Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[2tyke] 17/7/2023 07:36

Oh, wiggy thinks a downward revision to share price is now justified by the update ! Lol
Not what he and the other bulls were saying when it was released and the share price rose a little is it ? Lol
Complete reaction in hindsight to the share price T'was ever thus !

[inanaco] 16/7/2023 23:45

Point 1

This is a huge learning curve as nobody before us has generated CD4 Killer T cells

Lindy is correct the major effect of PD-1 is targeted CD8

However it appears that Dendritic T cells engaging CD4 (activating) with PD-1 stimulation does have an effect on CD4 Helper T cells


The presence of exhausted CD8 T cells within tumors, being indicative of an ongoing antitumor immune response, is correlated to clinical responsiveness to ICB (7, 10, 25). Clinical responses are correlated to both exhausted tumor Ag–specific CD8 T cell proliferation (7, 26, 27) in the periphery and at the tumor site and in situ reversal of exhaustion (7). Accumulation of tumor Ag–specific CD4 T cells at tumor sites indicates that they play effector functions through, for instance, IFN-γ secretion (4). Alspach and colleagues showed that the presence of tumor Ag–specific cells, specifically among CD4 TILs, was necessary for tumor regression after immunotherapy by PD-1/PD-L1 axis blockade in a mouse model (6), suggesting that PD-1 blockade directly targets PD-1+ CD4 TILs. Our results show that PD-1 blockade, specifically on CD4 TILs, increased their helper functions as evidenced by enhanced DC maturation, leading to increased CD86 expression and IL-12 secretion. In the NY-ESO-1 model, we showed that PD-1 blockade on CD4 TILs led to enhanced proliferation of autologous NY-ESO-1–specific CD8 T cells supporting a major role for CD4 help in CD8 T cell proliferation in situ. This is in agreement with the requirement for a DC and CD8 T cell crosstalk and IL-12 and IFN-γ secretion for responsiveness to immunotherapy (28). Results obtained in the NY-ESO-1 model, whereby specific CD4 T cells are PD-1hiCD39+, show that anti–PD-1 can restore helper functions of this terminally exhausted population.



the point being we do have an active t cell which is showing efficacy which we are now testing in its real setting, the interactive nature of the immune system can be now played to our advantage .....

we have T cells working in Ovarian

PD-1 alone could only do that briefly in a very small number

we have done it WITHOUT PD-1 ... Lindy was correct

' Pre-clinical studies have shown unprecedented anti-tumour effects can be delivered without requiring checkpoint inhibition '

now we look to improve on that ........ but i can't look to other third party research papers

why

we are the first !!

[marcusl2] 16/7/2023 21:47

The market fell sharply on the 12th: it was unclear at the time of writing whether this was related to selling from management option exercise- whilst CEO Lindy Durrant has had options expiring in July extended, one former director is facing an expiry.

[miavoce] 16/7/2023 18:27

wigwammer - from crumbs on the other site.

Confusion Over

The non Ovarian full-dose patients .. of which there are now 8

If you go off the ASCO poster there were only 4 fully dosed patients by then and of those only Trish was evaluated meaning the others had only just recently joined the trial this is why I think people who think only 2 patients Trish and the TNBC with longterm stable... Are left on the trial are probably wrong and that is just because they do not have evaluable data on at least 4 of the others... Which I would expect will make the CIMT AACR presentation...But why Scancell cannot make such things clear ... well we have been through that already ! ... Also I would be very very surprised if Ovarian somehow had the best modi 1 mono result considering it is probably immunologically the hardest target and Head and Neck has already seen tumor destruction but again that is just my take

[bermudashorts] 16/7/2023 16:20

wigwammer - yes that's how it reads

chilltime - I don't think anyone thinks the ovarian results are bad but they are disappointing as far as timelines are concerned and these 2 quotes from Scancell probably best explain why.

