Savills Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 01/11/2007 10:27

Chart bottoming imo guys - take a look.

These are going to breakout to the upside at some point soon and I expect 20% on the price in quicktime.

If you miss it try chasing HUM imo, another one about to bottom I suspect.

Aragedon being factored in now and the reality is just mild slowing.

CR

[dasv] 31/10/2007 12:26

certainly a property crash is now priced into many property stocks. I don't feel any urge to dive in at the moment however.

[cockneyrebel] 31/10/2007 11:38

On the way up today - chart looks like it's bottoming imo.

Interesting that Nationwide reckon house-prices rose in October by 1.1%.

Taylor Wimpey seem to think they will be 5% down on last year - not the disaster that these builder share prices are factoring in I'd have thought. Whole sector bottoming perhaps.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 30/10/2007 08:11

HUM - warned today but if you read what they say it was only Sep and October bounced back - probably why SVS is down but my prove a nice buying opportunity imo

CR

[typo56] 30/10/2007 08:10

Humberts (HUM) warning today won't help

[handycam] 19/10/2007 09:04

20% of the company changed hands at 623 just three and a half months ago.

[slogsweep] 19/10/2007 08:45

STILL FALLING convinced this is over sold and will recover _ but thats the way to loose you shirt

[dasv] 17/10/2007 10:11

hi mike24, buy to let is a harpooned whale in its final death throws if you ask me. HIPS are already a disaster. Hotels in Chinese resorts are absolutely booming though - just spoke to a mate at Investec who is sorting out finance for a 6 star on one of the few beach resorts in China. Demand is outrageous - western prices to stay there, Asian running costs. Great profit margins. I have a small investment in First State's Asian Property fund - it's doing OK, not spectacular.

Yep - I've seen the 5 year chart - it's been quite a ride. As I said before, SVS are diversified, they have exposure to Asia, Europe and once again the US. Residential in the UK will no doubt drag down their revenues but the company will ride this out because of their strategy, management and connections at the top end of commercial. Not saying this is a screaming buy by any means, but it's worth keeping an eye on IMHO.

[mike24] 17/10/2007 09:28

looks like a bottom das?, the time to catch the bottom is
12 months after the first rate cut, see jan 07 post
why did'nt they do a ryanair full page ad, for a few k
grabber gordons HIPS will be a disaster,the last area in
prop invest, is hotels, barc's 500k no proof of income
btl mortgage as long as deposit is min 25% & just 5% surplus
over repayments, great for the rental market
svs 5yr chart?
dyor

[typo56] 17/10/2007 08:07

Falling on LSL warning this morning.

[dasv] 02/10/2007 10:23

Looks like bottom was a few days ago. This is some concerted buying we are seeing today. 11.6% up on a £545m market cap property company in a coupe of hours.

Suspect record DOW last night has something to do with. Or maybe its just shorts closing?

[slogsweep] 27/9/2007 08:26

Just topped up 2k and suddenly a load of buys come in maybe I'm not the only one who thinks the,re cheap sub £4

[dasv] 26/9/2007 12:38

Darias - you were right about not much likelihood of capital appreciation back in the spring. Hat off to you sir.

[darias] 26/9/2007 11:31

Yewtrees

The company share price has risen 4 times since 2001 and some 30% of the stock was put into the market around 6 months ago. (Havent checked how long)

At less than £4 the share does seem cheap but I can still see it falling to less than £3. I may look to buy in at £3:50. Not in expectation of a large capital gain but as a steady company worth a long term hold.

[dasv] 26/9/2007 10:54

yewtrees - 18 Sep'07 - 16:24 - 568 of 570

Savills is being tarred with the same brush as the rest of the sector.

The figures were actually good and the geographic spread of the business together with its relative diversification compared to straight-ahead estate agents and house builders gives the business the strength to ride out a property slow down.

The market is acting like a property crash is in the bag - and although IMHO a correction is very likely due to affordability issues and a speculative bubble in buy-to-let having emerged, it will not be enough to damage Savills' figures markedly. Buy and hold and sit on them for 5 years. That's what I'm doing (though I have significantly reduced my holding since April and am mainly in oil, resources, technology and infrastructure... No financials - only one I like is STAN).

