Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 05/2/2024 11:01

BH go back and review Stemis history on SQZ chat if he has not modified - Stemis conveys he worked in PR!!!

I really haven't. But you'll be able to post a link to that will you? I've been a full time investor for the last 10 years and previously a chartered accountant and then one time FD of a plc. Some on here will remember me from Motley Fool (which is actually where I first 'met' nigelpm).

Stemis has updated he is a paid PR lackey....

Probably libelous. But go on then, when did I do that? Alternatively why don't you stick to trying to ramp your way of the mess you got yourself into with the dog that is JSE?

So substantiate your accusations, you clown, (which you can't) or withdraw them...

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 10:54

"Wow 12.5% dividend - I am 95% sure dividend will be reiterated and likely uplifted!!!"------Ash I agree! If (big IF) the dividend is maintained then the shares are dirt cheap! However, a lot of investors are selling because they don't expect the dividend to be maintained. They expect it to be ruthlessly slashed! Time will tell!!!

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 10:52

AshkvMainly due to timings.The 90% rebate will happen after the capex has been fully spent. In the meantime, they will need to buy LLIs from the cash kitty / debt balance. The earmarked wells will require Xmas trees, OCTGs, production tubulars and production accessories. Tie backs, subsea pipelines and SPS equipment will all need to be purchased upfront! That money will have to be spent 6-12 months before any tax rebate at 90% is seen by SQZ!When rigs are contracted they also have to go through rig modifications & acceptance process which also needs to be paid for...

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 10:44

Wow 12.5% dividend - I am 95% sure dividend will be reiterated and likely uplifted!!!

47% upside to September 2023 highs for SQZ...

Lets see if another RNS to the same is released with analyst meetings on 7/8 February 2024

SP: 183.9p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 183.89p on 5 Feb 24: 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23: -32.14%
Brent: $76.75
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £71.00
Shares Outstanding: 391,488,867
GBPUSD: 1.260
MarketCap GBP: £719,908,878
MarketCap USD: $907,085,186
Cash GBP [Including GBP28mn of soon to be reimbursed security deposit] (31 Dec 23): £319,100,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23): $402,066,000
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23): £210,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23):: $264,600,000
Net Cash (USD) (31 Dec 23): $137,466,000
Net Cash(GBP) % of SP/Market Cap: 15.15%
Net Cash(GBP) component of SQZ Share Price: 27.87p
Enterprise Value (In USD): $769,619,186
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]: 44,500
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to 2 Feb 2024]: 43,184
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]: 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]: $17,295
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to 2 Feb 2024]: $17,822
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production: $19,182
Decommissioning Provision (Per HY 23 Results): $125,496,000
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision: $20,115
(9p+14p) 2023 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield: 12.51%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 2022: 130,400,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves: $5.90

[croasdalelfc] 05/2/2024 10:39

Indeed - £444m cash and cash equivalents now down to £291m but they paid £139m tax and £89m dividends in H2 . Tax was H2 weighted and dividends paid in July and Oct so also H2 weighted

[nigelpm] 05/2/2024 10:25

Tax payments have moved the net cash position the wrong way - expect generation this H1 to be significant.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 05/2/2024 10:22

And yet it continues to fall. Are you maybe missing something?

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 10:14

XNJR net cash is actually higher given a minor blip of a security deposit which will soon revert to bank account of SQZ!!!

Cash GBP [Including GBP28mn of soon to be reimbursed security deposit] (31 Dec 23): £319,100,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23): $402,066,000
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23): £210,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23):: $264,600,000
Net Cash (USD) (31 Dec 23): $137,466,000
Net Cash(GBP) % of SP/Market Cap: 14.88%
Net Cash(GBP) component of SQZ Share Price: 27.87p

[blueball] 05/2/2024 10:13

Looking to buy@150/160p.

[xxnjr] 05/2/2024 10:11

Can't say I follow things terribly closely here.

Interestingly todays 2024 production guidance "41,000 to 48,000 boe/d (net to Serica)" is exactly what they suggested in the original Tailwind Acquisition Announcement.



"Combined proforma net production forecast of 40,000 to 47,000 boe/d in 2023, 41,000 to 48,000 boe/d in 2024 and 42,000 to 49,000 boe/d in 2025"

2023 outcome just squeezed into lower end of range.

Yr on Yr Rhum was off -21% (12,490 vs 15,700)

Tailwind delivered about 17,640 in 2024. Plus ISTR a small contribution arising from increased equity on one of SQZ's existing minor assets?

I guess it will partly depend of 2024/5 development drilling outcomes? What do we think of the cash position?

"Year-end cash and cash equivalents stood at £291 million and borrowings at £210 million."

Going out for a swim :)

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 10:09

BH go back and review Stemis history on SQZ chat if he has not modified - Stemis conveys he worked in PR!!!

