Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 13/1/2025 08:13

Bermuda no point looking at the static market cap because the IP has ballooned since

so is the static MCap correct or the IP has somehow been undervalued or fallen in value

[inanaco] 13/1/2025 08:11

with the markets turning on Labour .............

the End is neigh they will never again be accepted as credible and they don't have the talent depth or the ideology to cope with this

Pound hits fresh 14-month low
The value of the pound has plunged to its lowest level since November 2023 amid ongoing concerns about the health of the public finances.

Sterling dropped as much as 0.7pc against the dollar in early trading to $1.212, having started the year at more than $1.25.

The pound was down 0.3pc against the euro, which is worth 84.1p.

[bermudashorts] 13/1/2025 08:09

Back in 2012 Scancell only had 194m shares in issue and half of them were held by the BOD and II's with a notifiable interest. At the time sentiment was riding high due to fabulous SCIB1 results (sound familiar?) and the Moditope news was completely unexpected. With so few shares in issue and surprise news which the market loves, the rise to 60p wasn't that surprising. It equated to a market cap of about £116m which after the spike quickly settled to just under the £100m mark.

Today there are 1.036 billion shares in issue (and that's without CLNs). If comparing valuations between now and then, the meaningful figure is market cap rather than share price ie. not 60p down to 10p but a fairly static market cap.

[inanaco] 13/1/2025 07:51

as for this statement


So I don't see a spectacular rise on some mega-RNS. I see a slow linear climb towards the TD valuation as data lowers the risk and time elapses thus getting nearer to revenue.


utter nonsense

our market is Big Pharma

it creates an instant mega RNS especially on late mid stage Assets like SCOPE or soon to be Moditope which is catching up as they have defined the niche

[inanaco] 13/1/2025 07:48

Ruck has not posted anything that we didn't know 10 years ago ....

what he did not mention ... the £12 was his valuation

he also didn't mention the 3.5p dip was caused by a forced seller

[inanaco] 13/1/2025 07:44

first Ruck your confusing Risk of the Shareprice with Risk of Scancells science

you then combine them as one Risk .. when actually it is not

example Calculus selling is not because of Scancell, its way the fund operates

that puts a risk on the share price depending on how quick that exit is ...

but its mitigated by the number they hold ie its time dependant

which means its the risk of not loading up ... that is in play

rather than permanent damage to the IP due to a failure of the science

that applied to Covid causing damage to Modi and scope by delay ... etc etc

they are secondary Risks which are not permanent

now a major risk was Manufacture of Modi1 ... but that got resolved to ... and will not be repeated because of Snapvax

so each stage of the trial carries different risk

if you lump them together you don't get the benefit of Good Risk "calculus selling"

because its a buying opportunity

[torquayfan] 13/1/2025 07:36

Ruck good post - thanks for digging out the facts.

So we've had 3 daily rises of 50% in the past - one today would be nice but at 15p still not exciting for some, (3 successive daily rises of 50% would be great LOL).

Scancell's 65.2p in October 2012 was achieved with much less in the armoury than of now.

IMO 30p is not much of an ambition. Another commercial deal is more than possible and then, who knows? But I agree 30p would be good for a start.

And thanks again Ruck. GLA

[nigelpm] 13/1/2025 07:24

Another tremendous post ruck. I wish people would actually read what you write and learn from it...you are clearly highly knowledgeable

[ruckrover] 13/1/2025 07:23

Nigel,"More drivel...this time from Torquay...why can't posters check facts before posting??"Posters often make mistakes and others will post a correction. In fairness, TF will acknowledge his mistakes - shame that's not true of everyone.

[ruckrover] 13/1/2025 07:19

"I see there's a bit of 'valuation' discussion here too."Yes, always a contentious subject! I think the first thing to acknowledge is that the word "valuation" has many connotations and we need to differentiate between:The SPThe potential fiscal value of the company, its revenue, IP and assetsWhat someone is prepared to pay for the above - will this be at a premium or a discount?A current "valuation" taking into account risk and time (like TD do)These will vary wildly. We know that share price is seldom aligned to the other three - todays share price is barely a third of the TD valuation. "I think it's fair to ask why Dalester's perception or any other changes through time, would now impede or preclude a sudden uplift similar to that of 2012?"Yes, it is fair to ask. I agree Dalester's perception wouldn't preclude a sudden rise but there have been many other changes through time that might.You have to remember where Scancell were in 2012 when Moditope arrived. They had a single product - SCIB1. This was going to be sold (in fact the whole company was going to be sold) for $500m. This was the equivalent of £3.20 per share, a share you might have picked up for 11p and could still buy for 30p. When Moditope was first announced, it was going to eclipse the valuation of SCIB and figures of £8, £12 and even £20 were banded around. 60p must have sounded a bargain. So could it happen again? No. Why? Because investors (in the main) are a lot wiser. They realise that Scancell already have more products in the pipeline than they could possibly progress themselves. They realise that drugs take a long time and lots of money to bring to market. And they realise that it is NOT "all about the science" and NOT "risk free"So I don't see a spectacular rise on some mega-RNS. I see a slow linear climb towards the TD valuation as data lowers the risk and time elapses thus getting nearer to revenue.

