Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[rampair] 11/7/2018 12:24

I think most of us would agree with Malcys view. The wells have all come in, the cash is accruing from the 7 deal the price of oil is up & it seems that our gas hub is intended for bigger things. The only thing we have to do is relax into Nigeria time and listen to “Honest Guv” becoming ever more creative with his/her deramping.

Early production, hmm, nice.

R.

[ifthecapfits] 11/7/2018 11:52

Malcy's view FWIW.

Yet more good news from Savannah who have announced that Kunama-1 is an oil discovery. This is the third consecutive discovery in the R3 portion of the R3/R4 area in the Agadem Rift Basin in S E Niger. Preliminary results indicate a total estimated 9m of net oil bearing sandstones in the E1 and E5 reservoir units within the primary Eocene Sokor Alternances objective.
Reservoir properties as indicated by wireline logs, show good quality, light oil, equivalent to that found at Amdigh-1 and consistent with offset wells along trend and the depth/API trend observed across the basin. The drilling of this well was incredibly efficient, only 14 days to TD against an estimated 22 and the whole well was completed in 23 days against an estimate of 30-35 days which clearly has a knock-on effect on budgets. Clearly delighted with this campaign so far, the company has elected to exercise the first of six individual options with Great Wall and the rig will move to drill Eridal-1 also in R3 of R3/R4 PSC only 6km from Amdigh.
These discoveries will now almost certainly mean that the company can seriously consider an early production system that can be put in place quite quickly as the three wells should underpin a commercial development in a short space of time.
This is not the only piece of good news for SAVP this week as yesterday the Group MD of NNPC detailed the seven critical projects, 5 by them and 2 by NPDC one of which includes ‘full utilisation of the Uquo Gas Plant to deliver 200 mmscfd through its Utapate gas in OML 13’. This is aimed at bridging the supply shortage in the domestic market and will be achieved by expanding the Uquo gas processing facilities owned by Accugas, currently being taken over by SAVP and AIIM as part of the Seven Energy deal. Under the Seven agreement SAVP are carried by AIIM for any expansion costs which would make Uquo of strategic value as a local infrastructure hub.
The market are clearly waiting for Seven to close but investors should be aware that the tide is turning very strongly in Savannah’s favour and the shares should be significantly higher.

[ifthecapfits] 11/7/2018 11:24

Once again disappointed with the share price action. I guess the main event is going to be Nigeria deal - when that is all finally singed off. In it for the long run.

[thomasthetank1] 11/7/2018 11:03

Mirabaud note today:

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) this morning announced its third successive discovery in Niger, maintaining its 100% record with the drillbit. Like the two preceding wells, Kunama-1 encountered light oil in a good quality reservoir at the primary Sokor Alternances target interval. The well encountered two discrete reservoir sand packages (zones E1 and E5), with combined net pay of 9 metres – compared to 10 metres at Bushiya-1 and 22 metres at Amdigh-1. Oil samples have been recovered from both horizons and will be sent for lab analysis, however the indications are that qualities are good, consistent with other finds in the basin. ‎

As with the prior two discoveries, Savannah is refraining from updating volumetric estimates until it has flow test results. Still, following three consecutive successes, we expect total discovered resources to have surpassed the c.35 mmbbls threshold required for a commercial hub development (including Bushiya, Amdigh and Kunama). Exploration drilling will continue in the region, with Eridal-1 due to spud next c.6km to the east of Amdigh (which will likely serve as the region hub), and each satellite discovery incrementally improving the economics of the hub and the robustness of a development. We note that Savannah has recently labelled a new prospect (Zomo - see the figure below), which is situated close to the Amdigh and Bushiya discoveries and may be another satellite target for a future well in the programme. After exercising its first option slot on the rig for Eridal, Savannah is left with five remaining options, meaning that it has plenty of running room before it will need to negotiate a new rig contract.

With discovered volumes on an upward trajectory, Savannah is naturally considering its options to best monetise the finds. A dedicated test and completion rig is due to undertake a batch campaign later this year, which will allow for more accurate volumetric calculations, as well as the installation of completion assemblies in preparation for commercial production. More detail on an early production scheme centred on R3 East is expected to be announced in the next couple of months, however the company has previously talked about a leased 'off the shelf' production facility for early phases of development, which could provide a fast track to first oil at minimal upfront cost. This is quite an achievement for a company which only spudded its first exploration well in late Q1 this year.

[honestmarty] 11/7/2018 09:01

Thanks wardrv, a little appreciation encourages me to keep trying. 😉

[wardrv] 11/7/2018 08:56

Actually I am quite impressed with honestmarty's posts, to come up with a post that makes 3 exploratory wells in a row that discover good quality oil sound like a failure, well let's face it, that takes some doing.

[zengas] 11/7/2018 08:09

Another excellent well result and will keep the reserves on a rising trend with more wells to come.

Accugas acquisition getting very interesting and thanks to TTT and shining light for the Mirabaud post on that. I posted on friday what revenue might flow and this latest news is significant.

