Savills Share Discussion Threads

[darias] 02/5/2007 11:56

Phillis

I am not lying back and enjoying as we sold on 50%+ increase in value. I cant see any significant increase in value in the next 18 months or so but I could be wrong.

These have been good to us and I wish all holders every success but hell a doubling of price over 12 months and almost 400% increase in around 2 years the bubble has to burst somewhere doesn't it?

You have suggested that I am wrong and the shares are "scattered around". Please look at the definition of a book in DASV's link and you will see that a "book" consists of shares specifically for TRADING. Now where has that 22m shares been traded.

Even today they are relatively small trades except for 3 trades amounting to around 1m which is roughly 5% if the 20m - so only another 19.5m to 21.5m to go.

The only way this price is sustainable is through significant increase in dividends but hell I've been wrong before.

[dasv] 02/5/2007 09:40

Darias, Massive volume traded today - £6.5m and from what I can see with the rather rudimentary tools afforded to me by selftrade ;) they are mostly buys.

Phillis - you can't scatter 20+m shares just like that (as in Tommy Cooper 'jus-like-that') :)

I was initially sceptical of Darias' point, but to disagree one must account for what happened to Trammell Crow's stake when it was put on the market in January.

Savills didn't hold the shares, Trammell Crow no longer did and they were for sale. Who bought them? Savills could only buy back a small percentage of those shares issued.

Today's massive buying volume is very encouraging and is even big enough to soak up some of the overhang. But I await your account of who bought the 20+ million shares if it wasn't the market makers or some traders.

[phillis] 02/5/2007 07:11

A bookbuild operation is what it says.
Shares are scattered around.
You basic premise - no announcement therefore MMs have got the stock - is absurd
Just lie back and enjoy and stop looking for conspiracies

[darias] 02/5/2007 06:47

So what are you suggesting Phillis?

If you have a better idea then please tell me.

But, please, before you post again find out where 22 million shares went as there has been no notification of who bought Trammell Crow's stake except a "bookbuild" operation. I cant be bothered to check Savill's share register and, it seems, neither can dasv. Perhaps you can spare the time.

Why shouldn't traders (note not mms) take on the shareholding. It only needs 8 or so of them and they bought their stake at £6:23 and have been selling for at least 4 months at well over that price. I dont believe that the price will fall much below £6:50 over the next year or so and, if divi increases, may well get to £7+. representing a profit of around 15% at least and with regular dividends.

Before you reply take a look at the share price movement around June 2001 following the mildest of profit warnings. (We first bought following that warning). Look at the accounts later that year and find the hidden value in an estate in Ireland that year. It was really like taking candy from a baby. The people running this company are very cute people.

[phillis] 01/5/2007 11:30

In the bookbuild if nobody exceeds 3% then no notification is necessary.
Are you seriously suggesting that MMs laid out real cash and took all these on to their books?

[darias] 27/4/2007 17:17

Well done dasv

Yes the shares were placed "as a bookbuild". There has been no announcement of any institutional shareholder taking up the "bookbuild" we must assume, therefore, that they have been placed with various market makers. It is this which has kept the shareprice trading in a range since January.

It is my view that the price will not drop much below £6:23 nor go over £7 but, hell I've been wrong before. The company is so good that even at these prices it represents good value but will not rocket ahead.

The 1:2 split last year means that the price is equivalent to £13 compared to early 2006. Not bad considering that they came to market in 1993 and did not break a £1 until 1999/2000

If the company performs as well as it has done there should be an eps increase combined with a dividend increase then the shares may be worth buying for the dividend and institutions will again look to pick up. The other alternative is that somebody comes in with a t/over bid and picks up the 22m at around £6:50p. It is my view that Trammel Crow wanted to place a bid when they picked up their 12% in 2005 increasing to 19%. The shares in Savilles are fairly tightly held so TC could not mount a bid and the purchases depressed their own share price which left them exposed to a bid themselves.

All of the above is pure speculation on my part obviously

[dasv] 27/4/2007 16:12

Clearly, their reply does not answer point 2,3, and 4 of my email.

If 21 million shares were dumped on the market between the 11th and 17th of January and the total volume of shares traded in savills is say, 500k a day - that's buys AND sells. Then the only way the overhang would be cleared in a few months would be by buys outweighing sells at an absolutely huge ratio.

I suspect that this is, as you say, putting a dampener on the savills share price

What we should see therefore is that as eps increases, the share price does not.

Evidence of the overhang would be demonstrable by a lowering of the p/e ratio from pre-Jan to current levels.

The next announcement will be 11 September, detailing figures until June 30.

