Seeing Machines Share Discussion Threads

[zero the hero] 23/9/2019 13:14

This much awaited RNS has turned the month into yet another layer of Jam tomorrow. September was talked about as the month we could look forward to but again I am unimpressed with the RNS writers for another uninspiring "grey" RNS. We cannot blame Ken this time.

Meanwhile the Aviation news does not break, and the longest "short" story is still being conceived by the CEO!

I have no doubt about the long term multiples, but the short term (how many years since I first bought in?) is drab and frustrating. I may be in a modest profit at these levels but holding these is a major test of patience.

[mirabeau] 23/9/2019 13:04

Seeing2020 Premium Member

Posts: 4,599

Price: 4.125

Strong Buy

Greater strategic value than MobileyeToday 11:52

Read this slowly a few times, this isnt my speculation this is an extract from today's (my change) Cenkos note

"Further supporting our target price, we note a few final points. Firstly, the perceived risk and
hence cost of capital for Seeing Machines will decrease steadily as the market gets increasingly
comfortable with the company’s plan to reach profitability without further dilutive equity fund
raises. This will increase the perceived Net Present Value of the future Automotive cash flows
from the market share position won in automotive DMS. This future value was also seen in Mobileye which traded on significant forward multiples as the market factored in the expected
long-term cash flows expected from its selection as the core technology provider for forward
based camera solutions by more than half of the OEMs. The further jump in value when acquired
by Intel was supported by both a cost of capital arbitrage opportunity on the future cash flows
but also the strategic value to Intel of a dominant technology platform in the automotive
industry.

On this last point, we note that one could argue that Seeing Machines has greater strategic value
than Mobileye has as we highlight the ever-increasing importance for reliable face, eye and
emotion tracking in the real world for many applications beyond automotive and
transportation; from retail, medical, personal robots and personal computing devices. This value would be seen not just but major chip and software platform providers like Intel, but also the
world’s tech giants."

[338] 23/9/2019 11:30

Come on sellers, the institutions want to pay your shares for cheap...

[lfc4ever] 23/9/2019 10:43

is anyone able to cut/paste the Cenkos note, please?
thanks in anticipation....

[338] 23/9/2019 09:02

50dma has crossed above 200dma a while ago, I expect another test of 4.5p in a couple of weeks

[mirabeau] 23/9/2019 08:46

b7

I think that's fair comment. This is the bottom for the company. It can only get better from here, hopefully...

at least we're blue

[base7] 23/9/2019 08:07

Following the Fleet disaster I am sure that PM wasnt to manage expectations of all stakeholders & todays projections are therefore pretty conservative.We are less than 3 months into FY20 & there remains plenty of scope for upgrades following the signing of additional deals & especially of licensing deals are signed across our various transport sectors.I believe that our main investors wanted a statement like today & the Results were disaster free.A material reduction in the cost of Guardian units by 31/12 will improve our margins substantially & the appointment of a CFO is a positive (assuming she is committed & doesnt quit after 6 months ).
I am encouraged & see our current share price as a base from which to improve-although the Market may have a different view

[rjcdc] 23/9/2019 07:31

Good set of results, but nothing earth shattering. Disappointed they haven’t highlighted a revised breakeven date but all in all enough to keep the interest for now...

Some new contract wins are needed...

[hiddendepths] 23/9/2019 07:18

Well, happy enough with that, especially the outlook!

The explosive growth should be 2020-2023 but next year seems to be when it starts to kick up sharply.

Thinking of topping up while the company remains so out of favour. If this doesn't multibag over the next four years I'm a Dutchman, as the mysterious old saying goes.

[338] 23/9/2019 07:15

Very good progress 👍

[skinny] 23/9/2019 07:02

.

Operational Highlights:

· Further validation of Seeing Machines' Driver Monitoring System (DMS) technology with two new Automotive OEM program awards, one in China and one in North America, both to be delivered via the FOVIO Chip.

· Expanded Automotive program awards confirmed with two existing large Automotive OEM customers, one in North America and, post-period, one in Germany.

· European Parliament voted to mandate driver monitoring technology in all cars, vans, trucks and buses, adding weight to direction from the European New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) which has confirmed it will mandate driver monitoring technology, among other features, to incorporate additional safety features in new cars, starting from 2022.

