Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[buffythebuffoon] 14/7/2017 14:06

I think Ngms might be talking about the dilution caused by backing 7E into us.

Its funny how you pick up on things you didn't previously when you have more information. It seems quite clear it was always going to be Nigerian assets..

hxxps://youtu.be/aNoBsG4qxnA

Buffy

[thegreatgeraldo] 14/7/2017 13:42

ngms, how would you fund an extended drilling campaign in Niger without dilution?

[ngms27] 14/7/2017 13:39

Sorry Malcy but that's pure Taurus Merde.In my opinion the deals a failure if the shares do not trade material higher once re listed as otherwise it's not value accretive (Salesmans favourite buzz word) given the massive dilution to any Niger success.

[bushman1] 14/7/2017 13:14

Malcy's blog is now online. It reads well.

From the ' other ' bb : SAVP announced yesterday that the mystery company that they have been looking to acquire is Seven Energy the Nigerian E&P company. As yet we have no details on the structure of the deal but it would be a transformational one for the company, quite likely value accretive and one which the SAVP team are clearly very excited about. I think that the deal, once announced and investors are able to get their heads around the assets, will prove to be a master stroke by Andrew Knott. Obviously as it is such a big deal it will be a RTO and take some time to put together so the shares will remain suspended for a little while yet. In the meantime the work in Niger goes on and the significant upside from this campaign remains and a potential farm-out is not changed by this potential deal. Exciting times for SAVP and proving that Andrew and his team seem to work flat out on adding value for shareholders.

[taudelta1] 14/7/2017 07:54

wonder if pipeline issues are part of AK's motivation ... SAVP's oil is of much diminished value if it can't be piped not trucked away .. perhaps he felt insufficient progress has been made with both the southern (Chad) and western (NE Nigeria) options ... and that the RTO may secure some assistance re pipeline development/ownership?

[diversification] 13/7/2017 22:13

I spoke to Jessica earlier today.

She is unable to comment on whether the equity element of finance, announced on the 8th June would include equity issued to SE stakeholders. Whether their will be an equity placing or both.

She also said that we WILL be relisted before drilling takes place in Niger and the drilling schedule is currently unchanged.

[pembury] 13/7/2017 22:03

will 7e get any equity in savp's assets as part of the deal?
timing seems a coincidence and still no farmout, so is this part of it?

[parisv] 13/7/2017 21:52

ithological heterogeneities, AK actually said if there were to be a JV it would be before any drill had turned.

AK is the single largest shareholder he's not going to do a deal that's going to damage himself financially.

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/7/2017 21:49

diversification
13 Jul '17 - 21:38 - 924 of 924 0 0

I also stand by the fact that for those who decide to sell, your percentage holding of the company is too immaterial to make a difference to a significantly larger market cap.

...Of course, with the stock currently suspended, selling isn't really an option.....

[diversification] 13/7/2017 21:38

Tidd83. Agreed. It's the fire sale of distressed assets that has presented such a great opportunity to materially de-risk SAVP as an investment.

Until the terms of finance has been disclosed it is impossible to comment on the quality of the deal for current shareholders.

One thing that we know is the protracted talks concerning a joint venture have been caused by the inability of the potential partner to meet SAVP terms. On the basis of becoming an enlarged company and having the ability to raise finance to fund the Niger campaign, the potential partner will realise we cannot be held to ransom and may commit to the deal. If not we go it alone with 100% of the asset. (See Zengas historic posts on 100% exposure to Niger)

I know the idea of Nigeria can be uncertain but the board have stated that any investment would be completed taking into consideration the risked return on capital. I am sure the instability in Nigeria will be taken into consideration when making an offer for the assets.

A comment that someone made earlier about all the big boys leaving Nigeria due to the instability is incorrect. France only recently stated its intention of investing over $1billion into the Nigerian O&G sector. Instability, death threats, bombings, this is nothing new in Nigeria, its been going on for years!

Then their is the small consideration of the boards current multi million pound investment in SAVP, the discussions of the private investors being screwed in favour of the lucrative arrangements made by the board. Rubbish. The board have significant funds invested and AK has a reputation/career to consider, do you really think they will screw private investors/institutional investors over who are the lifeblood of the company?! Get a grip!!

The revaluation of the company and our investment will give us a much clearer indication of the dilution on future potential returns in Niger, however, until we understand what our current return on investment is their is no point writing off future potential returns in Niger.

The current SE bond value is a great indication as to how cheap these assets may be.

I also stand by the fact that for those who decide to sell, your percentage holding of the company is too immaterial to make a difference to a significantly larger market cap. With interest in SAVP at an all time high IMO, those that sell will be replaced ten fold by those who are drawn into the SAVP story. Coverage is only going to increase and as Agadem said, the institutional investors haven't flinched for years knowing the bigger picture. A picture AK has mad no secret of, for those that misunderstood the bigger picture and currently hold SAVP, well isn't that a lucky chance of fortune.

[taudelta1] 13/7/2017 19:12

IMO, 7 will be split as a means of optimising outcome for its solvency-challenged equity players. The assets going into the RTO will be the "good bank" .. unfortunately we don't know the terms ... GLA ..

[buffythebuffoon] 13/7/2017 17:44

Come on moron, it's been twenty seconds and you haven't voted the last post down.

[buffythebuffoon] 13/7/2017 17:43

Backdrop in 2016
• Continued deteriorating economic situation in Nigeria
• Naira devaluation and convertibility
• Continued shutdown of Forcados export terminal
• Gas customer demand build up remains slower than anticipated
• Unicem Cement plant expansion completed
• Heightened security risk

Well, at least the cement plant expansion is completed.

The other points weren't supposed to be reasons to invest were they?

Buffy

[lithological heterogeneities] 13/7/2017 16:45

"24,500 boepd Net production"


That is huge for a small company like SAVP.

[lithological heterogeneities] 13/7/2017 16:02

thx ghh,


confirms my hope that we will get these for an absolute steal otherwise it makes no sense to me and we could re-list a lot higher if the deal is at the right price for these huge assets.

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/7/2017 16:00

Thanks for that ghhghh

[ifthecapfits] 13/7/2017 15:56

Was about to post something along those lines Ghh. If 7 are struggling to pay its bond holders then its better for bond holders that they get something rather than nothing i.e. haircut.

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/7/2017 15:41

Cheers Dorset.

On debt for equity, question is, why would the holder of high yielding, secured debt swap that for equity in an explorer?

[dorset64] 13/7/2017 15:40

OK as I was thinking more of the cat out the bag regarding 7E but you're probably right, either way we'll have to wait for the finer detail.

[lithological heterogeneities] 13/7/2017 15:29

Dorset

It was because SAVP CEO kept repeating his promise of a $250m JV by end of June then, when they announced no news of it at end of June investors,quite rightly,started selling off. I know because I was also about to sell out after SAVP failing to deliver the promised Jun JV but got stuck here with the bloody suspension !

[skippy176] 13/7/2017 15:27

Divmad
From 38p to £1.50 post-suspension. Any precedent for that on AIM?

I think RRE went from about 45p to £1.40/£1.50 the other week. Not saying it will happen necessarily with SAVP - but it has happened recently.

[lithological heterogeneities] 13/7/2017 15:27

This may be great for the company but I am not so sure how it wil be for investors.

Peronally, I was happy the wat this was going before this huge complication and delays.