[mike24] 26/9/2007 07:59

frank knight have got some balls putting witanhurst
sold in june 07 back on the market at double the price,
you need to "flip it" by 10% just to get yer dosh back
behind the mailbox, flats in brum dropping by 20%

[yewtrees] 18/9/2007 16:24

Can't understand why the share price is so low, Savills website is full of under offer properties plus their commercial business is still busy.

[dasv] 14/9/2007 10:42

mike24 - I agree about Greenspan. He was originally a failed clarinet player, who became one of the most unsuccessful pension fund managers of his generation. Then for some reason everyone hailed him as a genius at the helm of the Fed. The property boom in the US and the UK is Engineered. It was the only way of sustaining GDP growth - by encouraging consumption. Peter Schiff's book "Crash Proof" is good on this subject IMHO. I have a SIPP for my pension.

[dasv] 12/9/2007 12:09

I disagree. The house price boomed was engineered deliberately to encourage consumer spending. GDP includes consumption as well as production. E.g. Hurricane Katrina increased the GDP of the US by forcing the government to spend on the clean-up operation (eventually).

If GDP rises, the central bankers and politicians get a pat on the back. There is a price to pay however. For every binge there is a hangover.

I doubt we will see interest rates drop for a while.

The shortage of property is a result of the buy-to-let boom and the increasing trend for people to live apart. People leave home earlier, relationships are more short-lived, everybody expects a high standard of living where they have their own property, rented or especially owned.

The fact that rental yields have not kept pace with house price growth indicates that there is sufficient property supply. The price increase is a function of liquidity: the easier it is to borrow money, the more people are prepared to pay.

I note SVS is bouncing today a little. At these levels with a long term view its probably a reasonable investment.

[mike24] 12/9/2007 09:20

Roger Bootle says....the house price boom has brought misery
to thousands and represents a failure of goverment policy
in the "shortage" of props being built

the failure has been with the press identifying the
BoE's balls up in adjusting rates between 02 and 05,
the goverments failure is the
lack of control on immigration,
the encouragement of property
being put into pensions at the expence of FTB's
the list goes on, nothing to do with a "shortage"

had mr bootle come to the morton in march a week ago he would have
seen Frank Knight doing brisk business bringing ever more wealth
into UK which in turn is helping us avoid the sharp downturn
facing the US the turnover of wealth as inheritance being
passed on, will do a lot to keep the economy afloat

what else can you invest in? where your money does'nt evaporate
as the zimbabwe currency z$30k= 1us$ next wk it will be z$100k= 1us$
roger tis a no-brainer to hedge inflation which in real terms is 10% per yr
barc lifetime tracker no fees interest only BR+0.17
dyor

[slogsweep] 12/9/2007 09:14

All the talk now is that interest rates have peaked and may soon fall sharply. If this happens then SVS should benefit. I live in Scotland and Savills' boards have started sprouting all over the place especially in wealthy Perthshire. They have even offered to sell my house! On a 12 year chart they are smack on the trend of +24% pa though on a 4 year view the trend is well broken. I'm in at the equivalent of

[dasv] 11/9/2007 09:21

Slogsweep - It could be well timed in a way. US residential property has already taken a huge hit - perhaps Savills got Granite for a bargain price.

The interims look impressive to me considering the prevailing sentiment regarding property and liquidity.

But the use of the phrase "cautiously optimistic" reflects the uncertainty Savills has about achieving its expected full year figures.

To offset that, they have increased their dividend: "The increase reflects our
continued confidence in the performance of the business"

I ask myself, if they have continued confidence, then why use the phrase "cautiously optimistic"?



"* Group revenue for the six months was up 35% at £284.2m (2006: £211.1m).
* Group profit before tax increased 7% to £33.2m (2006: £31.0m).
* Underlying Group profit before tax* increased 27% to £32.5m (2006: £25.6m).
* Basic earnings per share increased 3% to 17.8p (2006: 17.2p).
* Adjusted underlying basic earnings per share* increased 25% to 17.4p
(2006: 13.9p).
* Interim dividend increased 20% to 6.0p (2006: 5.0p)."

My concern is next year:- it's the outlook that is driving down the property and financial sectors not past figures.

On the other hand as I said about 5 months ago on this thread, I'll believe in the impact of high interest rates on revenues at Savills only when I see it. So far we haven't seen it.

[slogsweep] 11/9/2007 08:28

Results OK to me. Expansion to US looks ill timed but not justifing this price happy to top up at these levels