Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[lithological heterogeneities] 30/7/2017 04:13

electric cars are not the future. still takes hours to charge them so cannot stop at a garage. Hydrogen cars are the future.

[diversification] 29/7/2017 19:44

You two will start banging on about electric cars soon lol!

hxxp://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Electric-Vehicles-No-Threat-To-Oil-Prices-Anytime-Soon.html

[gersemi] 29/7/2017 16:54

This week 69 oil exploration employees were murdered by Boko Haram in Nigeria. Why SAVP is even considering entering into this country is beyond me.

SAVP may be buying cheap reserves but that value is simply offset by the low rating given to oil companies operating in Nigeria..it's hardly worth the risk

[zengas] 27/7/2017 07:44

Seplat H1 2017 results.

The 3 OMLs 4, 38 & 41 is where Seplat derive 92% of it's production (Seven Energy partner).

OML 4, 38 & 41 produced 54,250 boepd in Half 1 2017 (16,748 oil & 37,502 gas).

Seplats 45% share = 7536 bopd + 101.3 mmcf/d = 24,413 net production out of 26,383 boepd across all its interests.

" Low cost production base (H1 production opex US$5.85/boe), diversification of oil export routes and growing contribution of the gas business positions Seplat on trajectory towards increased long term profitability.

Average oil price $45/b and gas at $2.97 mcf ($17.80/boe)

Completion of the 160,000 bopd Amukpe to Escravos pipeline prioritised by the Nigerian government and anticipated to be fully operational in Q1 2018.

Actively engaged with counterparties to finalise new GSA's - plan to take gross production towards 400 MMscfd.

Proceeding towards FID at the large scale ANOH gas and condensate development at OML 53

After 18 difficult months, the Company is now well-placed to secure a long-term return to profitability and growth. We have continued to cut costs, strengthen the balance sheet and establish alternative export routes to insure us against future disruption at Forcados. I believe that we are now a fitter, stronger Company than at any time in our history and look to the future with renewed optimism. "

[diversification] 26/7/2017 13:58

If it's any help Seplat reported a unit cost of ca. $9/boe for OML fields.

And I believe the in ground value for Niger is stated at $4/6 a barrel. I think it was ca. $22/boe. With a pipeline and just over $32/boe. Trucked.

We need to find it first though :)

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/7/2017 12:06

diversification
26 Jul '17 - 11:16 - 973 of 975 1 0
With all due respect what has the cost of production got to do with the in ground resource value?

..Hehe.... if all in production costs were $50/bbl, the in ground resource value would be quite low I'd have thought. Obviously, all in production costs aren't $50/bbl

[mount teide] 26/7/2017 12:00

Well - each to their own but, after completing the building of a 6 figure position just two days before the RTO was announced and the shares suspended - a circa 60p to 70p share-price on return to trading would be more than acceptable!

However, i have gut feel it could turn out a little better, considering what we now know about the distressed business of Seven Energy and the dire investment position of most if not all of its connected parties.

[diversification] 26/7/2017 11:52

Cheers buddy. My email does make a number of assumptions but I am trying to glean some light on the deal.

[buffythebuffoon] 26/7/2017 11:24

I think there's quite a number of people here who weren't expecting to be around for production.

I don't think it will make the slightest difference to anything diversification, but good on you for voicing what others, including myself, were thinking.

Buffy

[diversification] 26/7/2017 11:16

With all due respect what has the cost of production got to do with the in ground resource value?

See his video interview in July 2016 which attributes the in ground value.

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/7/2017 10:59

diversification
26 Jul '17 - 10:36 - 970 of 971 0 0
Hi Jessica,

Whilst I understand my comments can and will be taken with a pinch of salt,

With a view to completing value accretive deals, Andrew Knott has explained that Savannah will be testing up to $1 billion of potential resource upside from the first three exploration wells in Niger. As such with a current market cap of less than £100m we have exposure to up to a 500% plus return on our current investment


....Very large pinch of salt! You seem to have forgotten about the costs of producing any oil found, getting it to market & probably paying some tax along the way. ;-#)))

[diversification] 26/7/2017 10:37

Xxxx,

Thank you for your email. We are obviously all conscious of the issues you mention; rest assured they are being considered.

Kind regards
Jessica

[diversification] 26/7/2017 10:36

Hi Jessica,

Whilst I understand my comments can and will be taken with a pinch of salt, I am a small fish in a big pond, I thought I would email you so that you could consider this deal from the perspective of a private investor who invested for the vast upside exposure to the Niger drilling campaign.

With a view to completing value accretive deals, Andrew Knott has explained that Savannah will be testing up to $1 billion of potential resource upside from the first three exploration wells in Niger. As such with a current market cap of less than £100m we have exposure to up to a 500% plus return on our current investment. This has also been made compelling by a potential JV which valued our current un-drilled prospects at double the current market capitalisation.