It will be interesting to see the impact of the overhang on the p/e.

Thanks for your help in alerting me to the overhang phenomenon, Darias. Fortunately thanks to the MM's no doubt trickling the overhang out slowly, the share price has not been flattened, merely subdued.

Now, to find a stock capable of 800% growth in 4 years which is also pretty defensive...

[dasv] 27/4/2007 15:17

my email to them:-

Dear Ruth Michelson-Carr,

I am a share holder in Savills with 2381 shares. I understand from reading various RNS's and the Savills Annual report, that Savills re-purchased 3.5m shares following CBRE's placing:-

"Following the placing of Savills shares on 11 January 2007 by CBRE upon its
acquisition of Trammell Crow Company we re-purchased 3.5m shares for
cancellation. The total number of ordinary shares in issue at 31 December 2006
was 135.1m (2005 - 133m)."


I don't have the exact figures but I believe Trammel Crow had a 19% share of the company - I am estimating this is around 25 million shares.

My questions are:

1. Is there, therefore, an overhang of 21 million shares which must be bought on the open market by investors other than Savills?

2. Were these shares dumped on the market in one go or were they "trickled" out to prevent a drop in the share price value?

3. If 2. is true, Does the market maker for Savills hold these 21 million shares and is responsible for the "trickling"?

4. If 2. is true, has the overhang been disposed of now, and if not, how long do you estimate it will take for the overhang to be disposed of?

yours sincerely

[dasv] 27/4/2007 15:16

Hi Darias,

This from someone acting on SVS's company secretary's behalf:-


__________
Thank you for your email which I am answering in Ruth's absence from the office.

I can confirm that there is no overhang of 21 million shares as CBRE placed the whole of Trammel Crow's holding in January 2007. They released an announcement on 11th January 2007 confirming the placement would be completed by the 17th January 2007.

I hope this sufficiently answers your question but should you require more information please let me know.

Best regards

Richard Ray

_______________________________

Richard Ray

Acting Company Secretary

Savills plc

Lansdowne House, 4th Floor East, 57 Berkeley Square, London W1K 6ER

Ph: [phone]

Email: [mailto:[e-mail]]

Website: www.savills.com

[darias] 27/4/2007 12:59

Exactly

The annual report reiterates that there are 135m shares in circulation and Trammel Crow sold 19% of those in a "bookbuild" operation.

"LONDON (AFX) - CB Richard Ellis Group Inc said it has made the expected sale
of its 19 pct stake in Savills for 623 pence a share - with net pretax proceeds
from the disposal of around 311 mln usd.
CBRE acquired the stake in the UK-based property adviser through its takover
of US rival Trammel Crow last year and announced at the time of the buy it
planned to sell it.
The disposition was effected through the sale of 25.9 mln Savills shares by
way of a bookbuild offering.
Completion of the transaction is expected to occur on January 17.
CBRE said it would use the proceeds to reduce the amount of debt incurred to
finance the Trammell Crow acquisition."

Using the web link that you directed me to you will find the definition of a "book" as a "A banker or trader's position". Now you tell me where 22.4m shares have been "traded" since the sale by Trammel Crow in January. The mms know where the shares are and whenever they want a few they just call for them. Now the above seems to me to be a good anecdote for the theory of "overhang" dont you think.

The company is sound but now, imv, is not the time to buy.

[darias] 24/4/2007 21:15

RNS Number:3982P
Savills PLC
11 January 2007

11 January 2007

Savills plc
Purchase of own shares

Savills plc announces that it has today purchased 3,500,000 ordinary shares,
representing 2.59% of the issued share capital, at a price of 623p for
cancellation through from Hoare Govett's affiliate, ABN AMRO Bank N.V., London
Branch. These shares were purchased in today's placing of stock held by CB
Richard Ellis Group, Inc. (CBRE).

Following the purchase, Savills total issued share capital is 131,626,684
shares.

[darias] 24/4/2007 21:13

Savills bought back 2.5% of the stock.

Trammel Crow had 19%!

"LONDON (AFX) - Savills PLC confirmed press reports that it may consider
buying back a tranche of its shares for cancellation if CB Richard Ellis Group
Inc puts it 19.2 pct stake in the company up for sale.
Savills would only be allowed to buy back up to 4.9 pct of the shares
because CBRE is a related party as defined by the UK Listing Rules.
CBRE acquired the stake in the UK-based property adviser through its
takeover of US rival Trammel Crow last year, and announced at the time it would
sell the Savills stake."

Now you read the news releases. Be prepared to hold for a very long time before you see any real capital appreciation.

