Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 14:53

Thinking of attending the next AGM actually to meet you all.
Think inanaco and myself would get on famously.
Might even invest in his car park.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 14:51

I love the scancell BB's.
So much hot air and so little nous.
One or two make wiggy sound like an intellectual ! Lol

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 14:49

MT...
Oh, we need to wait another couple of months now do we, in your honest...
Well...that should bait the nerves !
After all...it was you that told us it was too risky to sell at over 20p because nobody knew when 'news' would come. No wonder some are disappointed !
But...as long as you keep saying the same thing...and hoping you become a stopped clock ..lol

[wigwammer] 17/7/2023 14:47

Good post, DC :)

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 14:37

Lol...who invests on rumour and gossip ?
All the LSE bulls...they've been doing it for ages !
Nods and winks from the CEO .....little snippets on-line from drug trials.
It doesn't work...does it ?
Distressed seller ?
Think you'll find there are lots of distressed sellers at present.
The stock price trajectory tells you why they were distressed !
You don't need to make anyone up...lol
Dear oh dear ..whatever happened to intellectual honesty !

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 14:28

Yes, studies of director buying and selling has shown that their timing is quite shocking.
Some try to defend this by saying that they felt they needed to support the stock price.
But one thing is clear....they wouldn't make good traders !

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 14:19

Yes, bought at considerably higher prices...and also watched the share price crumble !
Insider trading is usually a good contra-indicator.
They think like PI's....that's why !

[markingtime] 17/7/2023 13:31

I'll be interested to see if there is any insider buying.If not, then expect serious volatility..... because:1) They may not want to buy....or....2) Something is happening which means they are legally unable to buy.The CEO and Chair both certainly have financial capacity....as do some of the NEDs (incl Diggle, who has previously bought significantly higher..... )

[marcusl2] 17/7/2023 13:18

Recent Developments
Last Updated: 12/07/2023

Scancell announced a business and strategy update on 10 July which gives encouraging signs of progress and highlights key near-term inflection points which could be significant catalysts for the stock. Crucially it looks as if the new chairman (see below) has brought some focus to the company and they stressed their clinical-stage cancer vaccine portfolio,and seem to have put everything not in the clinic on the backburner. This is a change from what has sometimes seemed a scattergun approach in the past, informed by Lindy Durrant’s huge enthusiasm for developing the science that was coming out of her lab.



The market fell sharply on the 12th: it was unclear at the time of writing whether this was related to selling from management option exercise- whilst CEO Lindy Durrant has had options expiring in July extended, one former director is facing an expiry.



The company has two clinical trials ongoing, the phase II SCOPE trial, assessing SCIB1 in combination with checkpoint inhibitors (CPIs) in patients with advanced melanoma, and the phase I/II ModiFY trial assessing Modi-1 as a monotherapy and in combination with CPIs in a number of difficult to treat cancers. With both trials progressing well, this should set up key data readouts both this year and in 2024. The company has now completed the recruitment of 16 ovarian cancer patients in the ModiFY trial with 44% of these patients achieving stable disease for at least eight weeks (Dr David Pinato, Principal Investigator at Imperial College, was quoted in the RNS as saying that: “Advanced ovarian cancer is an aggressive cancer which is hard to treat. A disease control rate of 44% with Modi-1 in patients who have exhausted most treatment options is very encouraging”.) . The company continues to explore Modi-1 as monotherapy and in combination with CPIs in other difficult-to-treat cancer types with top-line data expected in 2024. The company also outlined the next steps for the SCIB1 programme, intending to incorporate iSCIB1+, its second-generation SCIB1 vaccine, into the SCOPE trial by 23YE with the potential of an accelerated clinical development program in 2H24.



The GlyMab antibody platform also remains a potentially rich source of out-licensing deals with the company continuing to develop this unique asset. These offer the potential for value creation in the near term through out-licensing but it is implicit that they are no longer working towards a Phase 1 trial themselves. In late October 2022 they announced a licensing deal with major Danish company Genmab to develop one of their Glymab programmes – maximum milestones are over $600m and the upfront was £5.3m, so other deals of this scale would be attractive.



We had the opportunity of a conversation (a recording is available on request to holders) with new chairman Jean-Michel Cossery as well as CEO Lindy Durrant at the end of May, which was very useful. Cossery, a veteran of Eli Lilly (where his jobs included head of oncology) has clearly brought some clear focus to the business and he stressed that they could not do everything, however good the science- and that implicitly we could see more disposals in the antibody area, and a focus on vaccines- this is completely in line with what has come out in the July announcement. Cossery observed that vaccines are hard and were a backwater- till Covid and BioNTech/ Moderna- but are now a “hot ticket”. He sees the inflection in terms of potential big pharma interest being at the point that there are credible numbers of patients (30-40) in clinical trials (and of course positive readouts). They have recruited a business development officer (arriving September) which is necessary to search out deals but this has not been a straightforward hire, and he saw the need to add to the team around Lindy. A new CFO is being hired, a Chief Medical Officer would be nice but not yet affordable.



