Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 12:33

The system has to have cost of development especially for rare disease

because the cost of discovery also carries the cost of failure

so unless the "prize" ie an approval is big enough "nobody would take the risk"

everyone can have the labour view of Morals and Greed ... but at the end of the day most of them have no money and need to be dressed by Lord Ali ...

which is why money talks ....

classic case of we will not tax the working man .....

instead they can make him "unemployable"

which is what you have now .....

Wes Streeting understands this .... he is sacking so called managers

and all companies are about to do the same ...

the cost of employing dead wood is now very high because of taxation ...

Labour has moved the Bar even Higher

the question is will the coming High Inflation coupled with negative growth

cause further tax rises ?

or a complete reset ?

Labour is NOT carrying the electorate its actually fighting them

on

Migration

Tax

Borrowing

and the worse "planning" with all views ignored

Fun and Games to come .....

but Trump and Farage understand it ....

[ivyspivey] 13/11/2024 12:31

Agree that the pricing will take all R and D costs into account so pointless trying to assess at this stage.
As Nana says NICE guidelines are about cost effectiveness and if SCIB proves successful I am in no doubt it will be a very cost effective option where relevant.

[miavoce] 13/11/2024 12:00

The pricing also accounts for the cost of developing the drug not just the cost of production. The cost of getting SCIB1 from discovery to market will be well in excess of £100m and this will be factored into the pricing.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 11:38

so what ! Nice pricing is based on efficacy QALY not cost of goods

QALY stands for quality-adjusted life year, a metric that combines the quality and quantity of a person's life into a single value:

Definition: One QALY is equivalent to one year of life in perfect health.

Calculation: To calculate QALYs, you estimate how many years a patient will live after a treatment and multiply each year by a quality-of-life score. Quality-of-life scores range from 0 to 1 and are often based on a person's ability to perform daily activities, freedom from pain, and mental health.

Use: QALYs are used in economic evaluations to assess the value of medical interventions and inform decisions about healthcare resource allocation. QALYs can be combined with medical costs to calculate a cost per QALY ratio, which shows how much a treatment costs compared to the number of QALYs it provides. This ratio can help determine if a treatment is a good value.

[willoicc] 13/11/2024 11:35

For those who do not seem to realise, there are rules against excessive profiteering on government contracts. Selling to governments is also subject to negotiation. If the price/benefit does not appeal, NICE will just refuse to approve it for NHS use. If we can find out the cost of production, you can be sure the government can too.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 11:19

From the FDA perspective, once the FDA approves a drug, healthcare providers generally may prescribe the drug for an unapproved use when they judge that it is medically appropriate for their patient.
You may be asking yourself why your healthcare provider would want to prescribe a drug to treat a disease or medical condition that the drug is not approved for. One reason is that there might not be an approved drug to treat your disease or medical condition. Another is that you may have tried all approved treatments without seeing any benefits. In situations like these, you and your healthcare provider may talk about using an approved drug for an unapproved use to treat your disease or medical condition.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 11:13

I suspect that cohort would not need a full blown phase 3 as it would be very tricky to run a random arm and would take years to recruit to .. but could get approved along with the registrational combo plus vaccine trial, I am not sure how, but worth a question to Lindy "After Results" if Scancell do not provide a direction for it.
Don't forget SCIB1 will be approved ... so can be used Off Label

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 11:04

I suspected that point but didn’t know Inan so thanks.

That makes it even more relevant then if it sees improved efficacy.

The side effect issue of course is relevant, if it sees 50% efficacy, it matches the BMS more toxic combo.

Interesting times ahead.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 10:57

Patients that enter the Keytruda/scib1 are not selected into that trial, its more to do with the fact that they would not be able to stand the toxicity of CTL-4

so its a very biased cohort of effectively weaker patients

patients do drop out of CTL-4 treatment due to toxicity

what the trial is showing is an alternative treatment

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 10:51

Scib trials

It would be a shame if Scib is chucking out such good results 80% ORR etc that the trial stops.

Scib1 at 41 and when done the HLA types move to Iscib+ so Iscib+ recruitment will accelerate soon.

What then🤷‍♂️ do those eligible then ponder going onto a known less effective cohort Scib1/Keytruda. But if that combo is demonstrating in early results around the 50% ORR mark then it’s safer than than BMS current BMS standard of care, with similar outcomes.

Given that scenario comes on the back of solid data, I imagine the knowledge of results will expand quickly and up interest in trial or treatment inclusion, but the door will be closed (full recruited).

Toxicity impact is not an issue, so it would be a shame for patients to be the BMS combo but with 30% missing out on partial or complete responses.

