Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 15/1/2020 13:06

pmf, The very last interview just a few weeks ago reiterated that he wished to get drilling again close to the existing discoveries and right up the flanks so unless he is completely misleading investors then thats another matter.

The 7e deal took 2 years to see through with only 5 Niger wells drilled imo as a result of that delay/cost implications.

With the deal concluded 2 months ago and the cash inflows from same and part sale, as well as ongoing cashflow, unless he has mislead investors in those 2 most recent interviews, then they need to follow through with the CPR and drilling plans in an announcement as there can now be no excuse not to.

[ngms27] 15/1/2020 12:56

Pay will go up exponentially given he now has a larger Empire to rule over.

[plentymorefish] 15/1/2020 12:56

Zengas - it's clear that AK is building a company, using other people's money, and is entirely focused on MCAP not share price He would argue back to you that in the 7 years since listing the MCAP has grown exponentially. The 7e deal was done purely as a vanity exercise in creating that MCAP growth. With that MCAP growth has come an increasing remuneration package (which your email above illustrates perfectly) If it was share price growth he was looking for, he would have focused on drilling in Niger and things would look very different today. The clues have been there for sometime so it seems odd that only now are you losing faith? What has changed for you now as that appears to have been the company strategy since the 7e deal was announced in 2017?

[zengas] 15/1/2020 12:42

CEO Pay/bonuses
y/e 2014 paid $352k
y/e 2015 paid $671k
y/e 2016 paid $886k (of which $278k being his bonus)
Y/e 2017 paid $1.814m ($1.248m being the bonus)
y/e 2018 paid $2.1m ($1.4m bonus).
y/e 2019 to be announced
In 5 years (2014-18) including pension contributions he's earned $5.8m and if 2019 comes in similar to the previous 2 years he'll have gotten circa $8m in 6 years while the share price has been decimated. Give him another 3 years and at the contuning rate of pay and bonus's he'll have done alright with $14m+, never mind how your big shareholding is doing.

Unless he starts to get the share price up, deliver on promises and explain the dividend ambiguity then this progressive enrichment has to be nipped entirely in the bud and linked only to share price performance and every shareholder should make their feelings known about this to IR/JL/Remuneration committee and AK himself. It simply isn't good enough and has to be challenged. Going on 7 years and only 5 wells drilled in Niger - shameful.

Malcy/Vox markets - next time you have him on, these are the questions you need to ask or don't have him on at all, period !

[mount teide] 15/1/2020 12:14

HAF - three years ago i would have given him the benefit of the doubt - not today!

And certainly not when he and CFO trousered over $2.9m between them last year - mostly in 'performance' bonuses - lord knows what they got that for!

[mutley walters] 15/1/2020 11:41

Plenty of Fish,
That did make me laugh. Yeah bring in Paul Pinocchio Welch the Hans Cristian Anderson of Managing Oil companies. I speak as a fool who invested in SDX who were "on schedule " to double output by end of 2018 to 8000 bpd. Published reality was 3500. He should have been prosecuted as well as sacked

[haideralifool] 15/1/2020 11:05

"other than the bizarre and very concerning comment about first 'stabilising the company'. "

That comment was a bit strange, but in light of their tweet here:



Maybe that (and any similar activities is all that AKs comments referred to?

[plentymorefish] 15/1/2020 10:19

Perhaps it's time to bring in someone who doesn't over promise/under deliver quite so much....maybe Paul Welch, formerly of SDX?!…...

[stockport loser] 14/1/2020 18:21

You are correct, I am just frustrated because every one of my main shares has a background seller, I must be cursed.

[shareideas1] 14/1/2020 16:10

I see it flat and better to buy

[stockport loser] 14/1/2020 15:27

Death by a thousand sells at the moment, painful.

[nen2319] 14/1/2020 14:26

Lots of noise and armchair critics meanwhile the company takes full ownership of these significant strategic assets

The armchair critics of which I’m one is because the CEO himself gives timelines which are then completely missed.

