Senior Share Discussion Threads

[trendfloor] 28/7/2010 16:03

Hoping we get a bounce to the ceiling at about circa 150p?.

[trendfloor] 28/7/2010 16:02

Here we are smarm, cheers.

[trendfloor] 28/7/2010 16:01

Yep sure no probs.

[smarm] 28/7/2010 15:51

I'm sorry, can you please post a chart....I'm not seeing a trendfloor bottom on my chart.

S

[trendfloor] 28/7/2010 15:39

Yep it has been a bit dissapointing DP after last weeks event.

Good thing though its right on the trendfloor bottom.

Im sure certain TA sites will pick up on that tonight and post buys.

[dancing piranha] 28/7/2010 15:33

Very surprised at the sell off today again!

[trendfloor] 28/7/2010 10:37

Been a bit of a bummer today.

Anyway it looks about right on the floor of the bottom trendline so we should have some movement back up at sometime.

[shauney2] 27/7/2010 11:14

Boeing announce tomorrow

[trendfloor] 27/7/2010 09:49

Great stuff BW.

[broadwood] 27/7/2010 09:34

Boeing announce this week. Not sure which day.

[smarm] 27/7/2010 09:29

trendfloor - thanks.

S

[trendfloor] 27/7/2010 09:06

Date Broker name New Price price target

28-Jun-10 Brewin Dolphin Add 126.00p 152.00p

Brewin Dolphin with a 152p share price target first up.

[trendfloor] 26/7/2010 16:00

Brokers all with BUY ratings

On a forward P/E of just 12.5 to 2011 I can see why derd cheap historicaly....

Senior PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arden Partners
22-07-10 BUY 56.00 10.20 2.90 61.50 11.20 3.20

Brewin Dolphin Investment Banking
22-07-10 BUY 54.80 9.70 2.80 59.00 10.50 3.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
22-07-10 BUY 55.00 9.86 2.76 60.00 10.75 2.92

The Royal Bank of Scotland NV
08-07-10 BUY 55.02 9.81 2.90 60.02 10.56 3.10

Investec Securities
24-06-10 BUY 55.81 10.00 2.80 63.37 11.28 3.20

Altium Securities
28-05-10 BUY 56.80 10.40 3.20 61.90 11.20 3.50

2010 2011
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 55.30 9.96 2.83 60.76 10.90 3.14

1 Month Change -0.18 -0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.15 -0.01
3 Month Change -1.50 -0.44 -0.37 -1.14 -0.30 -0.36


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS -17.86% 24.00% 9.40%
DPS 0.00% 8.96% 11.01%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA £80.10m £86.35m £91.26m
EBIT £54.70m £m £m
Dividend Yield 1.91% 2.08% 2.31%
Dividend Cover 3.09x 3.52x 3.46x
PER 16.96x 13.67x 12.50x
PEG -0.95f 0.57f 1.33f
Net Asset Value PS 1.13p 51.10p 57.62p

[smarm] 24/7/2010 21:39

Phil - oh yes, oops, misread completely. Sorry. Hmmmm, I did that twice this morning; less haste more speed and all that.

Generally speaking SNR's debt would be considered too high but they were on a mission to reduce it and business was picking up.

Dancing P says, it should be around £80m next time and I would agree. 170 is my 2010 target.


S

[dancing piranha] 24/7/2010 17:43

I'd be surprised if they have more than £80m debt left after the upcoming results!

150p+ here we come.....

[pjm4] 24/7/2010 14:29

Smarm - I think you read my post wrong, i too think its cheap! and a great share, i just wasn't sure on their debt. The way i thought you looked at debt is anything below 15 x's profit to market cap is cheap anything above is too dear? is that correct?

thanks

Phil

[smarm] 24/7/2010 11:04

PJ - yes, 102, down from 174. There is exposure to exchange rates....a higher £ helps their debt but not their exports and vice versa.

Buying on fundamentals requires much research, you simply cannot just look at a number!

Tomkins bid was at 17x earnings, so why would you think 11x is expensive?

But look at the news.

Consolidation in the industry = more business for SNR
Substantial plane orders this week = more business for SNR going forward
Boeing and Airbus talking about ramping up production = more £££ for SNR short term
GKN trading statement says auto market strong = augurs well for SNR

So the question you should be asking is, will SNR come in below or above expectation?

Forecast EPS is 10 for this year. At 15x that's 150, so we are not far off fair value but what what if profit comes in at 60m for the year and not the 55m expected? Still expensive?

Going forward to next year...think about the ramping up of production and the consolidation in the industry and going forward think about the growth that comes/or will come from a sustained recovery.

DYOR but to my mind given where we are in the business cycle, SNR is a first class growth share.

However, if you are a doom and gloom merchant who thinks the auto industry is once again going to collapse and that the 'green' story is over and that nobody is going to be able to buy the more efficient 787 going forward, then I would take your profit and run for them 'ills.

All imvho.

S

[pjm4] 24/7/2010 08:47

Smarm - SNR , i have some of these thinking of upping my holding, do you know what their net debt is? i can see it was GBP102.3m in 2009. Its seems cheap though at 11x's profit to market cap does it not?

cheers
Phil

[broadwood] 23/7/2010 22:48

Boeing results next week.

[smarm] 23/7/2010 22:23

And looky looky here:



S

[smarm] 23/7/2010 12:05

Looking good:



S

[smarm] 23/7/2010 08:54

jojo - well, we're back to 138 so the question is can we now make a new high.

S

[jojo01] 22/7/2010 14:45

Smarm, a penny a day would be fine i suppose but 5p per day would be sweeeeeet! Rocketing. Braw day.

[broadwood] 22/7/2010 14:40

Torn between which song to whistle.

Ain't no stopping us now, or

I'm a believer.