The cruel nature of trials.

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 10:38

Scib1

I thought the Scib1 plus Keytruda was/is a waste of time in comparison to the BMS combo.

But I didn’t appreciate trials are in play with others looking to match the standard of care 50% ORR, vaccine Keytruda combo, looking at improving safety, matching efficacy.

The Asco Scancell presentation suggests Keytruda alone results were 35%.

The Scancell cohort is looking at a 20% improvement (42%)

IoBio phase 3 results just out, vaccine plus Keytruda, efficacy about 33% which is on par with Keytruda alone 35% so a non runner on efficacy.

The only data we have for Scib1 plus Keytruda so far is 3 patients, 1 progressive.

2 partial responses… (66%)

One is -40.9% over 1 year in.
The other was -66.7% aggressive shrinkage week 13 and 19 on a steep regression looking capable of a swift CR.

Too few to get excited about just but interesting that 2 of 3 responded. But just one responding in the next 5 matches z Keytruda alone.

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 09:59

The vaccines added to existing standards of care seems to be the hot trend developing.

The investor market is oblivious. Anti Pd etc was the trend and in 100s of billions over time. Efficacy increasing vaccines can now be added taking the expiring patented products into another exclusive, higher efficacy/safety phase, revenue earning therapies.

[sci102] 13/11/2024 09:51

"He's not going to put any cats out of the bag! Will need to wait till late January I suspect."

I hope that at least he'll be honest about when to reasonably expect significant updates.

The standard practice in these cases is to announce something poaitive on the day to boost sentiment. But not very hopeful it will be the case. I do think though it could be in the next couple of days, for LD to announce before the new one takes over.

[marcusl2] 13/11/2024 09:12

Imagine what Moditope could be worth?


Modi-1

SCCHN, Head and neck

RCC, Renal

HGSOC Ovarian

TNBC Breast

Modi-2

possibly;

colon cancer, renal cell carcinoma and colorectal cancer, breast cell carcinomas and melanomas , pancreas, prostate, liver, colon, stomach and thyroid.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors market size was valued at USD 47.4 billion and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2024 to 2032

Scancell expects that the combination of its Modi-2 with a "highly effective platform" for inducing T cells - Vaccitech's SNAPvax technology - will lead to a "potentially superior" therapeutic vaccine candidate.

[marcusl2] 13/11/2024 09:02

So the INITIAL target for Scib is 1st line treatment in unresectable melanoma.

Market is 60,000 patients worldwide.

Scancell thinks they can get 25%

15,000 patients @ $100,000 equals $1.5 billion annually.

iScib-1 patent until 2039

Big pharma will expand the indications to the wider Melanoma market and make even more money (see bottom).

This should be a blockbuster for big pharma and have a huge profit margin.

I expect a huge deal, maybe for Immunobody. iScib-2 is in the lab.


iSCIB1+ has a number of competitive advantages, with potentially increased potency due to modifications to the product using Scancell's propriety AvidiMab® platform, and an extended patent life to 2039. iSCIB1+ is able to be used by a broader patient population because it incorporates more melanoma-specific epitopes.

The global melanoma therapeutics market size is calculated at USD 6.70 billion in 2024, grew to USD 7.39 billion in 2025, and is predicted to hit around USD 17.93 billion by 2034

[rogerbridge] 13/11/2024 08:24

Thank you for those two compelling posts, Marcus.
In simple mans terms, they are very effective.

[miavoce] 13/11/2024 07:46

Clearly Sclp will not be selling at this price (cost price) - if they did so it would take years to recoup their investment, let alone make a profit.

[gazza] 13/11/2024 00:15

Marcus, He says £100-1,500 per patient. I read that as cost to the patient. That won't add up to a £1.5B market.

[marcusl2] 12/11/2024 22:55

At the AGM I think Scancell reckons they can get 100k + for our vaccine.

Cheap to produce so a huge profit margin.

[gazza] 12/11/2024 21:27

"what i did not say ... we can make cancer vaccines for a chicken"Why would it work in ducks and hamsters but not chickens?

[nigelpm] 12/11/2024 20:46

He's not going to put any cats out of the bag! Will need to wait till late January I suspect.

[inanaco] 12/11/2024 19:55

your surmising .... rather than understanding that Moditope has potential in many cancers


The findings of this pilot study indicate that histone H3 deimination (CitH3) was strongly detected in almost all of the animal cancers assessed,


not only that ""what is the Scope of Moditope"" was the title ...

what i did not say ... we can make cancer vaccines for a chicken

only you would see that as a market