[nigelpm] 13/1/2025 06:59

More drivel...this time from Torquay...why can't posters check facts before posting??

[ruckrover] 13/1/2025 06:42

TF,

"Time to remember, that before Scancell had a fraction of the repertoire it has now, Scancell's share price went from 18p (?) to 64p (?), in just a few hours."

I'm afraid this is just not true. There has never been a daily rise of this magnitude in the history of Scancell. For the fact lovers, here they are:

The Moditope discovery was announced on 15/08/2012. The intra-day high was 27.9p and it closed at 25.28- 40% up on the previous days close. As the news was absorbed, the share price closed at 39.75 3 days later before pulling back to the low 30s.

The intra-day high of 65.2p was reached on Monday 8th October 2012, up 14% from the previous close of 51p. There was no news during the days leading up to this nor any after other than a notice of results and a statement from the BOD saying they were unaware of any reason for the rise.

Other daily rises in excess of 50% are:
24/04/2020 up 52% (news Scancell are to develop a COVID vaccine)
15/02/2021 up 52.7% (no news)
11/04/2022 up 57.2% (Modi1 phase 1/2 trial open.

Those are the plain facts, opinion may follow....

[sci102] 13/1/2025 05:17

And this, ladies and gents, is your average scancell investor.

[torquayfan] 13/1/2025 02:08

I see there's a bit of 'valuation' discussion here too.

Time to remember, that before Scancell had a fraction of the repertoire it has now, Scancell's share price went from 18p (?) to 64p (?), in just a few hours.

Dalester over there says that AIM "has become a chancers playground since then... its now home to day traders".

I think it's fair to ask why Dalester's perception or any other changes through time, would now impede or preclude a sudden uplift similar to that of 2012?

50%, 30p, 50p - who knows where, who knows when?

Maybe this week LOL. ATB

[torquayfan] 13/1/2025 01:51

Morning Ruck - after your admonition to me over there, I'm pleased to oblige.

I'll make the point again - please desist the constant baiting of Inan. He is one of the few Posters who I often want to read and he sometimes has useful insights. These can get missed because they can't be found, (except by obsessives).

I might want to see what Inan has to say, but I find you have switched on the vortex and made this BB impossible to follow.

The filter doesn't help much, because in a trail of 70 posts, it still leaves me 35, (Inan's), to work through to find some relevance.

ATB

[inanaco] 12/1/2025 18:01

i did i was discussing with Ivy his post ...............

you then stepped in with all filibuster ... boring the pants of everyone

stop trying to pass the buck ... its YOU that causes mayhem on both BB's

[ruckrover] 12/1/2025 17:34

". Is it really that difficult??"Apparently for Inan it is.Inan,How about you try and keep on topic for the next 24 hours. See how you get on.

[nigelpm] 12/1/2025 17:16

Another series of filters needed. This is wild. Just keep it on topic. Is it really that difficult??

[2tyke] 12/1/2025 16:56

Yes definitely synergy with inane...lol
It is hard to know the relative proportions of both 'ignorance' and 'denial' however.
Probably equal measures I'd suggest.

[inanaco] 12/1/2025 16:53

Ruck needs 2tyke for support ... how low can he go ?

[z1co] 12/1/2025 16:12

You always get ONE idiot on every forum and on this BB it happens to be you.

Hey idiot just prior to the recent placing shares price in November was over 16p.

You're just a short sighted 2 bit trader.

Like i have mentioned above your posts are a waste of space.

Easy 50% UPSIDE in the coming weeks.

[ruckrover] 12/1/2025 15:04

".and he has ZERO intellectual honesty."Maybe zero honesty and zero intellect? In this case the additive effect and synergistic effect are both zero.

[2tyke] 12/1/2025 13:11

Little point arguing with inane...
He doesn't understand risk at all....he doesn't understand how stocks move....and he has ZERO intellectual honesty.

[2tyke] 12/1/2025 13:10

I'd stick to football if I were you zico.
You are lost in the stock market....totally.
SCLP is worth 10p .....both buyers and sellers agree.
The notions of your feeble mind are IRRELEVANT.

[ruckrover] 12/1/2025 13:02

Hi Ivy, I hope you have got wise to me LOL