My post - ' Accugas has 600 mmcf/d (100,000 boepd) pipeline distribution capacity and currently 2 processing trains which it owns at Uqo capable of doing and tested at 240 mmcf/d (40,000 boepd).'

From Mirabaud "Interestingly, one the projects is said to involve the expansion of the Uquo gas processing facilities, owned by Accugas, which is in the process of being jointly purchased by Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) and PE group AIIM"

I won't repost my figures in detail but via this acquisition this could deliver some serious cash to Savp to see talk of Uquo's processing power being expanded so soon. All coming together and just like to see the deal go forward by month end to add to the 100% well successes so far.

[bad gateway] 11/7/2018 07:50

Seem pretty committed to me honest, remember they're individual options sure they'll decide from results going forward.
Re the testing the original RNS back in March did tell investors this was the plan so th rest of us knew its just you thats surprised..

Each prospect is anticipated to take c.30-35 days to drill, and there will be a rig move of c.10-15 days between each well. Throughout the drilling, the Company plans to log prospective sections, with further logging as required for hydrocarbon bearing sections. Wells will be suspended in the success case for re-entry and further evaluation, which would include well testing and completion using a smaller, cheaper and dedicated testing or workover rig.

[honestmarty] 11/7/2018 07:39

Nice result, 3 from 3.

Disappointing they can't commit to full 6 additional wells as was expected. Just 1

Very vague on finishing and production testing existing 3 finds too? I expected this to occur immediately.

It appears money is tight?

No update on completion of 7E RTO either, problems accessing cash from there and the production drop probably the reason behind the funding shortfall.

What happened to the promised additional funding we were promised?

[mirabeau] 11/7/2018 07:37

Why won't this stock move? All looks promising on the company front and yet the price remains stagnant - placing drag?

[timberwolf3] 11/7/2018 07:32

Yet more good news , that's 3 out of 3 now with a 4th now confirmed to spud in the next couple of weeks and you can still buy in at under placing price when none of the wells had been drilled.

[knights] 11/7/2018 07:26

9m of pay......

[bushman1] 11/7/2018 07:22

Excellent result. A new drilling campaign now begins in 15 days time, the first of six options to drill further individual wells now being taken up by SAVP.

[lithological heterogeneities] 10/7/2018 20:31

still nothing.

[rampair] 10/7/2018 15:56

Hope this helps! Links through ( if you take out the Https and retype it, up it comes in blue!) click through to homepage.
Thanks Gmr64.

[ifthecapfits] 10/7/2018 14:53

Great find that gmr64.

"Interestingly, one the projects is said to involve the expansion of the Uquo gas processing facilities, owned by Accugas, which is in the process of being jointly purchased by Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) and PE group AIIM (African Infrastructure Investment Managers) as part of the Seven Energy deal........."

[gmr64] 10/7/2018 14:47

NNPC Signs Agreement with Shell, Seplat, Oando, Others to Implement $3.7bn Gas Projects

hxxps://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/10/nnpc-signs-agreement-with-shell-seplat-oando-others-to-implement-3-7bn-gas-projects/

[gmr64] 10/7/2018 14:47

Mirabaud Note today:

Mirabaud Securities
10 July 2018

Nigeria’s state oil companies NNPC/ NPDC have sealed a flurry of agreements to develop fallow gas resources as the West African nation seeks to bridge a supply shortage to the domestic market. According to a press statement by NNPC, seven Critical Gas Developments (rumoured to be worth US$3.7bn) have been signed with a variety of Oil Majors and local independents. Interestingly, one the projects is said to involve the expansion of the Uquo gas processing facilities, owned by Accugas, which is in the process of being jointly purchased by Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) and PE group AIIM (African Infrastructure Investment Managers) as part of the Seven Energy deal.
The proposed project is expected to involve the development of a cluster of gas fields (containing some 5 Tcf) by NPDC in neighbouring OML13 (see map below) which would deliver incremental volumes alongside the Uquo field itself. Such a move would be in-line with Savannah’s strategy of increasing gas throughput over the Uquo facilities (we note that the cost of any expansion would be fully carried by AIIM under the terms of the Accugas deal with Savannah). It also highlight the potential strategic value of Uquo as a regional infrastructure hub, being the only major gas processing and distribution network in this part of the Niger Delta

[ifthecapfits] 10/7/2018 14:15

Tick tock.

[mount teide] 09/7/2018 01:02

Latest short position according to Euroclear is 0.56% - down from 6.6% prior to relisting.

[rampair] 07/7/2018 01:18

Zengas, the work you have put in is very much appreciated, I Have access to some market reports that give a poorer analysis than that! It takes a lot of effort to put posts together that make a complex deal more manageable.
I have to say my reasoning for buying the share was the complexity of the deal, - it always puts people off, in fact I think AK used the phrase “there’s opportunity in
complexity “ so I bought under the placing price- luck basically. Since then I’ve come to realise that there is potentially a good company emerging here. My only concern is if it gets taken out on completion.
R.