This from 2019, some 7 years into preclinical research:-

' Pre-clinical studies have shown unprecedented anti-tumour effects can be delivered without requiring checkpoint inhibition '


This from the RNS last week:-

'we believe the true value of our vaccine is probably in combination with checkpoint inhibitors'


The whole point of the trial is not only safety and early efficacy, but also to identify the optimum setting for Modi-1. The positive take from this is that the study is doing exactly what it was designed to do thereby preventing Scancell from wasting huge amounts of cash by developing Modi-1 in sub optimal settings. The fact that it's not the setting we were hoping for doesn't mean that there isn't still great potential, nevertheless it does extend the timelines.

[wigwammer] 16/7/2023 14:24

Rereading, it's ambiguous. But it shouldn't be. Does this mean only 2 of the 8 remain on trial? What about the others? .. Dunno... "In the other monotherapy cancer cohorts, a total of eight patients have received full dose Modi-1 -- One TNBC patient remains on trial with stable disease beyond 8 weeks -- One head and neck patient achieved a partial response and remains on study at week 37"

[wigwammer] 16/7/2023 14:17

Chilltime - three quarters of the people who started the trial over the last 11 months are no longer taking moditope. That includes three quarters of the people suffering from cancer outside ovarian. Please think about that. Perhaps the trial news is now priced in, but I feel a material downward revision of the price is justified by that update... imo

[chilltime] 16/7/2023 09:06

The Modi CPI comment by Lindy.

She would be banging her head against the wall if she read some posts.

Ovarian

It’s the toughest one to defeat, easy to recruit as nothing works, CPIs don’t exist there.

Modi however has impacted 44% of them, 7 of 16 patients, however she says it’s not curing them. They believe the patients would benefit from a Modi/CPI combo.

However you have to show benefit from such combos.

IE show Modi works, then show modi plus a CPI shows an improvement v modi alone.

She clearly makes that point, you have to show separate results to show that the addition is of benefit, be it modi to a CPI or a CPI to modi.

So they will continue with the other indications, Head and Neck etc, the basket case studies, Head and neck doing well but clearly those indications are not substantially recruited.

Was it 21 last news? 16 of those were Ovarian it seems.

So of CPIs assist Modi in the other indications they can then return to ovarian to test the combo.

Ovarian was always seen as the tough one and we are talking the toughest of the tough as Scancell Modi is dealing with patients where typically nothing else works.

Have a listen to the video.

Modi alone is to check of modi works, it is working, then it moves along to the combo which is the original plan.

Does modi impact patients where CPIs don’t

Trish, she has done the lot, nothing left, she was on Keytruda which slowed the tumour growth, she was told to sort her will.

So she switched to Modi and her tumour reduced by 55% (so far).

So modi works as shown there, and in trial terms has worked on 44% of ovarian patients.

Over the coming months modi will be given to 16 or more patients in each category. Somewhere in the mix I read 17 in each.

I take that to avoid 4 responders, IE 5 responding takes it over the 25% trigger.

[chilltime] 16/7/2023 08:47

I read various posts on here which had me confused (comments about the Lindy interview)

Comments like

Modify doesn’t work on it’s own, needs CPIs, Lindy downbeat, disappointed.

I just listened to the interview.

What a load codswallop (posts) which embellishes the point of the need to do your own reading and listening.

First up, the last part of the interview which sticks an axe through the nonsense.

Funding money

No they don’t need any, unless….

Words stating

If the data CONTINUES to be exciting, they may progress to registration trials earlier.

So the data so far is exciting, which matches the background noise.

How anyone perceived Lindy to be disappointed in that must be the extreme pessimistic type.

[willoicc] 16/7/2023 07:57

It always amuses me when bashers talk to each other like they are old friends.

[panama7] 15/7/2023 17:53

I am afraid all of you Ostrich's are burying your heads in the sand. You are not looking at what is happening to the Vax industry as a whole and how that may impact Scancell. For example 23,848 patients signed up for the AZ Covid trial but the published results only included 11,636, what happened to the other 12,000. It is reports like this getting into the public domain that will turn people off taking vaccines.

