Senior Share Discussion Threads

[trendfloor] 27/7/2010 08:06

Date Broker name New Price price target 28-Jun-10 Brewin Dolphin Add 126.00p 152.00p Brewin Dolphin with a 152p share price target first up.

[trendfloor] 26/7/2010 15:00

Brokers all with BUY ratings On a forward P/E of just 12.5 to 2011 I can see why derd cheap historicaly.... Senior PLC FORECASTS 2010 2011 Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Arden Partners 22-07-10 BUY 56.00 10.20 2.90 61.50 11.20 3.20 Brewin Dolphin Investment Banking 22-07-10 BUY 54.80 9.70 2.80 59.00 10.50 3.10 KBC Peel Hunt Ltd 22-07-10 BUY 55.00 9.86 2.76 60.00 10.75 2.92 The Royal Bank of Scotland NV 08-07-10 BUY 55.02 9.81 2.90 60.02 10.56 3.10 Investec Securities 24-06-10 BUY 55.81 10.00 2.80 63.37 11.28 3.20 Altium Securities 28-05-10 BUY 56.80 10.40 3.20 61.90 11.20 3.50 2010 2011 Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Consensus 55.30 9.96 2.83 60.76 10.90 3.14 1 Month Change -0.18 -0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.15 -0.01 3 Month Change -1.50 -0.44 -0.37 -1.14 -0.30 -0.36 GROWTH 2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E) Norm. EPS -17.86% 24.00% 9.40% DPS 0.00% 8.96% 11.01% INVESTMENT RATIOS 2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E) EBITDA £80.10m £86.35m £91.26m EBIT £54.70m £m £m Dividend Yield 1.91% 2.08% 2.31% Dividend Cover 3.09x 3.52x 3.46x PER 16.96x 13.67x 12.50x PEG -0.95f 0.57f 1.33f Net Asset Value PS 1.13p 51.10p 57.62p

[smarm] 24/7/2010 23:07

http://www.businessweekly.co.uk/2010070136714/aerospace-and-defence/senior-rides-aviation-industry-turbulence.html

[smarm] 24/7/2010 20:39

Phil - oh yes, oops, misread completely. Sorry. Hmmmm, I did that twice this morning; less haste more speed and all that. Generally speaking SNR's debt would be considered too high but they were on a mission to reduce it and business was picking up. Dancing P says, it should be around £80m next time and I would agree. 170 is my 2010 target. S

[dancing piranha] 24/7/2010 16:43

I'd be surprised if they have more than £80m debt left after the upcoming results! 150p+ here we come.....

[pjm4] 24/7/2010 13:29

Smarm - I think you read my post wrong, i too think its cheap! and a great share, i just wasn't sure on their debt. The way i thought you looked at debt is anything below 15 x's profit to market cap is cheap anything above is too dear? is that correct? thanks Phil

[smarm] 24/7/2010 10:04

PJ - yes, 102, down from 174. There is exposure to exchange rates....a higher £ helps their debt but not their exports and vice versa. Buying on fundamentals requires much research, you simply cannot just look at a number! Tomkins bid was at 17x earnings, so why would you think 11x is expensive? But look at the news. Consolidation in the industry = more business for SNR Substantial plane orders this week = more business for SNR going forward Boeing and Airbus talking about ramping up production = more £££ for SNR short term GKN trading statement says auto market strong = augurs well for SNR So the question you should be asking is, will SNR come in below or above expectation? Forecast EPS is 10 for this year. At 15x that's 150, so we are not far off fair value but what what if profit comes in at 60m for the year and not the 55m expected? Still expensive? Going forward to next year...think about the ramping up of production and the consolidation in the industry and going forward think about the growth that comes/or will come from a sustained recovery. DYOR but to my mind given where we are in the business cycle, SNR is a first class growth share. However, if you are a doom and gloom merchant who thinks the auto industry is once again going to collapse and that the 'green' story is over and that nobody is going to be able to buy the more efficient 787 going forward, then I would take your profit and run for them 'ills. All imvho. S

[pjm4] 24/7/2010 07:47

Smarm - SNR , i have some of these thinking of upping my holding, do you know what their net debt is? i can see it was GBP102.3m in 2009. Its seems cheap though at 11x's profit to market cap does it not? cheers Phil

[broadwood] 23/7/2010 21:48

Boeing results next week.

[smarm] 23/7/2010 21:23

And looky looky here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-21/airbus-boeing-cost-squeeze-may-spark-merger-boom-among-aircraft-suppliers.html S

[smarm] 23/7/2010 11:05

Looking good: http://www.kirotv.com/news/24356699/detail.html S

[smarm] 23/7/2010 07:54

jojo - well, we're back to 138 so the question is can we now make a new high. S

[jojo01] 22/7/2010 13:45

Smarm, a penny a day would be fine i suppose but 5p per day would be sweeeeeet! Rocketing. Braw day.

[broadwood] 22/7/2010 13:40

Torn between which song to whistle. Ain't no stopping us now, or I'm a believer.

[bailliej] 22/7/2010 13:21

Good figures being reported in the automotive sector. Bodes well for Seniors report. LONDON (SHARECAST) - The automobiles and parts sector has motored ahead after GKN, which makes parts for cars and planes, said an upturn in automotive markets has resulted in an strong improvement in trading. http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=3587300

[bailliej] 22/7/2010 11:05

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-21/airbus-boeing-cost-squeeze-may-spark-merger-boom-among-aircraft-suppliers.html

[smarm] 21/7/2010 15:19

And I don't recall seeing this here either: http://www.glgroup.com/News/Airbus-A320-China-Production-To-Increase-49169.html jojo - the days of SNR doubling fast are over....but I'll be happy enough with a penny a week for the next 5 years! S

[smarm] 21/7/2010 15:17

Was this posted in March? http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1211 Remember all orders today can't really be added to the bottom line....they have to be discounted in future years. When we see ramping up of production that means we can add to the bottom line. S

[jojo01] 21/7/2010 14:03

Smarm, also thanks for all your posts - very informative. Shame we've only managed to limp back up to 132p after all that great news. Fantastic prospects for the long term though.

[smarm] 21/7/2010 09:44

RBS Aviation orders 52 Airbus A320's and 43 737's. Broadwood - no problem. It looks like a bumper harvest for the new plane market this year. Certainly all very very good news for SNR. S

[broadwood] 21/7/2010 09:41

smarm - thanks for all your posts. Looks like they have orders now stretching out to 2020.

[smarm] 21/7/2010 09:38

Garuda orders 6 A330's. S

[smarm] 21/7/2010 09:08

GKN report demand in auto markets ahead of views. Sounds good to me. S

[smarm] 20/7/2010 11:23

Tomkins taken out at 17x earnings, makes SNR look cheap. S