Savills Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 18/8/2008 17:46

hmmm, possibly. I'm sure you could make the same argument for housebuilders tho. BVS hit 250p, been back to 500p - now 427p.

BDEV, hit 50p, now 129p

Taylor Wimpey, hit 30p, been back to 60p, now 47p. Both these two look on the road to going bust but still put in very good bounces.

Shares will react 6-9 months before you get tangible evidence of a bottoming in the housing market.

The 3 month Lbor fix today was 5.7625%, in June it was 5.95%, so it's moving in the right direction.

HBOS and other lenders have been cutting rates.

These are all signs that the market will bottom sooner than many think imo. Lots of residential estate agents going out of business - if a Birmingham agent goes out of business that helps just two types of agent, another Birmingham Agen who has less competition and every National Agent. Savills are one of the few Nationals.


If Builder stocks have bounced so much it's because the market was oversold and if Savills have a good proportion of residential then they must follow imo.

LAND, BLND, BXTN, DJAN, SHB - all look to have put in bottoms recently.


You won't know these stocks have bottomed until it's happened - other sectors might give a good guide tho. My bet is mid July was a bottom for SVS.

CR

[dasv] 18/8/2008 13:31

I used to be very bullish on SVS - it was my biggest single stock holding from 2003 onwards. But now I don't see the point in taking a risk on it. I think further contraction is on the cards. The property industry thrives on credit availability and I think defaults on corporate loans will impact on Credit Default Swaps in banking, and also that a lot of banks are not marking their CDO's to market yet - unlike Merrill Lynch who is coming clean. I also think its worth considering the forecasts for UK and developed world growth for the next 2-3 years which are not bullish in the slightest. There will be a bottom on the share price of course, but I doubt if its now. Sorry to be negative.

[johnrxx99] 18/8/2008 13:25

SVS strongly residential. DTZ commercial. Both down from 800p. I know my choice and it's not SVS yet

[cockneyrebel] 18/8/2008 12:54

Time to buy Savills imo.

UK Housebuilders all look as if they have bottomed, some are up 100%+ from their lows. Seeing a lot of the property co's are also looking like putting in a bottom it makes no sense that SCS are still down here imo. In the 'fake bounce' back in Jan these were one of the fastest stronges stoks to ralyy - I think that will happen again soon.

I'm working my way in after nearly catching the bottom on BVS.

CR

[badtime] 08/8/2008 21:52

Lol Nick....time to short svs was beginning of year :)

[nickcduk] 08/8/2008 10:31

I think the doom and gloom about UK property market is overdone some what. I imagine conditions will deteriorate in the months ahead but finance is becoming more available again. Banks have been aggressively cutting the rates on offer. If inflation tapers off and the economy continues to slow as it is then I would imagine interest rates will be much lower. House builders are slashing the number of new houses they are building. These factors will eventually lead to a revival in the property market. Sometime later on in the year I imagine the market will begin to stabilise and recover.

Looking to short SVS but wary that as one of the stronger players it will gain market share from those that go bust. That will help soften the impact of a collapsing market.

[lbo] 06/8/2008 10:18

A purge looms for European property brokers

[dasv] 05/8/2008 14:51

Repossessions rise 40% as mortgage arrears worsen


I think this is shorts closing - a suckers rally.

[lbo] 05/8/2008 14:24

UK housing slides

[lbo] 01/8/2008 12:21

Residential property problems hit profits at Colliers

[lbo] 18/7/2008 11:20

UK estate agents


Walking down an average town centre high street in the UK, it seems like every second window is an estate agency. But the industry is showing severe signs of strain. Not just branches, but whole businesses are closing down, while shares in the few listed estate agents like Savills, or Rightmove, the property website, have plummeted.

This is due less to falling house prices than to the sharp decline in transactions, the backbone of an agency's business model. In the first half, Savills says transaction volumes in London nearly halved year-on-year, while the Council for Mortgage Lenders predicts transactions in 2008 will be more than a third lower than in 2007. So far, according to the National Association of Estate Agents, the most obviously affected are newer industry entrants – which often have very narrow profit margins thanks to the lower fees they charge – and corporate chains which are closing branches

[pictureframe] 14/7/2008 12:02

2003 it looks like it reached 60p - this market is much worse than then.

[deadly] 08/7/2008 11:19

Of course the market may send them down further but where is the floor? SVS have no net debt so will not suffer from that like some other companies. Profits will recover in time.

[deadly] 08/7/2008 10:20

Some sense seems to be returning to the share price, but the state of the markets and their brutal effect on SP's of good companies like this must put off many investors for years to come.

[adyfc] 08/7/2008 10:17

I wouldn,t go near this, in this market anything connected to property is going down big time.

[dasv] 08/7/2008 09:23

However as I have argued before, it is a well diversified, well connected and relatively conservatively managed business. The property market will eventually recover, but nobody knows when. Potentially worth gradually accumulating over time.

"Savills says H1 volumes dip significantly in UK, US commercial, residential ops




LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Savills Plc. said trading in its UK and U.S.
commercial capital markets businesses and UK residential and mortgage broking
businesses have continued to deteriorate with volumes down significantly over
last year.
The international property services company said it expects the overall
outcome to be weighted towards the second half, but said trading conditions for
its transactional businesses in many markets makes predictions of full year
performance very difficult.
Conditions in Europe have deteriorated as the impact of the credit squeeze
is increasingly felt but the company said the very top end of prime UK
residential market was proving to be "relatively immune" to the downturn.
However, the Savills said its transaction businesses in Asia continues to
trade well in increasingly challenging markets."

[dasv] 08/7/2008 09:20

Not invested here. Right now it's a falling knife, I would have assumed support around 200p but today has surprised even me. Persimmon announces redundancies and sales down 30%. SVS surely cannot get earnings growth in this climate and must be priced for earnings contraction - which it is: a trailing PE of 4.73?

[deadly] 08/7/2008 09:17

Undoubtably SVS offers even better long term value at today's price, but how long the credit crunch will last is the question for the short term.

[troutfish] 26/6/2008 09:05

Analysts at Oriel, ABN Amro, Arbuthnot, Numis and Charles Stanley are currently rating Savill's a "buy".

ABN Amro and Numis expect Savill's to raise the 2008 dividend/share to 18.5p or 21p respectively.


Savills:

2004 Pretax Profit £58.3m...EPS 36.4p...Dividend/share 9.3p
2005 Pretax Profit £58.6m...EPS 45.5p...Dividend/share 12p
2006 Pretax Profit £84.4m...EPS 46.3p...Dividend/share 16p
2007 Pretax Profit £85.9m...EPS 45.5p...Dividend/share 18p

I think that with a fall in UK property sales revenues but a strong consultancy division and Far East buisiness, plus the £23m cash profit from the Infinergy sale earlier this year adding £17m to the 2008 accounts (plus £6m to the 2009 accounts) and good existing cash on the balance sheet (£78m at end 2007) that 2008 could indeed see a rise in Savill's dividend.

[troutfish] 25/6/2008 12:12

The cash from the sale of Savills 50% share in Infinergy earlier this month, stated by Savills in the press release to add another £17m to their profits for 2008, and £6m for 2009 (total £23m) now makes Savills look even better value than when Investor's Chronicle said they were "Good Value" at 353p in March.

----------------------------

INVESTOR'S CHRONICLE
14th March 2008
(Page 95)

IC View

"Savill's shares have lost half their value in the past 12 months, but the firm's diversity means it s well placed to weather the crunch, so we retain our good value rating".

"Good value: 353p"

[badtime] 12/6/2008 22:49

Agreed deadly...i dont think tuffbets comments above allow for some astute management