In February 23 they announced the completion of the monotherapy dose finding arm of the multicentre Phase I/2 ModiFY clinical trial. Data to date showed that as a monotherapy the Modi-1 cancer vaccine is both safe and well tolerated and shows early efficacy with no dose limiting toxicities. Cossery in May noted that Modi is targeted at some of the toughest cancers and therefore may have a place at the top table. Equally in February the company had announced positive readouts for their Covidity trial, and as anticipated the stopping of any further work on it. They have achieved a proof in the clinic of the use of Avidimab, but in a crowded space they do not have the resources to continue work on it, and unless a larger company takes and interest a line has been drawn under it.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 12:59

Yes, lots of small bulls throwing in their hands on buyers remorse...same as always towards the end of a bear market.
Always amazes me how PI's who have seen their beliefs proved wrong time and time again....still try and convince themselves that they will be right this time.
But....that's what makes EW so accurate !
The folly of human behaviour.
Even the great genius Isaac Newton was finally convinced to invest the equivalent of 3 million in the south sea bubble.
They told him it wasn't risky.
Think inanaco told him.
He lost it all.
He famously said.....' I can plot the paths of the stars in the sky....but I will never understand the folly of men !!
All about human behaviour !

[panama7] 17/7/2023 12:50

Chilltime, Lindy had stated for 10 years that she had never seen anything like it in mice, for 10 years it was a " Serendipitous Discovery ", for 10 years it was going to be a " Monotherapy ". someone has been telling porkies for 10 years.

[panama7] 17/7/2023 12:46

Golchie, this will never see light of day on Nasdaq.

[marcusl2] 17/7/2023 12:38

one former director is facing an expiry

Price should lift when those are cleared and sentiment improves.

[chilltime] 17/7/2023 12:33

MT

I don't think for a minute anyone thought (unless off their rocker) that Modi would cure all cancers (tongue in cheek, I know)>

The target in commercial terms, is better than the standard of care, with a hope it can change the lives of some.

Trish was one of 2 given Modi for Head and neck.

Given that her options of an op, chemo and radiotherapy had all been used up, she was then left with Keytruda, which slowed the growth but wasn't stopping it.

Keytruda Head and Neck

In the trials 88% saw their cancer grow, spread or get worse.

So far from 2 patients on Modi, 1 partial response, 1 unknown.

[marcusl2] 17/7/2023 12:30

The market fell sharply on the 12th: it was unclear at the time of writing whether this was related to selling from management option exercise- whilst CEO Lindy Durrant has had options expiring in July extended, one former director is facing an expiry.

[golcheja] 17/7/2023 12:29

Maybe time to NASDAQ

[markingtime] 17/7/2023 12:17

Quite so, DC.We have been in classic "someone must know something" territory for the last few days. Those who paid 20p or so and expected a quick turn have been disappointed. But little fundamental has changed.... the trials are still progressing and seeing some degree of success, but (as it stands) Modi-1 isn't a total gamechanger that cures all cancers.But that doesn't mean it won't have major commercial value.Personally, I think news in the next couple of months will demonstrate that.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 12:12

Optimism and pessimum cycle at certain key points Dominic. Similar points repeat throughout the price series
As you see, it's spotting these points that is difficult .
By thinking about company things you blind-side yourself . As with SCLP. You'd be best to think contra to the events.
For example...at 29p everybody was bullish ...the share price simply had to fall (nobody left to buy).
At 9p most will now feel panicky and bearish (few left who want to sell)...what's likely to happen ?
........…....................................
Nigel...when the RNS was released the share price went up ....you are making up a false story in hindsight.
And ...Correlation is completely different to causation !

[nigelpm] 17/7/2023 12:03

Yes, but the fall from 14p after RNS to 9p is note worthy! £110m down to £74m.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 12:00

It's all in the method and the numbers. Never 'beliefs' or company factors.
Most PI's simply fall in love with what they call 'potential'.
They dream of the next big thing. The odds are totally against them. They go in too heavy based on things like 'takeover hopes'. Never a good reason to buy. Most takeovers are of distressed companies anyway.
They make excuses when things don't play out as they expect and kid themselves still more.
Well...I think you get the picture.
But stopping doing this is the key thing. It starts with educational honesty.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 11:54

Yes 3 wins out of 10 is ALL that is necessary if you have a method that works.
That's because even if the 7 losing trades come one after another, they are cut short thanks to EW, Because it allows for a low risk entry point, and tells you quickly if you are wrong.
I'm contrast the winning trades are allowed to run all the way up to the target price, allowing for a risk/reward metric of around 5 to 1.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 11:46

Wiggy, I'm gonna help you a bit more because you are totally confused by this 'method stuff'
EW is a road-map of price, a tool. It happens to be the best tool out there. But it's an art-form that most traders don't understand. You can't validate that. You don't need to to use it effectively. You just need to understand the un-folding sentiment patterns and the clear price points that tell you whether you are right or wrong. It is backed up by other TA oscillators and signals.
What can be proved is ones 'method' which is based on risk/reward and fund allocation as well as the technical analysis and EW. By spotting the low risk areas to trade and only using a certain percentage of ones money, and knowing when or where to exit the trade, one can have a method which proves itself conclusively over time.
Using my method I only need to be right 3 times out of 10 to be profitable. I tend to win on 8 out of 10 trades. It's not about being 'right'. It's about being profitable.
You on the other hand will never have a consistent feel for profits...they are in the lap of the fundamental gods...lol

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 11:31

Chill time,
SP moves are always down to sentiment...that's my whole point. It's internally driven.
Not by false 'beliefs' though.
They are all yours.
Traders are 't interested in 'beliefs'. Try profit and loss .
It's you who's not been focussed on that.

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 11:27

Chill time,
SP moves are always down to sentiment...that's my whole point. It's internally driven.
Not by false 'beliefs' though.
They are all yours.
Traders are 't interested in 'beliefs'. Try profit and loss .
It's you who's not been focussed on that.