Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 09/8/2019 10:03

Hi Loganair,

Whilst in the past few years that has been true here, I'm becoming more cautiously optimistic they may smash it out of the park this year.

The reason for this quiet hope is that the scrubber seems to now be up and running - whilst q2 production seems to have not really benefitted from the unit they did do a lot of lateral mine work seemingly - but then the ore sorter is now also on site. I have no idea as to the timeframe it will take to commission but since Serabi are a plant constrained operation, if that is running for even a couple of months it could really contribute a lot of ounces. It is rather blue sky thinking though - but I'm not at this point thinking its unrealistic.

[loganair] 09/8/2019 09:57

When it comes to forecast gold production SRB have always over estimated is why I think it will come in at the bottom end of the forecast 40,000oz to 44,000oz.

[ppvn] 09/8/2019 09:53

I rather like the volatility. I can't help but feel there is a large move up in the pipeline in the next few months.

Financials for Q2 I'm personally not expecting too much from. Gold didn't actually move significantly above $1,300 until June so the key metric I'll be looking at will be the AISC and if they've been able to keep that under control and perhaps improve slightly on Q1. By my sums, their debt outstanding with Sprott is now in the region of $3.7mm, so numbers should be solid rather than stellar. Q3 of course should be much, much better with the POG having been consistently above $1,400 and indeed beyond in recent days.

Exploration and the ramp to 100k oz is the real key here though. If Cindarella or the other anomalies prove to be other gold deposits it could feasibly cause the share price to have some rather volatile days - in a very good way!

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/8/2019 09:49

Nope it's odd!!! Free float small and those with are staying out. This will go bang at some point.

[tightfist] 09/8/2019 09:45

Hi,There is a lot more volume these days, which is presumably assisted by the Anker and Garraway disposals and subsequent trading. But it's still tightly held by very sticky ii's which for me is part of its appeal - volatility, good or bad?Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 09/8/2019 09:34

When sellers aren't active (and I don't know if they are or aren't today!) I've always had to call my broker to see how many I can buy and where.

It does seem to wake them up a bit though bizarrely. I bought a 20k shape a few months back and it bumped the price about 12% from memory. That was however back when daily liquidity would sometimes be nothing.

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/8/2019 08:16

Needs liquidity - can't buy 4,000

[74tom] 08/8/2019 20:19

Nothing to do with charting IMO, it’s simply someone selling large chunks at 59p - 315k went through as a late sell from yesterday morning which explains why we held at 61p ask for so long.

From today’s price action it’s clear there is another large sell in that area, Garraway had 2.8m to clear, and can’t be far off finishing now. They created a disorderly market by dumping 1m shares last Thursday, so have clearly been instructed to divide the remainder into smaller chunks.

With gold back above $1500 after its minor pull back, I think we’ll see renewed momentum here tomorrow.

[borisjohnsonshair] 08/8/2019 16:01

Mumbo jumbo for gold miners

[tightfist] 08/8/2019 15:21

I just noted the likelihood of a short-term Inverted H&S so a pull-back to ~57p level is to be expected, especially after the recent meteoric rise coupled with the delay of the PEA. IMO No Problem!

[borisjohnsonshair] 08/8/2019 14:48

Odd that this isn't considered good value. Often it takes a long time for the markets to spot these things.

[loganair] 08/8/2019 12:52

I thought an interesting read.

MoneyWeek - Fear of deflation may be driven by fear for the eurozone economy:


I do wonder what has spooked the market, though. And casting back to the last full-on deflationary scare in 2016, I’m wondering if they have more in common than perhaps I first thought.

I’ve viewed the fact that bond yields hit a major low following the Brexit vote as being little more than coincidence. I’m starting to think that’s wrong.

The focus in the last week or so has been on the US and the Federal Reserve and China and trade wars. But maybe what’s really spooked the markets is Europe.

Germany has released a string of woeful economic data in recent months. Yesterday, we learned that industrial production slid hard in June. It’s now looking quite likely that the economy will have shrunk during the second quarter. If Germany goes into recession, that’s got to be ugly for Europe.

Meanwhile, of course, Britain looks increasingly likely to end up leaving on a “no-deal”; basis. Regardless of how bad you think this will actually be (I tend towards the less melodramatic side), it’s not a prospect that’s going to make any investor outside of the UK and the eurozone feel comfortable.

In terms of events that could unleash another deflationary collapse on the world, then another proper crisis in the eurozone is perhaps the top candidate. The banking system is still ropey, and not being helped at all by negative interest rates.

Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank (ECB) has done a good job of holding the monetary system together with elastoplasts, but the political side of things is still not a lot further forward than where it was at the end of the last crisis.

Financial analyst and historian Russell Napier has argued that the collapse of the euro would be exactly the sort of unprecedented event that could be being signalled by today’s unprecedentedly low interest rates (you can see Russell in person at the MoneyWeek Wealth Summit on 22 November – get your ticket here now).

Now, to be very clear, I’m not arguing that we’re looking at an imminent collapse in the eurozone, because my gut feeling (for now) remains that when push comes to shove, the political appetite to maintain the whole thing is still too strong.

But a fresh crisis triggered by an economic slowdown and the ECB’s limited ability to boost actual growth, rather than prop up asset prices? That could certainly happen, and it could well be a scary moment for markets.

Equally, it might be fended off – maybe with another big “bazooka”; from the ECB – and investors might decide that they over-reacted, and bond yields could edge higher again, just as they did after they hit rock bottom in 2016.

I hate to say it, but we just can’t predict the future. The key, as I’ve said a few times this week, is not to panic. Stick to your plan, and if you don’t have a plan, then focus on making one, and don’t touch your investments until you’ve done so.

[tightfist] 08/8/2019 10:19

Presumably there is a sizeable Sell yet to be posted.......Interesting projection from Latitude - is there a storyline about how the US market will be set-up to perform for a Trump second term campaign - just a cynical thought.......

[loganair] 08/8/2019 08:31

Latitude Investment telling their clients that they see Gold good for the next year - until the next Fed rate rise which they say they expect to come in the middle of next year.

[tidy 2] 08/8/2019 08:16

NOTE at current gold prices, SRB will have revenue off 15.5million and ebita of 4.7million a quarter. Cap £37m.

[74tom] 07/8/2019 19:25

Some big late reported buys from yesterday afternoon; 250k @ 59p and 79k at 59.6p, there really can’t be much left of the seller now... when they’re gone I think we’ll see 80p+

[tidy 2] 07/8/2019 16:24

Gold 1505. Moving up

[1kiwi] 07/8/2019 15:54

If I can have 300K shares of these below 70p by the end of the week I will be over the moon!

[1kiwi] 07/8/2019 15:52

Can buy at 63p again

;)

[1kiwi] 07/8/2019 15:46

My broker wants 66p for just 12000 shares and that is over the phone, I'm consolidating more into here

[1kiwi] 07/8/2019 15:46

Here they come, Chunky delayed Buys

[littlepuppi7] 07/8/2019 15:06

Would normally say crazy price action gold but for me this is just a rational start to a longer term re rate. Mass moneyvprintingbis coming.

[loganair] 07/8/2019 14:58

Gold Up 154 BRLs

[1kiwi] 07/8/2019 14:56

gOLD $1509.70 SHORTS GETTING STOPPED OUT!