· Guardian is connected to over 16,000 vehicles globally and, further to the divisional review and subsequent changes, is set to deliver scale benefits to the Company from 2020 with improvements in direct costs, hardware simplification and efficiencies in its delivery of monitoring services.

· The Aviation Division launched its Crew Training System (CTS) using the Company's eye-tracking technology, and successfully completed two commercial deals to install CTS into Full Flight Simulators for the Royal Australian Air Force and L3 Harris Training Solutions.

· The Guardian Backup-driver Monitoring System was launched to the market and is now being installed into the autonomous fleet of one of the world's leading self-driving car companies based in North America.

Financial Highlights:

● Revenue increased 4% to A$31.9m (2018: A$30.7m)

● Guardian revenue (A$13.7) for FY19 more than doubled from H1 FY19 (A$4.2m) to H2 FY19 (A$9.5m)

● Gross Profit increased 246% to A$18.7m (2018: A$7.6m)

● Annualised Recurring Revenue of A$12 million at 30 June 2019

● Total contracted revenue for the Automotive business of approximately A$200m, with the majority to be recognised in the 2021-2024 period based on projected lifetime OEM volumes

● Completed A$58.1m (£31.57m) equity placing and open offer in April 2019

● Cash (including term deposits) at 30 June 2019 of A$64.3m (2018: A$42.8m)

Strategic Highlights:

· Seeing Machines' strategic focus is on leveraging the value of its expansive Intellectual Property (IP) asset. The Company is now in advanced discussions across a range of transport sectors regarding exclusive licensing arrangements with the aim of expediting mass-market deployment in strategic markets, through industry-leading partnerships.

· Costs associated with the manufacture of Guardian hardware have been closely reviewed and, with the support of Seeing Machines' supply chain partner, the Company expects to deliver a material reduction in costs which will significantly improve the gross profit of Guardian hardware sales. The outcomes of these discussions are expected to be agreed before the end of Q2 FY2020.

· Seeing Machines signed an extended exclusive Agreement with long-standing mining customer, Caterpillar Inc. on 19 August 2019. The Agreement is extended for a further five years and outlines proposal for further development of the Company's IP into the Guardian and mining product (Driver Safety System) to co-develop next generation technology to enhance customer experience. The Agreement has also redefined exclusive Fields of Use for Caterpillar and has opened up a range of Fields now accessible directly by Seeing Machines and its channel and distribution partners.

· Seeing Machines has appointed Naomi Rule as CFO who will commence with the Company on 1 October 2019 as a member of the senior management team reporting to the CEO. Naomi has a strong track record of transforming finance operations and teams and is an experienced CFO.

o Naomi has worked in Europe, US and Asia with exposure to global and large corporations.

o Her most recent role was CFO at Blue Sky Alternative Investments (ASX:BLA) where she was engaged to conduct an investigation into the business' financial function and provide the CEO and Board with a comprehensive analysis and transformation roadmap to repair legacy issues and conduct a business turnaround.

o Prior to this Naomi has held a range of senior finance and operational roles across a range of businesses.

o Naomi is currently a non-executive director of the 100% Project, an organisation influencing workplace cultures on gender equality in leadership and providing solutions for sustainable change.


Outlook:

· FY2020 Company revenue is expected to be in the range A$45 to A$50m, reflecting an increase of over 40% on FY2019

· Connected Guardian units are expected to be in the range 27,000 to 30,000 units by 30 June 2020, reflecting 68% growth on FY2019

· Annualised Recurring Revenue as at 30 June 2020 expected to be in the range of A$18m to A$20m, representing growth of 50% on FY2019.

[base7] 22/9/2019 23:20

Utah bus crash in which 4 tourists tragically died & 5 critically injured yesterday .Could Guradian,if installed,have helped?

[sefton1] 22/9/2019 17:02

what a pile of doodoos

[tarrant777] 21/9/2019 12:27

Looking forward to results but tinged with some apprehension as SEE has far more often disappointed than excited and lots of people, like me, must be down a long way on their "in price".Stock price movement in the run up to the announcement doesn't suggest either that we are about to be delighted!!

[skinny] 21/9/2019 09:00

See the link in post 14490.

