Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[ruckrover] 23/9/2023 13:26

And if there's anything left, shareholders might get up to 1.8p per share!

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 13:14

companies do it all the time ........

ATB

[bermudashorts] 23/9/2023 13:12

Re. The worst case scenario of Scancell putting themselves up for sale because they knew they were running out of cash and would go bust.

Honestly Inanaco, that's just wishful thinking. The only reason Scancell would find themselves in that situation is because they had been unable to secure any deals or equity funding to continue to operate. The situation would have to be pretty dire to reach that point. Under those circumstances who is going to want to buy them and how much do you think they're likely to pay? The reality is that they'd reach the stage where the auditors would refuse to sign off the accounts and the administrators would be called in. There would then be a fire sale of assets and there would be a long line of creditors taking priority over ordinary shareholders, including Redmile with their CLNs.

I'm sure Scancell won't find themselves in that situation but it's just not right to say that Scancell can't go bust - of course they can and don't forget that Redmile have the option whether to convert those CLNs or not.

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 13:12

Genmab scientists already have a Mab platform ... which they know works

the preclinical is characterising the target and building that into the MAB

Genmab scientist will know a lot more today than one year ago ...as Lindy says they are happy

thus the risk ratio has already changed over the past year

but if they bid on scancell they dont just get 1 Mab .... they get the glymab platform plus

with the knowledge that three other bio are interested

any CEO not looking at that as a opportunity should not be in the job


because the three bio looking at glymab could also bid or conclude a deal worth 1.8b .... and that has been valued by Genmab own deal


meanwhile BioNtech will not dismiss SCIB1 or Moditope as something they cant work with .....

so another potential suitor

[bermudashorts] 23/9/2023 12:57

Re. Genmab - they've already made their move and now own the rights to the IP they wanted. If Scancell is sold, they'll still own that IP and there's no reason to believe that they're more interested than any other bio/pharma in the rest of Scancell's pipeline. The deal they've signed is heavily back-end loaded which speaks volumes regarding the valuation and how Genmab see the risk/reward scenario. If Scancell were up for sale would they spend £130m now in order to save a potential maximum exposure of £619 in milestones and low single digit royalties? Or would they prefer to pay milestones which will start off low and increase as the risk decreases at each stage of the long development process? I suspect the latter but you believe the former.

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 12:27

this is a genuine question, I assume the £20m on the balance sheet refers to the CLNs

yes

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 12:26

because it would know it was going bust ..........

if unable to raise finance and it would know before it ran into trouble ....

at which point scancell could put itself up for sale

this is all speculation of course ....

lets assume another party bought scancell not genmab .......

it would still owe the balance of the agreement if it was successful


""Am happy to explain why if you want""

please do Bermuda

[bermudashorts] 23/9/2023 12:15

Inanaco,

Thanks for your replies - of course it's all speculation and IMO there's a good argument to be had that in a fire sale Genmab would be less likely than other bio/pharmas to make an offer for Scancell. Am happy to explain why if you want but it's all speculation anyway.

I just want to clarify my understanding of your 6154 and this comment:-

' scancell can't go bust it has no borrowing other than the £20m on the balance sheet which would technically cause a takeover in default'

This is a genuine question, I assume the £20m on the balance sheet refers to the CLNs but why can't Scancell go bust?

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 12:13

Ruck trained by Colin from accounts

for instance you could, but you dont have to add

Revaluation reserve is an accounting term used when a company creates a line item on its balance sheet for the purpose of maintaining a reserve account tied to certain assets. This line item can be used when a revaluation assessment finds that the carrying value of the asset has changed.

an inflection point for instance

[ruckrover] 23/9/2023 10:57

Oh dear, 24 hours of same old rubbish from Inanaco. Where do I start?

Well, how about

"MT thinks its risky at 16p"
No he doesn't, neither do I. You have a problem either undertanding English or communicating thoughts and ideas.
Let me explain again, NOT "NO RISK" does not equal "RISKY". Either you do not understand NOT "NO RISK" or you don't understand "RISKY". "RISKY" would imply a greater chance of failure than chance of success.

"if you feel scancells assets are not worth 16p x shares in issue ... then you could make the case for risk in this scenario"

The NAV (Net Asset Value) of Scancell (as published in the the last accounts):

Statement of Financial Position
At 31 October 2022, the net assets of the Group amounted to £15.4 million (30 April 2022: £18.1 million)
including cash at bank of £24.0 million (30 April 2022: £28.7 million).