Taking this into consideration and given the fact this RTO could see our market cap approach or exceed £1billion using Seplat as a benchmark, I feel this particular deal would not be value accretive at a re-listed price of anything less than 111p. This is especially the case when you consider future exposure to the Niger assets. If the share price does not return to the market at the suggested premium a potential capital return on our investment for Niger would have limited upside. I.e. a significant market cap of est. £1billion would only result in a 50% return to £500m upside in Niger compared to 500%.

I really hope you get this right for all concerned and felt it important to share my views as a failure to complete the deal on value accretive terms to existing shareholders could translate to significant disappointment.

Thank you for taking your time to read this.

Kind regards,

[ifthecapfits] 26/7/2017 10:26

If we relist over £1 i'll be stoked.

[parisv] 26/7/2017 09:53

I think Andrew Knott and the board will be fully aware of seven energies financial woes. Like you say we will just have to sit and wait for the details.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/7/2017 19:20

nothing more to say here.

no choice but to wait.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/7/2017 19:18

Yes, totally agree that this now gives us a potential massive bargain and I truly hope this is a "real" RTO and comes back to the market at many multiples of the share price it de-listed at ...but I still hate having anything to do with this country as far as oil is concerned.

As I said before, if Seven Energy can get into this much trouble with such huge assets then how will we manage in the future?

I would have preferred to stay out of Nigeria and just carried on with the rumoured $250m JV as that would have doubled the share price anyway before a single well is drilled.

Its all irrelevant now, We just have to wait and hope this RTO returns at a substantially higher price for the substantial assets we are getting for a bargain price.

I just want/need this to re-list asap. my money is tied up at a bad time.

[diversification] 25/7/2017 19:04

But it is this that has presented this opportunity in the first instance. Savp have an opportunity to purchase a fully integrated leading oil and gas company at distressed prices.

Presented with an improvement in infrastructure security and a restructuring of its debts will enable it to create a fitter and more stable entity.

We all know the history associated with heavily indebted Nigerian focused businesses. SAVP is unlikely to be one of those.

With the company likely to re-list at a premium you might become the luckiest unhappy investor around.

Your random posts have grated me as until now they have consistently lacked any form of balance or factual substance! Post 844 just goes to show how little research you have done.

Good luck with your investments, we are ultimatley all here for the same reason and that's to make money and share information to assist with that.

Enough said from me on this subject.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/7/2017 17:34

diversification25 Jul '17 - 14:35 - 961 of 963
All I hear from you is how bad Nigeria is for current shareholders, can you expand?

You are kidding right?
If you google the never ending stories about the unbelievably bad situation for oil companies in Nigeria then you would not ask such a ridiculous question.

Here is just one of the recent articles explaining just how dire the crisis is in Nigeria for oil companies...and you ask that question ???

Indeed,such is Seven Energy's dire financial situation they are even get a special mention:

FINANCIAL TIMES
November 27, 2016


"Seven Energy issued $300m of debt in 2014, but the company — which buys gas from fields linked to the Forcados pipeline — has since suffered a bigger funding crisis. As a result it missed a payment and had to restructure its debt with international bondholders."

Read the full article .

[diversification] 25/7/2017 15:18

1. Current weak cash flows from its gas operations

2. A delay in the finalisation of the World Bank partial risk guarantee

3. Naira Convertibility Issues: Natural gas revenues are US dollar pegged but are received in Naira. SE need US dollars to service its US-dollar debt which is secured against its assets.

4. Forcados pipeline closure

1&2.

SE completed the 69 km pipeline running from the Uquo field to Creek Town; gas supply to Calabar NIPP and the Unicem cement plant are now being delivered via this route. In addition to this the PRG is expected to be finalized in the coming months. The gas business will be a big part of SE future value.

3&4.

The successful recapitalization of the business following the reverse takeover and improved liquidity with all operations coming back online and more importantly safeguarded by the completion of the new Amukpe to Escravos pipeline which offers significant security against vandalism. Their is one other new route to market that evades me at present.

But to name a few in short and I can go on but I was asking the question…

Buffoon can you add?

[buffythebuffoon] 25/7/2017 14:40

Hi diversification,

How will SAVP mitigate the risk?

Thanks.

Buffy

[diversification] 25/7/2017 14:35

Do you actually know why they are in trouble though? Do you understand how SAVP will mitigate that risk? All I hear from you is how bad Nigeria is for current shareholders, can you expand?

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/7/2017 14:09

exactly, you have just proved my point.

even with all that going for them, they are still in extremely serious financial trouble , which just proves how incredibly bad it is in Nigeria.

[parisv] 25/7/2017 09:12

yet seven energy still managed 80 MMcfpd, 24,500 boepd & 50% production from south east 12,300 boepd