Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 08/8/2017 08:13

Good luck to them - on the balance of probabilities, i know which camp i would rather be in.

[ngms27] 08/8/2017 08:06

They might actually be hoping it does go through.We simply do not know whether the shares will trade higher or lower.

[mount teide] 08/8/2017 07:59

Well, there will probably be holders of 12.5m shares who will be hoping that the RTO deal does not go through.


According to Euroclear's Stock Loan Data report for the end of June 2017, there were no disclosable(greater than 0.5%) short positions in the stock, however, there were some 6.55% of non disclosable positions totalling 12,448,202 shares!

[lithological heterogeneities] 08/8/2017 07:50

And still absolutely nothing

[lithological heterogeneities] 07/8/2017 18:16

On the plus side, atleast that shows we ARE getting Seven Energy's assets very cheap as their creditors are not happy.

On the negative side, its because the assets are in NIGERIA.

[diversification] 07/8/2017 16:58

hxxp://www.pulse.ng/local/read-todays-newspaper-headlines-id7107100.html

Seven Energy sale might not bring relief for creditors

Seven Energy Nigeria Limited (SENL), a privately-held petroleum exploration and development company with headquarters in Lagos, is in sale talks with Savannah Petroleum Plc but even if the deal sails through, it may be no relief for its creditors, including Ecobank Plc.

[lithological heterogeneities] 07/8/2017 15:56

Yes, I know, if I am that unhappy then sell !

I could have and would have sold half on the JV news,at double the sp, that we were promised but now I am stuck in a company that I no longer recognise and have no ability to sell.

[lithological heterogeneities] 07/8/2017 15:49

More on the MASSIVE Nigeria oil industry problems:

20 JUL 17


As much as 30 percent of the oil sent by pipelines through the swampy Niger River delta is stolen, consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. estimates.

“We’re trying all sorts of things, you wouldn’t believe it,” Igo Weli, a manager at Shell, said in Port Harcourt, Nigeria’s oil capital. “But how do you protect thousands of kilometers of pipelines against people who are out to sabotage them?”

“It’s constant,” said Gail Anderson, a WoodMac researcher in Edinburgh. “It’s a big amount of crude being stolen.

Damage caused by theft, in terms of lost output and pollution, can be just as severe as from the armed attacks and bombings by rebels, which last year knocked out terminals including Shell’s Forcados and Qua Iboe, run by Exxon Mobil Corp.

The leak on the pipeline taking Agbada’s crude to the Bonny export terminal in the Gulf of Guinea forced Shell to declare force majeure, a legal clause allowing it to miss deliveries.

Last week, Shell again declared force majeure on Bonny exports because of a leak on another pipeline running to the terminal.

The region “has precious little to show for the oil it’s produced,” said Anderson of Wood Mackenzie

[diversification] 07/8/2017 14:58

Whilst many might think it is pointless to consider hypothetical valuations, I have considered the following driving factors:

1. We know that current debt is serviced in dollars, its these cash flow issues that have led to problems with liquidity. In my opinion it is unlikely that Savannah are going to make the same mistakes as Seven Energy. Once the Amukpe to Escravos pipeline is completed in the 1Q of 2018 we would have far better security/guarantee of dollar income to service any potential debt, but I don't expect Savannah to delay this accelerated deal until then.

2. Current bonds trade at 60% discount. Again assuming current lenders take a 60% hair cut, new debt would amount to £265m. With fitch ascribing a 'RD' junk status on its debt I think a 60% hair cut is more than reasonable.

3. In accordance with the AGM and assuming activation of the hurdle price of 114p, raising approx. £102m after costs via an equity placing. Fully diluting the full potential share issue of 498,895,628 of which a debt for equity swap would include 91,540,482 shares. Total funds raised would be approx. £196m.

With these assets then purchased at distressed prices there would be plenty of scope to raise a partially undrawn debt facility for $200m plus to improve the balance sheet for a rainy day and meet debt obligations until the new pipeline has been completed.

In the interim the company would be renegotiating payments from its gas sales to hopefully be paid in dollars rather than the local currency, just like Seplat have managed which is especially feasible given our close ties with NNDC and NNPC. As for existing equity holders of Seven Energy the companies debt holders look like they have taken control of the assets and as such the current shareholders may get 5% of the total transaction cost which is on a similar scale to the Gulf Keystone refinancing deal.

I too have assumed an awful lot but it is all in the interests of what I would consider a Value accretive deal. Remember those that finance the equity placing will also want a return on their investment which is more than possible if the company total market cap at 114p is approx. £570m plus debt. This deal also leaves significant upside to existing shareholders for exposure to Niger and a way for current institutional investors to print money by trebling current returns on completed equity placings which is more than justified by purchasing highly valuable/poorly managed assets at distressed prices.

[parisv] 07/8/2017 11:26

Africa Oil & Gas: NNPC, Shell, Chevron Sign Agreements in Nigeria

[ifthecapfits] 07/8/2017 09:51

hxxps://www.businessdayonline.com/seven-energy-sale-might-not-bring-relief-creditors/

[ifthecapfits] 04/8/2017 16:01

Could do with this re-listing.

[lithological heterogeneities] 04/8/2017 15:43

yep,still nothing

[gray1107] 03/8/2017 10:02

L
G
O

[haideralifool] 02/8/2017 08:24

Malcy did say in the last comment linked here that he felt people may not immediately realise the value of the RTO. I thought this was code for the relisting price being subdued.

[ngms27] 01/8/2017 23:41

One might say RRL and TRIN never mind the real bad boy. Olay.

[diversification] 01/8/2017 20:37

Dorset 64 - My re-list price is a lofty 111p

[mount teide] 01/8/2017 14:37

TXP - indeed Zengas - took a decent position shortly after the move to AIM - management track record and the fundamentals looked a good risk/reward at circa 8p over a 2 year outlook.

I've always found Norwegian Companies rather conservative by nature so, take some comfort from North Energy building a material holding.

[lithological heterogeneities] 01/8/2017 13:31

Come on...re-list FFS !

[diversification] 01/8/2017 12:45

Cheers for the tips guys, will research tonight. Spot on Zengas, touché ;)