09/2/2024 19:23

You seem to be suggesting mario that Mercuria are great at adding value for themselves - given they bought a chunk of SQZ effectively at £2.80 one might argue they have been pretty poor actually don't you think?

[mariopeter] 09/2/2024 19:01

Looks like you and I both know the private equity beast OilinvestorAl. Horrible greedy people and they bagged half a billion from no outlay and probably upset a large number of people along the way.

Good weekend to you and thanks for your note.

[oilinvestoral] 09/2/2024 17:59

Just read your 4283 post MarioPeterWell done on your foresight! You broke down (using facts figures & numbers) why no oil company should ever do a deal with private equity who mismanage and leverage to the gills! Best of all you analysed it when the pugnacious happy clapper was telling everyman and his dog that Tailwind was an amazing deal ! Credit where credit is due ! Well done ! Zero hindsight involved (clap)!Some people shouldn't do their own research! They should read research from people like your good self who clearly know what they are talking about! Have a nice weekend sir!

[mariopeter] 09/2/2024 17:37

Nothing retro about post 4283 on this board.

[nigelpm] 09/2/2024 16:12

Masters of hindsight and capable of telling future returns = your average ADVFN poster.