Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nen2319] 20/8/2018 16:39

No shorts for SAVP on short-tracker or short data. My assumption was it’s the bond holders selling off their shares at whatever price they can get for them?

[bushman1] 20/8/2018 16:32

Pembury, could you please advise why you disagree with Mount Teides post ? Many thanks.

[mount teide] 20/8/2018 16:11

From observation of L2 it seems hedge fund shorts have been in complete control of the book over a number months - taking full advantage of the uncertainly caused by the further delay to the completion of the 7E deal.

This is likely to continue until they either get wind from an insider that a deal completion announcement is imminent or are caught off-guard by a surprise announcement. Due to the number of parties/lawyers involved in the deal i strongly suspect it will be the former rather then the latter.

[ifthecapfits] 20/8/2018 10:59

Charts on the main thread never seem to work for me!

[honestmarty] 20/8/2018 10:23

Nice to see a bit of blue.
Could the large sells on Friday be the End of our pain?
Market is responding to some insider information.which I can now reveal
Rumour has it Gingernuts was spotted being dragged by the ear by Jessica down to Saville Row.

It's looking good ladies.

[ifthecapfits] 20/8/2018 09:02

Looks like the bots are buying in tranches of 5k shares.

[laptop15] 18/8/2018 16:02

An oil expert that I chat with says SAVP will go to 50p after deal completed....He is confident. Also malcy another oil expert values the share at 55p and says will go higher as the business expands. 2 compelling buy targets baring in mind share price 25p.

[xxnjr1] 18/8/2018 09:11

There's nothing wrong with that suit. Perfect for mingling with Sahel movers and shakers.

[divmad] 17/8/2018 16:52

All we need now is a placing on Monday morning to match these sells, to complete a dreary week.

[honestmarty] 17/8/2018 16:40

May you live in interesting times.

Could those large sells be stop losses being hit?

[laptop15] 17/8/2018 16:25

Overhang gone

[shareideas1] 17/8/2018 15:45

Clean up trade?

[divmad] 17/8/2018 15:41

So there's one explanation for the weakness. A 4.8mn share sale at 24.5p. Wtf??

[laptop15] 17/8/2018 14:27

How much cash do they have here guys??

[chessman2] 16/8/2018 17:44

I'm still considering jumping aboard following a recommendation at the pub from Mount Fuji[Japan or Tenerife??] after the HUR AGM and am surprised at the recent slow decline.

However if SL can increase their holding I'll be guided and persuaded by them but I'll wait until next week until jumping in. After Afren I said, like many others, I would not touch anything connected with Nigeria again; maybe that has something to do with the recent problem.

[divmad] 16/8/2018 16:19

On a multi year view, which is how the canny Scots look at their investments, it certainly is value. I should know, having worked in the investment department of one of their competitors in St Andrew Square many moons ago.

[nen2319] 16/8/2018 14:53

Have we hit bottom? I got some more at 25.29.

[orvis] 16/8/2018 14:24

Well Standard Life Aberdeen see value here. Their holding is now 5.7%, up from 4.89%.

[nen2319] 16/8/2018 14:06

He’s also in Lagos whilst giving that interview. So fingers crossed!

[thomasthetank1] 16/8/2018 13:57

Interview with Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Petroleum, on Vox Markets. Link below:

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/motif-bio-savannah-petroleum-emmerson-chris-bailey-on-kgf-rnk-wg--9da28de

[zengas] 16/8/2018 07:59

I don't see it in that light Divmad.

Just think if they farmed out what that kind of cash that would do for the company.
We still need to drill about 40+ wells to maybe get our 500 mmbls so that's about $120m perhaps. That could come from debt financing Also AK said they wouldn't want to carry all the risk so cash via a farmout could open up other opportunities.

If Asma didn't take up the strategic partnership - no money but 200m less shares in that total. I would have thought that Nigeria could yield as much value as Niger via Accugas etc. The transaction would supply a lot of free cash flow so if you had all those factors above to happen, the company could add further assets, perhaps producing and I wouldn't rule out other African regions. For now their confident the deal will go ahead. A year or so ago the investor concern was if Niger drilling would ever start.

This mornings RNS confirms that Standard Life has now increased by just under a further 0.8% to 5.7% and an extra 6.58m shares.

[divmad] 16/8/2018 07:07

Zengas, many thanks for that .

So, it does appear that on certain blue sky assumptions, Niger is the tail that wags the dog at savp. £2 upside valuation compared with 42p at the CPR level in Nigeria. It does make me sigh in disbelief that our original investment thesis is playing out beautifully but we are being dragged down by all this dilution at 7E and no certainty still over that deal.

Even the ASMA money has not been committed - $90mn? Why no confirmation of the first $30mn of it? Can we assume that extra dilution?

If we farm out 50% of the Niger assets, on top of all that potential warrant and ASMA dilution, isn't that a double dose of dilution that savp shareholders don't need?

I can see how some IIs are not best pleased with the financial chemistry here, even whilst the operational progress in Niger is there for all to see.