So that's about 1.8p. So there is little risk of losing 100% of your 16p investment, only 14.2p (89%) of it.

You quote Burble:

"If you understand the science, you are able to make your own decisions as to where this company is going. If you understand the science you realise that SCLP is taking a different approach to others which could unlock many therapies for patients across the globe in oncology and now infectious disease. If you understand the science, you can also understand the risks involved in this area of investment/business."

You are trying to argue two diametrically opposed views. 1) There is No Risk and 2) You have to understand the science in order to understand the RISK.

You need to let one go.

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 08:49

useful content

Confirmation that you really are a complete nut job .......... the stuff that comes out of your twisted mind, to try and catch people out are beyond what anyone would consider as normal .....

however it just shows that some will never accept an "alternative view"

its there view or nothing .... Ivy, Ruck, MT, in fact anyone that think they understand risk ..........

but are unable to explain it


so for instance Crumbs had an alternative view .............

he has since changed that on reflection not because he has changed his stance on moditope but because another area of scancell proved its value beyond what he considered possible

who said this

"""If you understand the science, you are able to make your own decisions as to where this company is going. If you understand the science you realise that SCLP is taking a different approach to others which could unlock many therapies for patients across the globe in oncology and now infectious disease. If you understand the science, you can also understand the risks involved in this area of investment/business."""

Burble

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 07:50

inanaco - 22 Sep 2023 - 16:03:24 - 6161 of 6179 Scancell - Pot of Gold or POS? - SCLP
look we all know the share price fluctuates most of the time because folks get bored, can't read RNS or just dont have a clue about the science ... all they do is look at elliots waves and make a guess buy or sell

agreed ?

so share price is not the benchmark to value anything other than sentiment

[inanaco] 23/9/2023 07:48

"No risk" assets generally yield about 2% under normal interest rate conditions. Scancell shares are not "no risk".....not least because we all expect to make very much more than 2%! Hence the expression "no risk, no return".


you have switched from asset to Shareprice

Scancell shares are not "no risk"

Scancell shares will always be risky they fluctuate with sentiment

the asset backing the shares does not it has fixed inflection points

all my no risk applies to the asset value of completed trials ...

namely SCIB1 ..............

carries a higher value than the share price ....

if only you would stop and think about what i am saying ..........

[markingtime] 23/9/2023 07:05

Maths isn't necessary, in this case, because all you need to do is READ.Capital assets are priced on the basis of "risk free rate" PLUS..........the risk free rate is always taken as the interest rate on short-dated government-backed obligations. THAT is the very definition of "no risk"."No risk" assets generally yield about 2% under normal interest rate conditions. Scancell shares are not "no risk".....not least because we all expect to make very much more than 2%! Hence the expression "no risk, no return".Being a cut and paste addict, you may find something helpful and relevant for your problem in this paper.....which discusses risk and return for small companies with innovative science.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165410122000155Cheerio.....I'm away for a week now....

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 22:23

best leave it there MT

You introduce "" the Capital Asset Pricing Model""

but you don't have a clue how to use it

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 21:20

lol ....

well that's a technical answer ... so its not risky at 16p but not no risk ....

and you could not do the maths ...

then return to type ... The Bully Boy who can't get his own way !

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 19:33

you can find the algo here



✌✌✌;✌✌346;

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 19:21

what would now be very interesting if we can see the maths behind MT startling revelation

Ruck loves valuations ..........


What is the CAPM for dummies?

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model that describes the relationship between the expected return and risk of investing in a security. It shows that the expected return on a security is equal to the risk-free return plus a risk premium, which is based on the beta of that security.

over to you MT

lets see your results

please show workings ...

many thanks

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 19:15

The ImmunoBody therapeutic vaccine is one of Scancell’s four platforms, with the Moditope vaccine expected to deliver top-line Modi-1 CPI combination results during 2024 and the antibody platforms, GlyMab (anti-glycan mAbs) and AvidiMab, likely to see out-licencing deals too. Our Scancell rNPV valuation is £300.1m, or 36.7p/share.


MT thinks its risky at 16p ........or mcap of £130m

😂

meanwhile keytruda sales have hit $21 billion .............

Genmab has a cash reserve of Cash and cash equivalents 12,288m DKK (mar 23)

about 8 to the £

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 18:57

MT try's to introduce totally irrelevant Big Words .... capital asset pricing model ...

sadly you wont find that in the trinity valuation

[inanaco] 22/9/2023 18:51

I am sure you are a star Nigel sadly this is not about equity

but assets of which i hold plenty ...

LOL