[dasv] 24/4/2007 20:17

My understanding, according to savills' annual report is the overhang was bought back by the company.

Read the report again, more than doubled by stake.

[dasv] 17/4/2007 09:02

I have taken profit twice too - with substantial gains (over 100%). I bought back in September at 502. The share price is now 681-682. Within the restrictions of my trading ISA, this is a nice profit.

I happened to be on holiday in Belize in 2003 and got talking to a trader for Investec - I had recently taken a position with Savills, he said "shrewd move" and showered some stats on why he thought the company was a solid choice considering the economic climate at that time. I know what kind of company they are - I worked for them for a year from 2003-2004 (near Moorgate). Perhaps that's why I made the "darlings of the city" comment. Lets face it in 2001 a lot of solid companies were out of favour with the city.

[darias] 16/4/2007 21:35

Darlings of the city LOL

They weren't the darlings in 2001 when we first bought. Nor again in 2004 when we bought again. We have taken a good profit from SVS on 2 occasions. I cant see a good profit now.

As for not seeing £5 again. They were £5 only a year ago after the 1 for 2 split. Still I wish you the best of luck but there are other better prospects out there.

[dasv] 16/4/2007 21:24

£25m to unload is a lot though :P

[dasv] 16/4/2007 21:23

i would be astounded to see savills at £5 or lower. Every year they beat expectations - they are the darlings of the city from my experience.

the huge price rises seen recently in the luxury residential market in the uk together with strong commercial property revenue globally make this stock a solid play. Until I see any sign of a downturn in luxury residential and commercial property, I will hold.

[darias] 16/4/2007 21:12

Trend demonstrates a range to me. The price gets so far and then the "bookbuilder" offloads a couple of million.

I think the company is very good and would be prepared to hold for 10 years but until I see institutions taking on more stock 25m to offload demonstrates to me that the share price is going nowhere in the near term. With the 1 for 2 split the value of these shares have virtually doubled in 18 months. It will be a long time before the stock doubles again.

But I could be wrong and will certainly be looking to buy back in at around £4:50 to £5 if it gets there.

[dasv] 16/4/2007 15:26

sorry didn't mean to paste the whole lot...

the point I was trying to make was that despite the exercising of options, the share price trend is upwards. And I find that confusing in light of what you rightly say about the overhang.

Perhaps it's a time to take profit, then sit and wait and buy back in on weakness post-overhang?

[dasv] 16/4/2007 15:24

JEREMY CHARLES HELSBY

EXERCISE OF AN OPTION UNDER THE SAVILLS EXECUTIVE SHARE OPTION SCHEME AND SALE
OF RESULTANT SHARES
7) Number of shares/amount of stock acquired
46,000
8) Percentage of issued class
0.035%
9) Number of shares/amount of stock disposed
46,000


Director/PDMR Shareholding - Savills PLC





RNS Number:9241U
Savills PLC
16 April 2007



NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED PERSONS


1) NAME OF COMPANY

SAVILLS plc


2) NAME OF DIRECTOR


JEREMY CHARLES HELSBY


3) Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of
holding of the director named in 2 above or holding of that person's spouse or
children under the age of 18 or in respect of a non-beneficial interest


NOTIFICATION IN RESPECT OF THE DIRECTOR NAMED IN 2) ABOVE


4) Name of registered holder(s), and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them


DIRECTOR NAMED IN 2) ABOVE


5) Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected with
the director named in 2 above and identify the connected person (s)


N/A



6) Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions please
indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/ non discretionary



EXERCISE OF AN OPTION UNDER THE SAVILLS EXECUTIVE SHARE OPTION SCHEME AND SALE
OF RESULTANT SHARES
7) Number of shares/amount of stock acquired
46,000
8) Percentage of issued class
0.035%
9) Number of shares/amount of stock disposed
46,000
10) Percentage of issued class
0.035%
11) Class of security
ORDINARY SHARES OF 2 1/2 PENCE EACH
12) Price per share
217.75p ON EXERCISE AND 676.43p ON SALE
13) Date of transaction
16/04/07

[darias] 16/4/2007 13:17

Directors are offloading their options. They know just how big the overhang is.

[darias] 16/4/2007 11:13

Still within range since January.

Have you seen 25m shares traded? Has there been a declaration of holding over 3%. Anybody buying these are buying for yield as capital appreciation will be delayed.

"The disposition was effected through the sale of 25.9 mln Savills shares by
way of a bookbuild offering."

Unless my interpretation of "bookbuild" is wrong.

[dasv] 16/4/2007 10:08

some nice upward movement today. Perhaps overhang is over, Darias?