Nice post. Reflection period |
 Not for anyone here to persuade you either way-that decision is yours,& as we are all aware,AIM has been a very poor market over the last couple of years! I will explain why I remain-
1)Paul & Martin reiterated FY24 guidance on 18/3 , ie for revenues of $66.30m,with an increased cash balance based on destocking of G2 units & a substantial reduction in monthly cost
2)They continue to expect cash flow break even later this calender year
3)Our contract with VW started last month which should increase our Q4 KPIs & Q3 should be positive ( if we remain on target to meet FY24 revenue forecasts
4)Paul continues to expect us to win 40% share of the overall Auto market & more by value as ours is a premium product compared to some of the competition
5)Aviation is apparently progressing well towards our first commercial contracts via Collins & they should be sticky long term contracts
6)Collaborations with organisations like FORS ( & others) should ensure a steady increase in G3 installations & monitoring & if we Pauls expectation of 25% growth is steady , if achieved, rather than exponential ( which some of us hoped for )
7) Like many I invested far too early & have averaged down over the years but if we really are very close to the inflection point where we go from loss making to being profitable ,there is a good chance that our share price will rerate - once proven & it would kill me to see our share price increase towards the Stifel target if I bailed at our current share price
8) Paul bought 500k+ shares following results & although I would have preferred to see Martin & other Directors/Pdmrs buying too, £20k is a bit more than a token investment to comfort stakeholders
I am mindful that Paul has missed targets previously, & ambitious targets previously have been managed down & we are in a fast moving market & we never know what the competition may be up to or indeed the OEMs,most of whom have their own in house tech departments-so clearly our share price may be weak for reasons other than AIM market malaise.
Having been here this long I am prepared to remain invested & see how the next few months unfold while appreciating that if we do miss the near term expectations the Market will be unforgiving.
Good luck with whatever decision you make |
Tempted to press the button here and take my loss Anyone persuade me not to |
3 year low now, I thought this was a growth stock! |
Nico: not when the director buys are at rock bottom prices and their idea of a good exit / selling price is potentially a lot lower than long suffering shareholders that believed all the hype over the years. |
Never turn director buying into a negative .It's a positive |
I'll bite your hand off for 10p |
Be careful what you wish for. Directors buying at these levels will only incentivise them to accept a low ball offer if one ever comes. Paul and Martin will see a nice return over a very short time frame if they receive an offer at 10p+. Long term holders that have suffered dilution, a long list of failures and missed targets will all be hoping for significantly more. I can see it now when the BoD recommend a low ball offer that rewards them and shafts us. |
Busy day today but pleased to see director buys. |
I'm not long here But my best mate isGreat to see director buying .Always a good sign . |
Paul buying 500k shares on Friday may steady the ship & may herald the start of more Director/PDMR buying |
Well, that's been a bit of a car crash! |
What about the share price though? |
jpuff
the whole point is to stop a car crash
and it works! |
How SEYE gets away with its PR utter nonsense investor interviews lies is just incredible. After saying they needed no cash to breakeven just a few weeks ago, they now raise £10m!!! I'm personally not surprised, as the recent news flow is highly suspect IMHO. How can investors believe anything they say. They have a broken business model. Too much Non reoccurring revenue on the hope it will pick up the business. |
This is alas looking like a very slow motion car crash |
I see SEYE has won a fleet deal which it has been making a lot of noise about today. I find this a little suspect as it coincide with its share price collapsing over the last couple of days. Red flag? Who knows. Meanwhile SEE remains suspended status.
There are a lot more clever people here than me, but if VW is the German OEM with SEE's software/Magna mirror, from my research its in the Polo, ID4, ID 7, Taigo, ID5, T Cross, T-Roc Tiguan, Passat and Scala (Skoda) |
PG also underplayed just how big Magna & indeed Collins might turn out to be.
The forecasts provided by SEE suggest that they guided quite conservatively for the next 2 years on Fleet.
Meanwhile SEYE has failed to record any sales for their Fleet product AIS launched 3 years ago.
I believe in SEE's G3 because if you look at the impact on world GDP of vehicle accidents i.e. an unbelievable 2%, basically this is a very very expensive problem. A device to prevent lorry accidents? Got to be worth a lot of money including saved insurance premiums. So I like SEE's top end solution. Been early to the game. So they are ready for the build up to 26. |
Following submitted questions Paul has finally had to admit that yet again he over hyped the business. This time it was the Gen 3 opportunity and the GSR deadline of July 7th 2024. For the first time he has conceded publicly that camera-based DMS is not a regulated requirement until 2026 and that alternative non camera-based systems using the steering wheel can be used and almost certainly are the preferred option for truck makers until 2026. I say this because with just 3 months to go until the deadline we haven't gone into production with Gen 3, we've only announced 1 contract, the others have announced contracts, but they aren't being installed until 2025 / 26 and the sales targets they forecast didn't align with the annual market size for Europe of 330K vehicles.
People can call this what they like, but there has been a deliberately attempt since the London Town hall meeting to deceive and over egg the potential for Gen 3 post the 2024 GSR date while never talking about alternative solutions. Now the drop dead date is almost here and the contracts haven't arrived questions are being asked. Only this time there's nowhere hide or deceive. He has been rumbled again.
I therefore do not expect significant sales of Gen 3 and by the time we get to 2026 there will be significant competition. |
VW Advanced driver attention and drowsiness monitor systems (Magna) is in virtually all its 2024 models, also in Skoda. If the rear view mirror solution gets max Euroncap rating, I can see many volume OEM's moving to Magna. |
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