Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/6/2018 23:31

ZENGAS
6 Jun '18 - 10:02 - 2577 of 2586
0 3 0
The Niger prize is 2.8 billion bls recoverable much of it low risk and this already the risked recoverable figure (from a much greater unrisked total). We only need a fraction of that and that's only one asset. This is going to ramp up with patience. What the first two discoveries have done is open up the potential of many repeatable successes and derisk many other structures. The success rate has been 75% by the chinese in gaining over 1 billion bls as of 2 years ago just from the sokor alternances so there's no reason to think we won't do as good on the back of CGG Roberstons report and our own geologists and technical people given 2 out of 2 already.

2 from 2, wonder how much more than £70 mill the market would value Niger on its own at?

[ifthecapfits] 06/6/2018 15:13

from the above - implies Nigeria news this month.

[bushman1] 06/6/2018 14:42

Malcy interviewing AK this morning 10/10

[rampair] 06/6/2018 13:44

It’s fair enough that Seven Bondholders get their capital back and whilst frustrating for us - it’s part of the deal.
We have this at a good price and we are playing the game, giving Bonds a chance to exit. Remember a lot of funds cannot hold equities. A lot of holders simply don’t want them.
What we do have (and I defer to Zengas and his knowledge of the process)is a company
Very close to pulling off the deal that allows us a great chance of building a decent company.
These are the first steps, and successfully taken. Once our deal closes we must be ready and able to drive forward- I see and acknowledge the frustration of earlier holders, but, would the share price have held on the way to getting where we are? Would we have started drilling at 42p? I somehow doubt it. So, whilst I hold a decent chunk, and would have loved 38/40p today...

Thanks to other posters for pointing out the obvious, always appreciate others point of view. Decided to stick with it.

Regards, R.

[thomasthetank1] 06/6/2018 13:34

Interview with Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Petroleum, on Vox Markets today. Andrew's section starts at 13:45.

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/seeing-machines-see-savannah-petroleum-savp-premier-african-minerals-prem-alan-green-pdz-imcp-bon/

[ifthecapfits] 06/6/2018 11:23

Loads of 'A' trades pushing it down - bots at work?

[canigou2] 06/6/2018 10:19

Dipped my toe in this morning. Those Ducks are lining up. Further drilling success & most critically the finalisation of the 7E deal will see SAVP start a period of considerable re-rating IMHO.

[zengas] 06/6/2018 10:04

Savp to be fair have concentrated on the low risk drills to start with. They always said they'd start with the low risk stuff and that the creaming curve for those discoveries (sokor alternances)had not been reached - meaning many more of them to drill.

Average size 11-60 mmbls (and not over 60 mmbls) for the sokor alternances and they can target 1 billion bls risked recoverable from these due to their very low risk (75% success rate).

The overall unrisked recoverable mid case is 6.9 billion bls (almost 7 billion) and 2.8 billions bls risked.

They aren't without high impact plays and prospects themselves. They have the higher risk Koro for example which is a 326 mmbo recoverable stratigraphic play and not as low risk as these sokor alternances.

The Upper Sokor were high risk in the Bushiya and Amdigh (and upcoming Kunama) prospects and so far I haven't seem them having any discoveries in them other than the E sands of the alternances as hoped for. The CPR also had no prospective Yogou target in Bushiya, Amdigh or Kunama.

Probably a wiser stratetgy to build on the easier stuff first before putting funds towards the higher risk, but greater numbers play in one prospect too early.

[zengas] 06/6/2018 10:02

The Niger prize is 2.8 billion bls recoverable much of it low risk and this already the risked recoverable figure (from a much greater unrisked total). We only need a fraction of that and that's only one asset. This is going to ramp up with patience. What the first two discoveries have done is open up the potential of many repeatable successes and derisk many other structures. The success rate has been 75% by the chinese in gaining over 1 billion bls as of 2 years ago just from the sokor alternances so there's no reason to think we won't do as good on the back of CGG Roberstons report and our own geologists and technical people given 2 out of 2 already.

We're waiting on the 7e asset deal to fully close, when it does it will be giving us $60m/yr and within 15 months circa $100m/yr free cash and what this might help buy or finance is anyones guess.

I've no doubt there will be significiant additional acquisitions as they have said.

The institutions have the opportunity over the next 7-8 months to exercise their options and provide in total from all sources up to $155m approx of new money at 35p and why won't they when they can get a significant dividend as well.

Combine that with $100m/yr free cash and any possible form of farm out value in Niger plus a possible source of minor debt = multiple options - which in turn could double the free yearly cash and this company will grow significantly.

I see a £2b+ valuation (and £2+ from the current 30p) as per the likes of Kosmos (£2.4b). Building blocks firmly in place imo.

[gisjob2] 06/6/2018 08:46

That's why I expected more movement today ! What price would we have been on a duster. This well proves the theory of the basin and the extension into SAVP permit and gives scale to the point of working out a development strategy and next to no movement whatsoever. Disappointing !

[ifthecapfits] 06/6/2018 08:36

Proves up the whole area, sort of, though doesn't it. Presumably we will take on the extra six drills? and it would be good to hear that Nigeria has been sorted.

[pembury] 06/6/2018 08:31

31.5p, makes you think what is the point!

