Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nen2319] 14/8/2018 17:33

Malcy’s bucket list update

hxxps://players.brightcove.net/2830693144001/default_default/index.html?videoId=5821897970001

SAVP part is about half way through.

[honestmarty] 14/8/2018 12:40

Any day now on the 4th well. Even a solid success will mean very little.

Gingernuts has bet the house on 7E, and it hasn't happened.

2 weeks since rumours of an interim update, it hasn't happened.

The fat lady might not be singing yet, but she is definitely waddling towards the podium.

[orvis] 14/8/2018 11:21

4th well news next week perhaps?

[honestmarty] 13/8/2018 10:36

Testing times.

I think the 4th well could find a fully functioning petrol station and the share price would still go down.

Gingernuts needs to release an update specific to the RTO and what the problem is immediately.

Clearly the market is badly spooked by his silence and the shareholders are paying heavily.

Andrew you plonker.!

[rampair] 10/8/2018 12:30

Potato potato, shorter shooters, whichever way I have a few more.

R.

[rampair] 10/8/2018 12:29

Either someone has no sense of humour- Marty. Or the shooters think it’s not cheap enough!, I do.

R.

[honestmarty] 10/8/2018 09:56

Rampair

Yes, I believe the hour has arrived and have been loading up.

The share price is being nudged down , but the imminent update on the RTO forces me to take the risk of missing out on slightly lower prices.

Positive RTO news will have us in the low 30's, so time to just switch off sit back and RELAX.

[rampair] 09/8/2018 23:25

Nen, it’s silly volume as Martyoil alluded to.

[rampair] 09/8/2018 23:22

Marty, I’ve had a heck of a day and I’m not in the mood for stupid.
Are you seriously saying you have decided that in your esteemed opinion - it’s now worth buying in?

I’ve been in this roadshow half a century and that surprised me.

I will be very unhappy if it’s silliness - be on guard!

[pembury] 09/8/2018 12:39

33,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25 when is 24 tomorrow?

[nen2319] 09/8/2018 12:25

Just who is selling so many shares? The bond holders promised not to as confirmed by AK so if its them why? And what will happen if the deal doesn’t go through? What happens then? We’ve had no TR1’s so at the moment we can assume it’s not the II’s.

So what’s going on?

[divmad] 09/8/2018 12:12

I can imagine the IIs are giving AK an earful right now.

[nen2319] 09/8/2018 12:10

Wow. Falling off a cliff now!

[honestmarty] 08/8/2018 18:50

Enjoyed the Voxmarkets podcast.

Gingernuts in top form.

We now know there will be an update specificaly addressing the failure of AK to deliver the 7E RTO.

His danglers are firmly in the vice now.

Great news, but not before time.

[divmad] 08/8/2018 15:33

Zengas, I don't know but if they are thinking of putting up that extra $60mn investment soon in the back of excellent progress in Niger, I doubt if they would be happy paying the 35p per share price agreed back in December. I suspect they are holding back, like others, until the 7E deal is completed.

[bushman1] 08/8/2018 15:25

Yawn. Honestmarty has his finger on the pulse as usual.

[honestmarty] 08/8/2018 14:43

Not looking too hot.

Does Mister Market knows something we don't?

Are we being shorted in anticipation of drama with the 7E RTO?

The potential for mischief is real.

[thomasthetank1] 08/8/2018 14:42

All - please see below a link to an interview with Andrew Knott on Vox Markets today. The Savannah Petroleum section starts at 1:40.

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/savannah-petroleum-savp-prospex-oil-gas-pxog-nuformix-nfx-african-battery-metals-abm/

[laptop15] 08/8/2018 13:37

How much cadh here guys?? How much production and how much profit are they making??

[zengas] 08/8/2018 12:49

Div maybe it will, maybe it won't as we thought it. Maybe it could be part of an Asma Group investment directly into Savp ? (ie Straegic Partnership -see 18/12/17 RNS) Maybe there are some changes to the Accugas percentage/terms ?

Given there has been 3 in a row discoveries todate from Niger, how does that affect the strategic partnership proposal now that the company is more valuable with those compared to when the deal was first outlined (if at all) ? Would this affect those terms ? AK said recently the farm in value had gone up.

[divmad] 08/8/2018 12:39

When will the Niger farm in occur, with all this good news, I wonder?

[canigou2] 08/8/2018 12:35

Zengas, interesting analogue. Thanks.

It appears SAVP are in the early stages of creating a significant mid-cap Oil co. with significant exploration upside funded by growing revenue/cash flow from accretive production. I like what I see so far. They appear very professional. Without giving too much away, I pass their office in Canary Wharf on the way to work. They look like a serious outfit in the making IMO. Fingers crossed, ducks lining up.

[zengas] 08/8/2018 12:12

Bit more news from Kosmos lately which I'm using as one yard stick for my £2 target for Savp with further cash coming in while proving up further discoveries from the low risk Sokor alternances in Niger and the acquisition in Nigeria.

Todays news from Niger shows Savp are moving faster towards production there. Broker thinks end of year could be possible but even if next year - this is in line with Savp getting to first production and a Broker valuation 66p this am.

With such a significant low risk exploration pool in the number of prospects in Niger, i'd expect that once in production the company could also add to it's portfolio like Kosmos which is making its 2nd significant acquisition in 9 months.

Kosmos Energy Q1 results out 2days ago.

Produced 2.9 mmbo (32,000 bopd) in the 1st quarter from Ghana & E.Guinea.
Cash of $116m.
Total liquidity available to them of $1.3b and $1.079b net debt.
M/cap £2.4b.

Now announced buying 25,000 boepd in G.O Mexico.

"Adds estimated 2P reserves of approx 80 mmboe increasing total 2P reserves from over 200 mmboe to approx 280 mmboe." and "Breakeven at $48/boe WTI". Planned exit of 70,000 boepd in 2018

Cost is $1.225b made up of $925m cash (from their credit/liquidity availability) and $300m in Kosmos shares.



Also have a stake in a substantial gas resource that has to be developed but this acquisition outside of Africa puts them on a m/cap of circa £2.7b and now over £1b of debt. What their ultimate valuation increases to is anyones guess, but imo this is a similar model that could be used by Savp as it evolves beyond this long awaited 7E transaction. Once completed, the building blocks are surely in place to create significant value imo.