Safestay Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 09/6/2023 12:26

..sort of share that Simon Thompson of Inv. Chron. normally likes imo (& phps Paul Scott)

2 financial/share sector writers/tipsters

improving perf., some downside protection & looks cheap

[smithie6] 09/6/2023 12:13

share price rise is 2p.

7%
not 3%

more to come imo. ...let the results filter out....

[deepverge] 09/6/2023 12:07

Wondering what to say about a 3% rise (when I was dreaming of 30%) . . . better than a kick in the teeth. And I need to dream smaller.
Good luck to Safestay and shareholders, I hope the improvements in business continue for you all.

[smithie6] 09/6/2023 12:00

Had a quick look at results.

- occupancy. 63%.
too low imo.

..as I wrote yesterday phps the company needs to be better at getting the occupancy up. (as I wrote yesterday, imo the Psg de Gracia hostel in Barcelona is over priced (40€) imo ( in a dorm. room with 8-13 other people !!) & has too much availability for the same day arrivals. (you can test it over the web).

(the other Barcelona hostel has a toprate down town location ....where there are almost no other hostel beds available ....& downtown Barcelona is expensive for any tourist bed...
so it should be full every night in the summer imo)

so, the profitability in 2023 will be higher, higher occupancy % (if they wake up, which I think they will) & higher bed prices than in 2022.

if achieve say 75% in 2023 & say 25€/night then it is quite easy to calculate the turnover & profit.
(19% increase in turnover due to occupancy % & also +9% from the bed price increase; if the finance costs & rental costs are stable then the profit should notably increase (energy costs are now down on the daily price mkt)
£19 million turnover. +~£3.6m in 2023 if occupancy increased to 75%. + £1.7m if achieve £25/bed, from £23. so +£5.3m might be achieved in 2023.
= 19 + 5.3m = £24.3m turnover.

if achieve to add £5.3million to turnover in 2023 it would have a notable impact on EBITDA & PBT. A fair part of that £5.3m would end up as PBT since many costs do not change with an increase in revenue.
(EBITDA & adj. EBITDA were both about £5 m)

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my TP, 45p.
cap. value of £30 million.
& going above that might need changes such as buying more hostels, expanding existing ones, franchising being successful....

[smithie6] 09/6/2023 11:45

yes, that was interesting

[jeff h] 09/6/2023 11:27

Well done hybrasil you been calling this right for some time, an interesting piece in the results:-

"We are currently formulating a COVID 19 business interruption insurance claim, as we believe our policy wording is similar to some recent successful outcomes for insured parties in our industry. Whilst a successful claim may result in a material payout to the Group, at this stage, there can be no certainty of any financially beneficial outcome."

...would be worth a few £ million if successful I guess.

[iamnotanumber6] 09/6/2023 11:20

Results out. 1st 4 months of this year significantly ahead of budget.

[deepverge] 09/6/2023 08:00

The source is good: the company's CFO.
It seems strange to 1. post results on a Friday, when lots of traders are switching off, and
2.miss the 7 a.m. news slot.
But I expect results before the end of the day.

[hybrasil] 09/6/2023 07:05

No results

[hybrasil] 08/6/2023 21:22

Deepverge

If the results come out and there is any sort of updated trading statement this will literally take off

[deepverge] 08/6/2023 15:52

Safestay plc will announce its annual results for 2022 tomorrow, Friday 9th June 2023.
This in an email to me today from Paul Hingston, Group CFO.
See the trading update RNS of 28th February 2023 for an idea of what to expect.
And put on your seatbelts.

[smithie6] 08/6/2023 13:23

well, if they ever want someone to manage the bed prices more actively & get a higher % occupancy...

I'm here !

[hybrasil] 08/6/2023 07:06

Smithie

I regard the price as great news.
I’m sure we ll have results very soon.

I expect they are doing very well (otherwise prices wouldn’t be so high). Anyway we ll know soon enough

[smithie6] 07/6/2023 21:42

I wonder how the new COO is getting on in this new job...since 1st Feb. ..he has only had 16-17 weeks in the job.

"Peter is Chairman of the Gatwick Hotels Association."
.....I wonder how is coping with the change....since common problems at hostels is trying to keep the bathrooms & toilets in an ok condition....& keeping up with repairs. Most hostel users are quite different than most of the hotel users that the new COO will be used to, hostel users tend to be less 'house trained' than hotel users.

