Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[stevieweebie2] 27/9/2021 09:51

NO, they are boxed in. chaos at some stage, just wish I knew when. I do think 2022 is gonna be a disaster so will be in this and cash for Y/E.

[gb904150] 26/7/2021 10:52

With rising cases again in the US hasn't the Fed just been given the perfect excuse to hold off any rate rises or QE withdrawal? 'The Delta variant' is the new scary demon in town. Or they could just manage rates by talking about tighter policy while never enacting it? That was pretty much the outcome of the last meeting with record inflation. Financial repression is the name of the game. Negative real rates (IR's lower than inflation) for as long as they can get away with it. With that backdrop RICA, CGT and PNL....or just TIPS do look like good bets for the time being. Do people think we will actually get any meaningful tightening? It seems like even a 25bps rise or slowing of QE would cause chaos right now given how sensitive markets are.

[spoole5] 26/7/2021 10:26

You then have to pay playform fees. Depends on the length of time of your investment i suppose.

[spoole5] 26/7/2021 10:25

I disagree, it's the real yield that matters re gold. There will be negative real yields for a very long time.

[buywell3] 25/7/2021 22:37

GOLD looks set for a big fall once the FED switches to a rising rate policy buywell2 has posted on his GOLD thread why Seems that chartwise $1200 POG could come within 12 months of such a FED move What will happen to markets then ?

[apollocreed1] 25/7/2021 21:16

@topvest- If you park your cash in the open ended funds (CG Absolute Return, LF Ruffer Total Return and Troy Trojan) it's easier to come out at NAV. They also make sure that the funds are slightly easier to liquidate than their investment trusts. I ran my strategy by the deputy fund manager of CGT over the phone about 6 weeks ago and he also liked the idea (we had a long call primarily discussing if you could trust governments to meet their obligations on TIPS and other inflation linked bonds).

[pvb] 23/7/2021 22:24

...Damn! Now everyone is at it. :-)

[topvest] 23/7/2021 22:07

apollocreed1 - that's a good idea. I will think about that.

[pvb] 23/7/2021 17:59

...Yes, I alighted on RICA as a cash holding alternative a while ago. Unfortunately(!) I didn't act promptly enough and was left behind by its recent rises. Still, I did at least already have a proportion of my investment in it.

[apollocreed1] 21/7/2021 18:17

I think the best thing is to be fully invested in RICA,CGT and PNL. When the crash comes, you sell these (hoping they've held up) and buy more equities. So you never have cash sitting doing nothing for long periods.

[pvb] 20/7/2021 22:56

@topvest ...if you have the balls to invest it when everyone else is panicking. The first part is easy. The second part is much more difficult. Tell me about it! :-)

[williamcooper104] 20/7/2021 22:31

Makes a lot of sense I've got a fair chunk of cash (cost of inflation is the option cost of holding cash) and I'm buying out of the money options (SQQQ - 3x inverse Nasdaq and TMV - 3x inverse of the 30 year treasury)

[topvest] 20/7/2021 21:41

Key takeaway for me was to put safe cash into index linked asset classes such as bonds and also to carry a large cash position just in case we get a market crash. I am never inclined to sell all my risk assets though as I am not confident of timing the market. Personally, I think the best I can hope for is to have a good cash pile in the good times, so that I can get fully invested in a bear market. On a 50% drawdown then the cash in your portfolio provides some out-performance and super-charges it if you have the balls to invest it when everyone else is panicking. The first part is easy. The second part is much more difficult.

[topvest] 20/7/2021 21:34

This was excellent.... There is an asymmetry of risk, however. Bonds are a mathematically bounded asset class - returns are certain to be low, a best case of 1.5% over 10 years before any inflation risk. If inflation risks recede, then bond investors will earn a zero or slightly negative after inflation return. If inflation remains elevated, then the risks for bond owners are catastrophic. Heads you don't win much, tails you lose a lot. The US ten year yield moving to just 3% (where it was in 2018) would cause a loss of about 15% to bond holders. Heads you don't win much, tails you lose a lot!

[topvest] 20/7/2021 21:30

Yes, i thought their review was definitely worth noting. Indeed, I took some action as a direct result and switched a corporate bond fund into an index linked fund for one of my pension funds. What they say on government and corporate debt is definitely worth thinking about. Whether or not sustained inflation takes off is anyone's guess, but it has to be a reasonable likelihood (say 30-50%). If that happens, then there will be a 50% drawdown on quite a few asset classes with growth technology stocks most impacted. It could be truly awful. I am still 30% cash in my share portfolio and I feel comfortable with that at the moment. I'm certainly not going to sell everything but its definitely a time to be a tad cautious.

[spoole5] 20/7/2021 12:08

Agreed. It's going to a tough decade ahead, these guys know how to navigate the waters.

[irenekent] 19/7/2021 08:26

Today's investment review should be essential reading for all. What a folio of assets. A long way from soundbite advice offered by the press.

[jonwig] 09/6/2021 20:18

The May investment report: https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9331A_1-2021-6-4.pdf I must say, their timing is very good.

[makinbuks] 28/5/2021 11:35

What do they tip as their inflation portfolio?

[jonwig] 27/5/2021 16:32

For a conservatively run trust, Ruffer Investment Company caught fire last year. After a relatively mild fall to 209p in the coronavirus sell-off of February and March it staged a very quick recovery that has kept going all the way to last night’s close of 291p. In fact the shares gained more between March last year and today – 82p or 39pc – than they did in the 10 years to the eve of the sell-off in February last year (about 40p or 22pc). Some of this spectacular recent performance can be attributed to its well-timed and well-publicised investment in Bitcoin, the digital currency. The trust allocated about 2pc of its assets to Bitcoin in November when the price stood at about $15,000 (£11,000) and progressively sold as the virtual currency soared to a peak of $63,500. It sold out completely last month. This brilliant purchase is almost incidental to the trust’s credentials, however. It exists to preserve its investors’ capital in real terms and it has always chosen its mix of assets with more than one eye on what it has long seen as the inevitable return of inflation. That view, for a long time deeply unfashionable, is now mainstream – with good reason in this column’s view. All that has changed is that the trust no longer sees Bitcoin as a source of inflation protection at its currently elevated price (even if it has fallen sharply since the fund sold the last of its holdings). Instead, its managers have fallen back on their long-term favourites in that regard, namely gold (7.9pc of the portfolio at the end of last month) and index-linked government bonds (12.1pc). We will have more to say on the latter assets when we look at our own anti-inflation portfolio tomorrow, but Questor is convinced that Ruffer Investment Company will perform well if and when inflation returns in earnest. Now, as the consumer prices index shows signs of stirring back into life, would be a terrible time to sell this trust. Hold on.

[makinbuks] 27/5/2021 12:44

Judging by the headline its a buy recommendation

[lambeater] 27/5/2021 12:17

Thanks jonwig but not subscribed to the Telegraph. Would be great if you were able to paste the article though ;)

[jonwig] 27/5/2021 11:41

A puff from Questor; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/questor-bitcoin-gave-trust-boost-either-way-remains-ideal-inflation/

[barbello] 21/5/2021 09:35

Good note from Kepler Trust Intelligence 12 May. In particular a chart showing that the Trust participated in rising markets but very defensive in falling markets (fig 3.) vs a traditional 60/40 equity / bond portfolio - reassuring, hope they can keep it up

[makinbuks] 19/4/2021 11:37

A positive sign that the boards authority to issue shares at a premium is close to its limit