The business itself could be great but continuing to give deadlines 7E completion - new gas customer etc and then nothing does not help anyone.

If it’s not completely done and dusted why say anything?

[divmad] 14/1/2020 09:15

Yeah. It could have been a Lek moment.

[jnbrw] 14/1/2020 09:06

Lots of noise and armchair critics meanwhile the company takes full ownership of these significant strategic assets..

[nametrade] 13/1/2020 17:12

ngms27..

So investors couldn't see that happening at 27p.....um I don't think so do you...

Investors not liking the delay in gas contract and forward guidance from previous update in my view.

[ngms27] 13/1/2020 17:08

If more demand equals a higher price then it's clear there is currently no real demand for the shares.I don't think it's unreasonable to think that's partly due to its main assets now being Nigerian.

[mutley walters] 13/1/2020 16:02

That is untrue the shares are mainly held by institutions who have largely not sold any so your comment is without merit

[ngms27] 13/1/2020 15:44

Is this another woeful company with strong Nigerian links?First Afren, now LEK, next SAVP?Maybe that's why no one wants the shares?

[nametrade] 13/1/2020 13:53

So I guess we will be waiting for Friday or Monday for any sort of update.

[nen2319] 10/1/2020 16:15

Read the posts we’ve done on the LSE board. It’s pretty clear what’s going to happen.

[mount teide] 10/1/2020 16:05

Got nothing to do with empires - AK is massively underwater on his personal investments and share options - it would take decades to earn sufficient to make up his current paper losses at the present s/p.

The 7E deal is likely to prove highly value generating for any with an investment horizon longer than the life cycle of a mayfly.

[itsriskythat] 10/1/2020 15:58

My notes from a private investor presentation by Savannah at TPI on 14th May 2018 ..

"Andrew Knott’s presentation was opaque, with mumbling and more mumbling as he faced the board rather than the audience.

Clearly there are numerous side deals that Andrew Knott has done with several Nigerian counter-parties to get this mainly gas-related Seven Energy purchase through. Trying to close the acquisition is proving more troublesome as there must now be some revisiting of the terms of the deal. It has not been completed yet, but Knott simply said to his audience they are working through all the obstacles.

Knott also said not to expect much benefit in terms of cashflow from the rising oil price as the gas sales agreements and hedges are structured to provide an income stream that only increases by 30% of the oil price increase and vice versa. The value he sees in the acquisition comes from the NPV of the income stream which exceeds the $280m price that was paid.

No mention was made throughout the presentation of the share price, so I guess that this isn’t his concern, as he is in this deal for the long term to benefit himself from the warrant exercise down the road. He is also in a concert party with Ariala Capital and Ludivine Capital, being all family members.

He said that he has short term ambitions to buy additional Nigerian upstream assets. These would be in infrastructure, because Savannah would be able to supply additional customers in Nigeria without the need for third party access to pipelines.

Separately in Niger each well in the current campaign will be declared commercial according to Knott. He’s said he staking his credibility on that, whilst also saying that the only pipeline required to sell his oil will be built by the Chinese for exporting their own oil. The Chinese pipeline completion date is likely to be 2021 and he will need to strike a transportation deal.

My guess is that Andrew’s heart tells him Savannah is his own private baby for the benefit of his family and that public shareholders may not benefit to anything like the same degree."

Fast forward to 2020 and what's worrying to me is that Andrew Knott still shows the same flaws.

It was to my regret that the last investor question and answer session was at 9:30am on a weekday in November. Never-mind that my questions were lost, but there was no replay of the session for anyone who missed the dial-in to listen to the answers. I see that people are still struggling to get answers to questions.

I've spoken to IR just before Christmas but it felt like an intrusion rather than a welcoming exchange.

I really hope that these communication issues are addressed this year and soon. There's got to be better dialogue between Savannah and its private investors.

[ngms27] 10/1/2020 15:01

Too busy peering over the empire to respond to PIs