I haven't validated the same - from another forum ->

"Net debt acquired from TW deal has been reduced by an unbelievable £5m from time of acquisition, typical MO for PE, max out debt and suck the cash out. SQZ prior to TW deal was debt free and as BB stated had at 30th June 22 they £420m in cash."

bountyhunter5 Feb '24 - 09:38 - 5491 of 5498
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>> Stemis has updated he is a paid PR lackey

I missed that ash, where was that?

Also I forget the exact amount of cash per share held by Sqz at the time of the tailwind acquisition but it must have been around the level of the current share price or higher?

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 10:06

SQZ is now dirt cheap given muppet empire building lifestyle CEO has been booted out / one of the key negatives of the stock...

The interim CEO has top notch experience/pedigree and is stepping in to right the rocky boat... He has already effectively taken over the CEO chair!!!

Hopefully it is onwards and upwards from this low point / series of management missteps...

I had a gut to sell in September 2023 around 260p - should have acted upon the same :(

Dividend Yield at 187p is 12.28% and EV/2p is $6 (SQZ has negligible decommissioning costs).

HBR for its recent deal was valued at 360p which equates to an EV/2P around $19-$20 including decommissioning obligations!!!

SP: 187.3p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 187.25p on 5 Feb 24: 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23: -30.90%
Brent: $76.75
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £71.00
Shares Outstanding: 391,488,867
GBPUSD: 1.260
MarketCap GBP: £733,062,903
MarketCap USD: $923,659,258
Cash GBP [Including GBP28mn of soon to be reimbursed security deposit] (31 Dec 23): £319,100,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23): $402,066,000
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23): £210,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23):: $264,600,000
Net Cash (USD) (31 Dec 23): $137,466,000
Net Cash(GBP) % of SP/Market Cap: 14.88%
Net Cash(GBP) component of SQZ Share Price: 27.87p
Enterprise Value (In USD): $786,193,258
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]: 44,500
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to 2 Feb 2024]: 43,184
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]: 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]: $17,667
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to 2 Feb 2024]: $18,206
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production: $19,596
Decommissioning Provision (Per HY 23 Results): $125,496,000
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision: $20,487
(9p+14p) 2023 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield: 12.28%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 2022: 130,400,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves: $6.03

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 09:56

Exactly Bountyhunter! 100% agree! BTW you are also owed an apology as you were also questioned and critiqued by the PM (Pugnacious Moaner)! I wouldn't hold my breath though!

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 09:54

"got that one wrong."---------No 5h1t Sherlock!!!!We all get some wrong! Nothing wrong with that! What is wrong is to pugnaciously argue the toss all Sunday afternoon with very little knowledge, experience or insight! What is wrong is to truculently and aggressively call those who were actually right "Pompous, arrogant and rude". When they were simply making a point! Hopefully some of us have learned a lesson from this sorry tale.

[bountyhunter] 05/2/2024 09:54

Yes if it was factored in it wouldn't have dropped back as it has done immediately after the announcement.

[oilinvestoral] 05/2/2024 09:52

Yas: "Re the update - it is undoubtedly disappointing - but, most of that is surely factored in at these levels, unless the situation is set to deteriorate further."-----YasxWouldn't be so sure unfortunately! The healthy cash balance has been fully incinerated in H2 2023! The debt raised recently is probably to fund CAPEX investments rather than acquisitions. Company will probably become significantly more net debt owing to the high investment plans. Potential for the divi to be slashed in April! I was tempted to sell this morning. I still might but will review the situation in more detail!PS: I didn't understand the George Galloway reference!

[monet] 05/2/2024 09:48

The yield is over 12% now, That's if Div stays the same.

[bountyhunter] 05/2/2024 09:38

>> Stemis has updated he is a paid PR lackey

I missed that ash, where was that?

Also I forget the exact amount of cash per share held by Sqz at the time of the tailwind acquisition but it must have been around the level of the current share price or higher?

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 09:26

YasX agreed share price was reflecting poor production performance... sophisticated operators have superior insight/info on production...

Hopefully the juicy dividend / which should be maintained backstops the share price...

[ashkv] 05/2/2024 09:24

As is the past pattern Stemis and his buddy stepping in to defend the departing CEO...

Stemis has updated he is a paid PR lackey....

Perhaps the other Buddy given his investment aligned social media following has undertaken some manner of promotional agreements/aka Malcy for SQZ...

Dire performance... And production hasn't doubled as the pugnacious one conveyed... it was circa 26k boe/d plus prior to the Tailwind debacle!!!!

And to think the Tailwind acquisition culminated post Windfall Tax 2!!!

[nigelpm] 05/2/2024 08:57

Good points yasX - onwards and upwards from here.

[yasx] 05/2/2024 08:54

Re the update - it is undoubtedly disappointing - but, most of that is surely factored in at these levels, unless the situation is set to deteriorate further.

I agree that it was right to let him go. This needs to happen more often.