Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 16/5/2023 08:09

Heading to a well deserved discount.

[spoole5] 12/5/2023 18:34

Now down 7% ytd. Wealth preservation?

[essentialinvestor] 03/5/2023 19:16

I've never seen PNL so cautiously positioned,
Including just before the GFC when managed by IR.

[apollocreed1] 03/5/2023 19:13

@Lowtrawler - I also hold all 3, but all 3 are heavily weighted towards inflation-linked bonds. RICA does well in crashes because of its "illiquid strategies" which I believe contain downside options on markets.

I've also held silver, platinum and gold ETFs for the last 13 years, but I'm quite disappointed by their performance. I read all the books of Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini etc - and they all tell us that real inflation is much higher than the official figures. They have said we would enter a hyper-inflationary environment for at least 15 years. But I've been only recently following EuroDollar University on YouTube and Jeff has a completely new perspective which is making me question all my principles.

[lowtrawler] 03/5/2023 15:50

apollocreed1, although RICA is a defensive play, they take positions that are heavily dependent on them reading the market correctly. It is different from PNL and CGT who are more balanced. I hold all three and RICA is a clear maverick. At the moment, I am overweight defensive stocks because I believe a crash is close. If a crash happens, I expect RICA will outperform both CGT and PNL.

As for the deflation theory. It is not a view I share. I believe Western fiat currency is overvalued and will naturally devalue, generating inflation.

[apollocreed1] 03/5/2023 14:22

I have a large holding in Ruffer, but I suspect they are losing on their commodity bets - especially BP and other energy.

It could very well be that Ruffer have got the inflation predictions completely wrong. I've been watching Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University on YouTube. He has loads of videos and interviews.

His novel theory is that the offshore dollar market totally dwarfs the Fed's balance sheet and money supply. So whatever QE the Fed performs in order to increase the Money Supply is more than cancelled out by the global contraction of the supply of dollars in the Eurodollar markets. And those Eurodollar markets are controlled by the private banks who have been consistently rik-averse since 2007 - hence they have created deflation and the long-term trend the Us is in is deflation. That means that the inflation we have been seeing since late 2021 is really transitory and based upon lack of supply from furlough during Covid and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Look at how quickly the oil and natural gas prices have fallen despite all the geopolitical tensions - where is the inflation?

Here's one of Jeff's interviews that explains complicated theories quite well. I think the sound only starts from 7.15 minute in:

[spoole5] 03/5/2023 12:33

Falling daily now! PNL doing a much better job at the moment

[lowtrawler] 02/5/2023 15:02

spoole5, you have clearly decided RICA is not right for your portfolio and that's fine. RICA is a defensive play and will only really perform when markets fall. This is particularly true given they are currently setup in anticipation a market fall is close.

The problem with holding bonds as a defensive play is they have recently been moving in parallel with equities. RICA provides derivative based defences and is more likely to provide price appreciation if equity markets fall. As part of a balanced portfolio, it has a role to play but is not for everyone.

I suggest you look at the defensive sector: CGT, PNL, and RICA. They are all performing poorly in the absence of the anticipated market fall. If the fall fails to materialise, they will continue to perform poorly.

[spoole5] 02/5/2023 14:07

Yet another fall in the NAV

[darrenp746] 29/4/2023 23:43

Maybe hold at bit of Bhmg as it tends to go up significantly when markets fall, or a little 3uks

[spoole5] 20/4/2023 16:00

Probably better off holding 60% equities 40% cash!

[lowtrawler] 20/4/2023 14:40

Indeed, whether RICA, CGT, PNL or any of the asset preservation funds, if equities are rising, they will underperform. At the moment, virtually all of the asset preservation funds are geared up expecting a huge equity crash and so, even on historic levels, they are underweight equities.

[makinbuks] 20/4/2023 11:11

As you would expect

[spoole5] 19/4/2023 16:07

NAV has really suffered being underweight equities.

[slicethepie] 23/3/2023 08:33

Disappointing to see Henry maxey clearly spending more time on his pa position in Zinnwald Lithium than the day job....

[slicethepie] 20/3/2023 08:46

Suspect Rica are the only fm enjoying the current turmoil!

[lowtrawler] 08/3/2023 10:45

The key point is RICA can be expected to return to around a 3% premium to NAV. In the middle of 2022, people were paying between 6% and 9% premium. At the moment, we are close to zero premium.

[lowtrawler] 08/3/2023 10:39

spoole5, last time we were over 320 was 1 June 2022 where the NAV at 31/5 was 2.998 and at 7/6 3.0209. Our most recently notified NAV is 3.011

I think you'll agree, not much change in the NAV but our price is much lower.

[spoole5] 08/3/2023 09:24

The nav is clearly falling

[lowtrawler] 07/3/2023 13:06

A lot of the apparent share price weakness is due to the reduced premium over NAV. The NAV hasn't moved much since we were over 320p.

[pvb] 01/3/2023 16:01

...Easy! Don't invest in it.

Sorted! :-)

[spoole5] 01/3/2023 15:40

I think we need downside protection from RICA!

[jonwig] 15/2/2023 15:49

It's all in the business plan. Downside protection costs a fee. If you don't like it ...

[spoole5] 15/2/2023 15:45

Rising markets have really wrong footed these guys.