Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[itsriskythat] 18/1/2020 09:24

Notice of conversion

I'd be very surprised now to learn that Savannah had repaid the $5.35m to RG and YAG on Friday 17th January when the loan matured. I now expect a notice of conversion by Riverfort Global and Yorkville Advisors Global was received by Savannah on Friday.

The trading pattern in the seven days leading up to the 17th was steadily downwards and the lowest daily VWAP was on the 16th January at VWAP 19.764p (from the data available on ADVFN).

With the low trading volumes since the New Year and the absence of positive news from Savannah, a downwards trend was easy to predict. I don't know when RG & YAG knew of Savannah's intention not to pepay the loan, but they decided to convert half of the loan plus interest at the earliest opportunity.

This is the evidence:

The O trades between 13:33 and 14:59 on 17th Janaury were 1,000,000, 1,043,403, 91,593, 2,659,692, 2,445,057,, 214,635, 1,000,000, 2,659,692 for a total 11,114,072

0.93 * VWAP = 0.93 * 19.764p = 18.381p

Total value of shares converted was £2,042,862

Mid FX GBPUSD was 1.30944 (from the data available on ADVFN) so the value of shares in US $ was $2,675,005.

Double this amount is $5,350,010 which is precisely the amount due to be repaid. So I'm pretty convinced that 50% of the loan that matured was converted on Friday at 18.381p and was sold in several tranches at 20.0p.

So I'm expecting an RNS on Monday to announce the RG and YAG loan wasn't repaid, and also the reason. This now raises questions about funding of the two segments of the business, the overheads in London and cash for any dividend.

[jotoha2] 17/1/2020 17:12

Am sure they found a nice safe home to benefit the lucky source!

[bushman1] 17/1/2020 17:07

Over 15 mill SAVP sold today. share price held at 20.10 p /

[bushman1] 17/1/2020 17:07

Over 15 mill SAVP sold today. share price held at 20.10 p /

[mr roper] 17/1/2020 07:55

If you can call them replies

[buffythebuffoon] 17/1/2020 07:02

FWIW

The replies to Agadem’s questions are on LSE.

Buffy

[ngms27] 16/1/2020 07:23

Is AK shafting you? He's literally shafted shareholders over the past few years.

[stockport loser] 16/1/2020 06:14

Recommended, however 18 months is far to short....

[nametrade] 15/1/2020 23:50

Ngms27...

You’ve hardly given time for the ink to dry on the deal man. Grow up
Come back in 18 months.. I will apologise then if they have got nowhere.

[ngms27] 15/1/2020 21:01

I've been saying for two years plus this was a bad deal for shareholders and was simply Empire building.Everyone told me it was a great deal and once completed would see accretive value for shareholders.Well they were wrong. I was on the money.Apologies will be great fully accepted ;)

[plentymorefish] 15/1/2020 19:26

beergut, your post 5312, one of the funniest replies I've seen in a long while, a real lol moment!

On a serious note, keep up the pressure guys, don't let this company off the hook, make them sweat to earn their daily bread cos they've sure of heck not been worthy of the pay they've received to date thus far from an investor perspective, ie share price halved in 3 years.....I think a new management team may be what's required here, and get off AIM so that full governance is required and you may just have a (decent) business going forward....ATB

[bushman1] 15/1/2020 19:13

jotoha2 ref Agadem post on LSE.

It appears an RNS from SAVP tomorrow morning or Friday. If not , an update will be forthcoming from IR.

I sincerely hope no further visit to any price below 19 p !

[mr roper] 15/1/2020 18:55

Think there is a gap on the chart a bit lower. So wouldnt be surprised if it fills. Hardly ecstatic with the performance since the 7 deal completed.

[jotoha2] 15/1/2020 17:40

My man gets it right lots of times , PMO at 19p -80P and TLW AT 120P-320p and good old BARC AT 40P-160P
He is saying buy now and exit at 110p , sounds good to me.

looks like 15p may be a nice entry point again .

[mount teide] 15/1/2020 17:30

'My Broker says this is the best run company on AIM , and will make me a millionaire , now that is real confidence !'

Sounds like your broker needs a visit to spec-savers or you need a new broker!

Sav P management have not hit a single business development target date given to the market for the three years I've been a shareholder!

To date its been another AIM story of great assets shame about the management!

5 wells drilled on a world class asset in 7 years - and still with zero production despite a 5 out of 5 hit rate - speaks for itself! The Chinese in the adjacent blocks have drilled more than ten times that number of wells in their best year!

[beergut] 15/1/2020 17:25

JOTOHA2How many Millions did you start with?

[jotoha2] 15/1/2020 17:18

My Broker says this is the best run company on AIM , and will make me a millionaire , now that is real confidence !

[stockport loser] 15/1/2020 16:41

Nice 100 share auction to make sure the share price it at days low, hope it was worth the £20. Ffs.

[shareideas1] 15/1/2020 14:38

You buy at 20.0p and sell the bounce back down to ~20 (or even a shade lower)... if your sale average is above your in price that's all you care about...

[stockport loser] 15/1/2020 14:05

Ah yes, but what would have been the point on organising a group to stop the note holders selling at 20p, to buy them and sell them at 20p?

[shareideas1] 15/1/2020 13:57

The secondary sale on 22nd December - not new shares but rather likely bond holder shares

[stockport loser] 15/1/2020 13:32

What placing at 20p?

[zengas] 15/1/2020 13:24

Thanks PMF I take you're point, but as far back as 2014/15 they said they were after a major transaction. Maybe he has stuck to a plan of building the company from a larger base profile and spreading the risk.

At £200m m/cap, substantial production/reserves/cashflow/low risk exploration etc, one could have thought he would now be in the best position to grow the company from here. My faith remains, but no doubt my patience is tested.

Good luck.

[plentymorefish] 15/1/2020 13:18

Appreciate the reply. I think we're on different pages (never a bad thing). I believe, as my post above, that if increasing the share price was what AK was after, he's gone a funny way about it by parking the low cost, albeit speculative (but with a high chance of success)Niger drilling campaign and preferring to embark on a long winded takeover of a complex asset in a neighbouring country for which he has diluted existing investors. There are around 3 to 4 times as many shares now in issue as there were in 2016 and the share price has halved (approximately). It's a long road back to profitability for any shareholders in since 2014/15/16/17/18. Yes, some may have taken a punt at 12p in mid summer but it was a risky punt and fair play if they managed to get their averages down as a result. I'll leave it at that as there's nothing left to say and here's hoping you'll all get your long awaited return. Maybe you'll get the dividend that the company mentioned in 2018 for payment in 2019 whilst you await that return?! ATB

[shareideas1] 15/1/2020 13:14

It will come - sure he has over promised on timelines but now feels very similar to the painful days/weeks ahead of the 7 completion everyone was saying he's a crook and it won't happen... no reason to think that the good things he has promised to happen won't happen, but it will take time... As to why the drip drip selling - well a load of guys took shares in a placing at 20p just before Christmas and it's likely some of those were in it for a quick turn so happy to sell above 20p... Over the next few months everything should be much clearer and hopefully there will be rewards for the longer term patient but ever more frustrated investors...