[sportraider1] 21/9/2019 08:28

So when are the year end results actually released? SEE website states 23/09/2019 and webcast is 24/09/2019. Have they changed the date or is the webcast a live discussion on the results released the previous day? Anyone know.

[mirabeau] 21/9/2019 05:54

SEE mentioned a few times -

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Wow. All right. So speaking of the trend of the market, I thought it was very clever of you to actually give it a name: the transition from CASE to CAPE. Please explain what CASE is and what CAPE is.

COLIN BARNDEN: So CASE was the phrase du jour of two years ago really for the industry. Everybody talking about Connectivity, Autonomous, Shared and Electrification. And as we've been talking about, and as I've been writing for the EETimes this year, really the trend that I'm seeing is much more about assisted driving rather than autonomous driving. And really what's coming out now is that it's all about the individual. So this trend that people were talking about so much about mass mobility in service and robotaxis. What I'm seeing now is much more privately owned vehicles with content and experiences really very much tailored to the individual user. Even to the point of play lists, automatic seat positions based on interior cameras that are measuring the size and the weight of the driver...

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Yeah, that's interesting.

COLIN BARNDEN: ...and moving the seat and the wheel into an optimal driving position.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Yeah. How do they do that. I mean, what technology is used to individualize the seat setting and all that?

COLIN BARNDEN: So there's two ways you could do that. One is either a time-of-flight camera or the other one is an infrared vision camera, which is starting to be installed in the car now through driver monitoring systems. And essentially it's looking at the driver's body and just making an estimation, and very good actually from the system of what your position is and what your size is. And then moving the seat forward or back, moving the seat more upright or laid back, and then moving the steering wheel up and down. And the experience that I had was the driving position was perfect.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Wow. That's pretty amazing. So well us a little bit about electrification. We knew it was coming, and all the regulations etc. But I also read in the Financial Times today, they were talking about over this past weekend when the show was open to the public, there was a big demonstration against the automotive industry in general. What's going on?

COLIN BARNDEN: So I didn't see any of the demonstrations. I was in the show the whole time. But I think if we go back to 2015, we get what's now known as Dieselgate, which was really the talk about VW and some of the VW brand using what was subsequently termed a "defeat device" to defeat the emissions testing regulations here in Europe and also in the US. And I think really what people are demonstrating against is generally the emissions, the tailpipe emissions, of the internal combustion engine. So there's really this whole talk about, you know, What if we go to electrification and we have zero emissions.

But the argument that I've always made is, all that's actually happening is, you're moving the emissions from the tailpipe to the public generation infrastructure. Because you can't generate electricity emissions free, unless you're doing it through nuclear. You can do it through renewables, but you've obviously got issues. The sun doesn't shine at night. So really I think that a lot of people really are saying, we don't want the emissions. And my question is, "Well then, how do we actually do transportation? What actually is the solution?" So it's really quite a complex problem, and it will go on for decades.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: But the clear trend was, at the show, it seems like electrification is no longer just for the luxury car, but really the mainstream, everyday car?

COLIN BARNDEN: Precisely. So there were electric VWs, there were electric Hondas. Essentially there's electric vehicles now offered by all of the mainstream brands. Whether they can make the vehicles profitable is still unknown. But that's the direction really that it's going into. And this is really the trend that I'm seeing now, is that the huge development costs of the OEMs and the tier ones have had for electric vehicles. If they're going to continue doing that now into autonomous driving, at what point have they bled so much red ink that they have to say, Hang on; stop. We just don't have a viable business here if we keep doing this. And I think what I saw here in 2019 is the OEMs and the tier ones essentially saying the development costs of this technology are now getting so huge and vehicle sales are falling that we've got a problem here with our business models. So really 2019 was the first time I've seen true distress in the industry.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Oh, interesting. All right. One more thing that I wanted to ask you is that you talk about the personalization, but you also mention in your story Byton's new model. I guess that's a concept car I guess. The 48-inch screen? Tell me... To me, that seems really obscene. Tell me a little bit about that.

