Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 30/7/2020 17:46

Yup, Lloyds off another near 8% today. If LLOY need to tap shareholders for money next year, there is arguably considerable downside left. Lloyds had around 5.5 billion shares in issue back in 1999, now it's around 80 billion, from memory.

[zachariah] 30/7/2020 17:42

Maybe Jim and RICA will change their minds re LLoyds after today?!!

[zachariah] 30/7/2020 07:07

Jim Mellon of Master Investor said the following in his May Bulletin I’ve been adding to stocks that will provide upside in the recovery, including financials, notably Phoenix Group (LON:PHNX) and RSA (LON:RSA) in the UK, and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) in the US. I already hold Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY) in the UK, and HSBC (LON:HSBA) of everywhere. All should be good providers of dividends in the future, and investors should lock them away for five to 10 years and revisit then. They are hugely beaten up now – but this is not 2008 and there is not a financial crisis. As James Ferguson has said, this is a self-induced (by governments) shock to the world economy. I guess it is just a case of the time scales each person works on.But if you buy now (and are not as old as me!) you can work on Jims timescale. I agree that it doesn't explain why they bought them before now though.We are always told to cut our losses.

[jonwig] 30/7/2020 06:37

Yes, it's been mentioned a few times that their equity picks are a tad eccentric! I wonder how LLOY would look if you stripped out their compensation payouts on PPI and dodgy business lending in such as the Reading branch?

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 23:00

Lloyds is their largest single equity position, scratching my head on that one. Lloyds has been an incredibly efficient destroyer of shareholder wealth for 20 years- and counting.

[jimcar] 13/7/2020 14:20

Yes they have done well. I held this going into the crisis and sold out in April. I am not convinced about their equity strategy, prefer PNL's. Would PNL plus some BHMG do better in future?

[jonwig] 13/7/2020 10:59

Investment manager report for the year: https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7326S_1-2020-7-11.pdf Impressive strategy.

[pvb] 24/6/2020 10:18

...But Scottish Mortgage (SMT) has been better! :-) (So far)

[mister md] 01/5/2020 19:03

So, this share offering some protection after all ?

[slicethepie] 03/4/2020 14:24

Confused! I was assuming kiwi held Ruffer and was advocating buying more gold and linkers. Agree Rica are not stock pickers, I have known them since early days and they have made some howlers. It is not the sort of house that attracts stock pickers.For me it is time to buy risk and accept some will collapse but the winners will pay off many times ...however this will take time as many fast moving parts!

[jonwig] 03/4/2020 14:11

@ slice - pick the right stocks! (Not sure that RICA's banks are all that smart.) Their scenario is something like stagflation, with countries reluctant to raise interest rates. Linkers and gold are safest, good stocks too if you get the right ones. (I'd go for staples like ULVR and healthcare.)

[slicethepie] 03/4/2020 12:31

Not sure of the logic of doubling up on the positions they are taking. I would think looking for stocks is more appropriate

[jonwig] 03/4/2020 10:04

maybe try the iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF (INXG).

[kiwi2007] 03/4/2020 09:24

Just what I've been looking for. Makes a shed load of sense. Now to find some suitable gold investments (PHGP?) and index linked bonds (?).

[jonwig] 02/4/2020 17:06

Dated today (or yesterday): https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/About/Investment-review NB: " the catastrophe insurance did absolutely everything that might be expected of it. And it is now spent." So no hedge now. "we have increased again our holdings in inflation-linked bonds (notably in the US). These will be a proper protection against a grinding bear market in money, in savings, in prosperity. " I'd agree.

[elmfield] 27/3/2020 18:41

I see directors loading up every day this week, It adds up to quite a lump of money,

[slicethepie] 23/3/2020 19:40

It is all about understanding liquidity in this environment. I suspect many market participants have never seen time's like this and will be shocked when then can't sell something they thought was liquid ...

[elmfield] 23/3/2020 16:28

Definitely one to stay with. Imv.

[slicethepie] 23/3/2020 15:45

Amazing sign of the times...sellers of Rica in this environment. Must have bills to pay or margin calls

[slicethepie] 18/3/2020 08:54

I am getting quite excited about their long dated index linked gilts, short term inflation expectations will decline but long term will inevitably rise if govt actions continue at current pace!

[slicethepie] 17/3/2020 11:31

I would be surprised if JR isn't fully engaged currently probably can't keep him away!

[slicethepie] 17/3/2020 11:28

They saw the last one coming, the paper written by Henry maxey was brilliant and they were particularly good at seeing the evolution. This event was not predicted however they do have experience in understanding what happens when financial markets melt and will know where the best protection is as well as liquidity.

[steve c1] 17/3/2020 10:44

Question is now, do you buy more? Did very well last recession but this one may be very different.

[pvb] 12/3/2020 16:59

...Definitely working now. Just wishing I held more! :-)