[gisjob2] 06/6/2018 08:28

Need to tell the market what great news it is ! Ho-hum

[ifthecapfits] 06/6/2018 08:15

Bloomin marvelous. Great news.

[thomasthetank1] 06/6/2018 07:55

Mirabaud note on SAVP

Two and counting

Following its first strike at Bushiya-1, Savannah (SAVP LN) has announced a significant oil discovery at its second exploration well in the R3/R4 licence in Niger£s Agadem rift basin. The Amdigh-1 well encountered some 22m of net oil pay in the primary target, more than twice the pay thickness at Bushiya-1. Although further work is required to determine the resource size, our back of the envelope calculations suggest a discovery in the order of 20-40 mmbbls, using approximate gross rock volume, reservoir and fluid property assumptions. We also note that SAVP has engaged consultants to commence detailed development concept evaluation in the belief that Amdigh-1 has the potential to unpin a future development hub in the East R3 area. With a third well planned at Kunama and the drilling campaign likely to be extended beyond the three firm wells, we anticipate further positive newsflow from Niger in the weeks ahead.

Amdigh-1 strikes oil

The Amdigh-1 well is located a few kilometers to the north of Bushiya-1 in the eastern portion of the R3 block (see Figure 1, above). The well was drilled to a target depth of 2,469m in 24 days and encountered the main target objectives at or close to prognosis. A substantial dataset has been collected from the well (including wireline logs, pressure data and fluid sampling), confirming the presence of 22m of net oil pay across two horizons (E1 and E2) in the primary Sokor Alternances objective. The wireline logs confirm the reservoir properties to be good to excellent (high 20% porosity) and available pressure data indicates the presence of light oil, consistent with discoveries elsewhere in the basin. Furthermore, two 10 litre oil samples were successfully recovered to surface £ a better outcome than Bushiya-1 where mechanical issues hampered sampling in one of the zones.

In our minds, the significance of the Amdigh-1 result is two-fold. Firstly, it proves beyond doubt that the tilted fault block play drilled so successfully by CNPC extends into Savannah£s acreage, and that exploration success rates (75%) and discovery sizes (1-50 mmbbls) are likely to be comparable. Secondly, whilst it is still early days, Amdigh appears to be an important step towards establishing commercial viability. Indeed, we believe that a standalone development hub, trucking crude to refineries in northern Nigeria, would require just 35 mmbbls of aggregate recoverable reserves to be viable at prevailing oil prices.

Next steps.

Looking ahead, as previously outlined, the company plans to re-enter the Amdigh well at a later date to conduct testing using a separate workover rig. This batch drilling and testing approach is the same as that adopted by CNPC elsewhere in the basin and has the advantage of using a cheaper workover rig for testing activities. We expect the company to update the market in the coming weeks on the timing of testing which will provide more information around reservoir deliverability and enable it to put some resource numbers on the discoveries (which it is yet to do). Additionally, on the back of the Amdigh success, we believe it is high likely that the campaign will be extended beyond the three firm wells (with funding from existing cash and future Nigeria cash flow).

In the meantime, the GW-215 rig will now be mobilised to the Kunama-1 well site, around 12km to the northeast of Amdigh-1, which is expected to take between 10-15 days. The Kunama-1 well will target a simple horst block structure, much like CNPC£s Goumeri discovery over the R3 border (currently on production). The well will target 35 mmbbls of mean prospective resources across the primary Sokor Alternances and secondary Upper Sokor horizons. Drilling is expected to take 30-35 days suggesting a result in late July.

[zengas] 06/6/2018 07:30

2 successes out of 2. Now moving on to Kunama prospect which is described in the CPR as "a simple horst block much like the Goumeri field".

Bushiya had 10m net pay combined. Amdigh today 22m combined and notably Steve Jenkins says this one is a significant discovery and prompting them to engage outside contractors already for the development study.

[timberwolf3] 06/6/2018 07:27

Looks like it's all systems go on getting these wells into producers ASAP:

Two discoveries from our first two ARB exploration wells is clearly encouraging for the future of our Niger project. Given these successes, we have now engaged external consultants to commence detailed development concept evaluation work around the creation of a potential R3 East Area Early Production System

[honestmarty] 06/6/2018 07:16

A lovely start to the day

35p anyone?

[gisjob2] 05/6/2018 20:48

Just watched a recent Proactiveinvestor interview and surprised I missed this but the previous well hit target depth in 16 days and took a further 9 days evaluation etc. So much less time to target depth than I thought.

Does this imply a fair chance they've found oil ? because if there was nothing to evaluate surely the well would have been completed by now.

Of course I could be completely wrong and there could have been a delay etc.

Check it out: at about 7.10mins



Also if the previous well took 16 days to TD, then it would have been less to the oil bearing layers.

I note that at about 10 days into this drill the share price spiked about 10% (about 3p) over 2 days. Interesting ? or not ?

[rampair] 05/6/2018 18:42

8:00am sharp by Mr Li who pressed “go” that’s 30 days into a 30/35 day drill. Time flies when you get older!
So, an incredibly tight lipped crew, excellent discipline- that’s a good thing. We will be lucky if we get all hitting the desired target. They seem to be an effective
team though.Hopefully lucky too.