COLIN BARNDEN: Okay. So you actually have to see it for real. You have to see that car. And it's a production vehicle. So it goes into production for China in the first half of next year, and it will go to the US and Europe for production in the beginning of 2021. So what you've got there-- and you would think that that's actually highly dangerous to have a screen that big. A) it's distracting, so they have got a very advanced driver monitoring system there to make sure that the driver is paying attention to the road. So this I believe is a system from Seeing Machines. And I think that will probably be the most advanced driver monitoring system in use in a production vehicle when that car launches next year.

And also what they're doing is essentially enabling the information in front of the driver separately from the passenger. So you can have navigation information and other driving information in front of the driver, and then in front of the passenger you can have video, you can have play lists, you can have all sorts of essentially personalized entertainment. And what Byton were very clear about is the fact that they've got crash-resistant coating. It's a double-coated screen, not only to reduce reflectivity and reflection, but also in the event of a crash, the glass that is part of the display won't go flying around the cabin. So it looks at first like it's a very dangerous situation, and yet there's a lot of thought that's been put into the design of that system to make it crash-safe and usable in everyday driving.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Okay, great. I said that was the last question, but I just couldn't resist asking one more question. In your story, you said your favorite was BMW's Concept Four. Why is it your favorite?

COLIN BARNDEN: It looks fantastic. But what I actually got from talking to the tier ones is, I can start to piece together parts of what is going into that car. So it's going to be I believe the first production vehicle with a Mobileye Q5, which is obviously going to be very exciting. That's the next generation, the Mobileye technology. I believe it's going to have the most advanced driver monitoring system in 2021. Again, I believe that's from Seeing Machines. And if my estimation is correct, then I saw Continental in a side presentation at the show demonstrate for the first time what they call augmented reality HUD, Head Up Display. And that's using the entire windshield as a head up display. And I've never seen that before. I actually talked about it in my piece in December last year called, "The Eyes Have It." And I was talking about that as a concept in maybe 2028. And I suspect actually that might be in that BMW in 2021. And I suspect that will be the start of CES 2021. So the shape is fantastic, and I suspect some of the features and functionality that are part of the user experience of that car are going to be really, really exciting to watch. So I'm looking forward to that being released.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: All right. On that note, well thank you so much, Colin.

COLIN BARNDEN: Thank you very much, Junko. Always good to talk to you.

BRIAN SANTO: Now, I’ve sat in a Byton, and that dashboard truly is impressive. It wraps all the way across the cabin from the driver’s side to the shotgun seat. It struck me as a massive distraction, but perhaps, once on the road, it won’t be. We’ll have to see what happens when people start buying and driving them.

[zero the hero] 20/9/2019 17:31

Fleet back on track is a bare minimum (PM has already stated this)but any share price rise is totally dependent on FY20 projections saying SEE will be ahead of expectations, if they use more positive wording then that would really get the share price rolling.

I'd be surprised if Aviation news drops Monday, but then again PM's idea of news on this coming "Shortly" (2 months ago) was already a surprise. The September I was hoping for on this share has been a bit of a damp squib so far!

Those lumpy sells have not matched any buys so my guess is that Lombard may be picking up those and a bigger buy announced next week (mirroring last week)

[dplewis1] 20/9/2019 16:24

Couple of quite lumpy sells gone through this afternoon..let's hope they don't know something we don't.

[base7] 20/9/2019 12:06

Monday is the big day & lets hope the news is positive & that the projections for FY20 are at the higher end,or exceed, current expectations.I presume that work will be starting on some of our Auto contracts which should generate additional revenue & hopefully it will be confirmed that Fleet is back on track & we are on track to exceed expected installed units of 27k by 30/6/20 -apart from more news regarding the "promised" Aviation contract which has not yet been announced together with licencing news,which could itself be transformational & confirm financial self sufficiency.
Have a good weekend all & lets hope Monday starts very positively.

[dplewis1] 20/9/2019 11:19

Bit odd that you can buy at so far under the ask though..

[ewanwhose] 20/9/2019 10:38

Over 1M buys over on NEX today!

[rjcdc] 19/9/2019 07:19

SP Needs to start moving north soon... here’s hoping that some new news comes out on Monday and not just an uninspiring set of results.

This is a chance for SEE to really set things out clearly, be positive and get things moving with a bit of excitement.

If the results are flat and no effort seems to have been made then it might be time to bow out...