[smithie6] 07/6/2023 16:15

anyone been to any of the Safestay hostels ?

How did it go ?

(is there one in London that has been expanded & is quite nice, for a hostel ?? Elephant & Castle, & with a decent looking bar area....or was it the Holland Park one that was expanded ? ....which looks to be a good location, walking distance to the museum area in Kensington, the hostel is at the western end of Hyde Park, which is popular with tourists in any case )

[smithie6] 07/6/2023 16:05

btw

high prices imo in some cities for beds at Safestay.

eg. Barcelona, Paseig de Gracia hostel
a bed tonight (Wednesday) in a male dorm. with 8 beds, is 39.86€, on the Safestay website.

40€ for a bed in a dorm. !
arriving on same day after 5pm
without breakfast

seems very expensive to me.
too expensive ?

if you then change the number of people from 1 to 2 it comes back with a new total price (in that room), ie . there is availability.

& if you change the number of people to 3 people it comes back with a new total price, in that same room, ie. there is availability.

Should the price be reduced in order to get the occupancy up ?
the income from an empty bed is...zero !

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for 2 people, is the price per person about the same , or more, than for staying in an en suite private room at Premier Lodge, with bedside tables & lamps & a TV ?

if so then again it infers that the prices are arguably a bit higher than they should be. (possible clients will look at other options, including Premier Lodge)

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Barcelona is a popular destination & is surely very busy, even on a Wednesday. But 40€/night/person for a dorm. bed is too high imo & imp is causing the occupancy % to be lower than it should be.
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(Safestay has another hostel in Barcelona, which is downtown downtown & where one could phps charge a premium price if there is no other availability in the downtown downtown area. But at the Paseig de Gracia location I think that 40€/night/person is too high).
========

the normal action for hostels is to reduce the price on arrival day for empty beds after perhaps 3pm
.....but I do not see Safestay doing that.
Why not ?
Is Safestay 'on the ball' or perhaps a bit lazy/dozy ?
======

if they paid me a % I could adjust prices on arrival day after midday or 3pm to get more beds filled....but I'd rather not have the hassle !!

[hybrasil] 01/6/2023 17:00

Wise move battlebus. I tried unsuccessfully to buy some today.
I think you’ll see a 30% + rise in the share price when the results following that trading update come out. Things simply have to be rosy

Edit 2/6 (13.22)
I think the sheer lack of sales despite the increase in price validates what I’ve been saying. I expect ( and hope for) a serious jump in the price

[battlebus2] 01/6/2023 11:09

Moving higher. Added a few more.

[hybrasil] 15/5/2023 09:00

I think the next set of results will bring a big jump in the share price

[boonkoh] 09/5/2023 13:39

Good update read across from Hostelworld. Demand still strong. Price per night still increasing, driven by lack of supply. Win win for SSTY - both high occupancy as well as per night bed rates. On a largely fixed cost base.

[hybrasil] 12/4/2023 19:26

60p next stop!!!

Edit 21/04/23

Now equal to its highest in two years. Only .34 p to go to get to.60!

Edit 28/04/23

I hate speaking to myself. I guess following that trading update that we will have results in the next 6 or so weeks. That will bring a further trading update whichhopefully will
Be a catalyst for a further move forward

Edit 2/5/23

Had a look today. Not a lot of stock about. The results will if I am right bring a serious squeeze to the share price. I’m going to wait about 3 weeks before buying some more

[boonkoh] 22/3/2023 09:19

Useful update today from Hostelworld, confirming further positive momentum since the start of 2023. Next Safestay update should be positive.

[battlebus2] 28/2/2023 15:12

I agree, yes hybrasil I’m back in this morning. Target 40p. 🤞

[rimau1] 28/2/2023 11:25

Hidden gem backed up by 40p NAV. The TU should have compared against pre covid to give an idea of the normalised business opportunity. Has to be worth at least NAV given 2023 should be a normal trading year?

[hybrasil] 27/2/2023 08:18

Battlebus
Read a lot of this thread from the beginning.
COVID dealt a real blow here but the market has not woken up to the recovery.

Have been buying shares here slowly but there are very few about.
We won’t get news for some time but I expect that will be the impetus for the next price movement