[2tyke] 15/7/2023 13:48

Yes, as wetookpelham now concedes, the bulls premise on share price was completely wrong !
Not surprisingly, some are now coming to recognize that techniques that 'focus' on share price like technical analysis are far superior. I'll help you guys some more.
The stock price has been falling for many months throughout all the encouraging overtures from the company.
The overtures were completely ignored by traders, because the share price was dropping. Only the die-hard bulls payed any attention. We then got the usual capitulation in price as bull after bull threw in the towel in panic. As I said would happen.

The correct way to think about the share price from here is to ask the 'pertinent question'
The pertinent question is NOT..'is moditope good enough to be a commercial treatment by itself or in combo.'
Nobody can answer this anyway as the data hasn't been produced.
The pertinent question you should be asking is this...................
.......................
' When everyone that 'wants to ' has sold....who's left to sell ?
........................................
When you answer that question
you should come to the conclusion that slowly but surely new bulls will start taking up positions and the tide will gradually turn building into a new bullish cycle. By the time the company data is available, price should be rising, not falling, and traders behaviour will be different.
All about human behaviour.

[miavoce] 15/7/2023 13:05

I think a major part of the psychology problem here is that patient 1, Trish, had such a great response that the failure to maintain this response level across other patients has has created the feeling that Modi1 has somehow failed.

In reality the achievement of Modi1 in late stage otherwise untreatable cancers is indeed very encouraging, and should the combination of CI and Modi1 be better than CI alone then Modi1 could well turn out to be a blockbuster.

I believe Lindy can see which which way this is going and she seems positive/upbeat about the Mod1+CI combination - maybe what she has seen from the SCIB1+CI has given her confidence....

[ruckrover] 15/7/2023 12:57

Wiggly, I apologise for refining my view in the light of new information. 2-3 pound still is possible. As miavoce points out, maybe not all the funding will be from new shares issued and maybe the issue price will be higher than 10p. I am open to all possibilities from 0p to 400p. I perhaps was extremely pleased when we had the Trish news but the latest information suggest MODI1 may not be the blockbuster we hoped. Of course, further information could change all that. This isn't quite the "slam-dunk" some would have you believe.

[wigwammer] 15/7/2023 12:43

Hmm.. The £2-3 target you gave was post dilutions, ruck... "Big buys", "big positions", "10 baggers" etc you said... I don't think you should moralise about the behaviour of others foo loudly .. ATB

[tosh123] 15/7/2023 12:06

Hey Knowlesi,
great to see you post.
Unfortunately the company remains some way short of it's ultimate goals.

Contrary to what the village idiot has been spouting for the last 11 years, this is not a slam dunk, and remains very much a high risk investment.

Investors should take the opportunity to reduce their exposure, as and when they can.

Obviously I really hope that we get something to a commercial stage sometime soon, however, I think we're still a few years short of that, so more patience will be required.

I wish you well my friend.

[knowlesi] 15/7/2023 11:37

Tosh - hope you are well. And yes single digits was all too predictable. Covidity saved the share price 2 years - we never fixed the fundamental weakness and hence here we come again. Given Modi1 is a combination treatment at best - I'll be retiring the bazooka

[miavoce] 15/7/2023 11:30

Hi Ruck

if they ultimately need another £100m I very much doubt that it will come entirely through share issues at 10p as that would imply that no significant income or share price appreciation (through positive results and deals) is being created along the way. Whilst I agree that a further fundraise may be needed I also also expect that there will be good income from current and future deals which will contribute a decent portion of the funds needed, and share price appreciation from results / deals will allow for fundraises at hopefully well above 10p

[ruckrover] 15/7/2023 10:40

wiggy,

"But didn’t you have a £2-3 forecast at one point?"

I probably did, yes. There is no doubt that the mcap of Scancell is worth many times what it is now but you need to take into account the cost of getting there. This will invariably mean dilution - it happens in a lot of small bios.

So let's say SCLP will eventually be worth an Mcap of GBP 2 billion. Assuming it will take at least another GBP 100M to get there, there will need to be another 1 billion shares issued (assuming 10p/share). That will give an share price of 1 pound.

You are missing the point somewhat. I have taken a realistic view (as have a few others). I know it is a risky investment and I had come to terms that it could come to nothing. I was mentally prepared for this outcome BEFORE I invested.

My post was about the mental anguish caused by over-optimistic claims bordering on hysteria in spite of the obvious facts. Yes, I have bought recently at 18p so what? Why shouldn't I if I think this is going to 60p? Am I anxious? No, the share price will recover. We were down to 3p not that long ago. Was I stressed then - no, so I'm not going to be stressed now.

It is odd that the posters who call it the most accurately are the ones most vilified if it doesn't fit the uber-positive agenda.

[panama7] 15/7/2023 09:31

Whatever the future for Scancell they better hurry up. If Trump or RFK Jr get into the White House it is game over for the Pharmaceutical industrial complex and particularly those involved with the jabs. Before Trump was elected he asked RFK if he would be interested in doing an investigation into vaccines. Shortly after when Gates got wind Pfizer donated 1m to Trump's campaign and the investigation was carried out by a Pfizer scientist and was whitewashed. Trump won't make the same mistake again and RFK has already stated that he will set up an investigation committee into the long term effects of Vaccines and why the U.S has gone from being one of the healthiest populations in the World to now being down in 70th place. Why has there been a massive increase in Autism and ADHD in the last 40 years since 1986 when they changed the Vaccine act and allowed Pharma not to be liable for any injuries.

[wigwammer] 15/7/2023 08:32

Hate to rain on the parade, ruck. But didn't you have a £2-3 forecast at one point? A small 10+ bagger from the price at the time. And am sure you used to talk about your big buys and massive overweight position when the shares were in the 20's. So really mr rampety ramp when it suited your book.... We all know ivy bought at 22p - no surprise there... So not exactly the high priests of caution and restraint, rather a shameful exhibition of hypocrisy... ATB

[tosh123] 15/7/2023 07:24

and there we have it !!! Back into single digits.

[ruckrover] 15/7/2023 07:01

Morning Ivy, Yes, those aiming vitriolic attacks on those pointing out the realities or merely expressing an opinion are equally culpable.

[ivyspivey] 15/7/2023 05:34

Nice post Ruck and following on from it if the “ unrealistic SP” predictors had just reined in some of their more speculative forecasts we may have had a lot more common ground and a much nicer BB.
The fallacy that has existed imo is the view that many people like myself,yourself and quite a few others are actually quite bullish about the Science here and if course want SCLP to do very weell.
But as we did not subscribe to the All in No Risk multiple £ reward mantra we have been attacked not by rationale argument but accusations of being traders (as if that is in some way bad or in fact just because we have sold shares in the past which in the rampers eyes is OK for them but not for others.
Anyway moving on I do believe the current share price in no way reflects the potential here and yes there is some risk as we saw from the last news but there were positives and moving forward there are plenty of inflection points.
The last RNS although I thought overall positive did contain a couple of bits of realism that I think ultimately will prove beneficial to adjust the level of expectation here though this period of adjustment has been painful.
Claims of we are the next Bion Tech wete and always have been o sense but we do have again imo 2 platforms which we are now focusing on that could make a real contribution in the battle against cancer plus the Glycan deal potential which could prove immensely lucrative in the future.
Anyway enough of my thoughts but sone admission of responsibility from those posters that sold the promised land version of the future rather than a more realistic so,I’d progress based on actual news would be a good first step in healing some of the obvious pain that Ruck refers to,