Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 15/2/2023 15:45

Rising markets have really wrong footed these guys.

[sphere25] 20/1/2023 18:09

Miles behind, distracted.

This was an interesting read from the 16th January:



Alot of useful information in there. There was also an interesting article here with Ruffer mentioned, that includes all kinds of views from the big players:



Intrigued to see if Ruffer are eventually on the money here. Softened my bearish stance to try and look at the merits of individual companies because that is what is happening out there. Individual companies are being re-rated on their own updates.

It is easy to anchor to being overly bearish, and not try and make some bullish moves, especially when all these once in decades events happen. The wider markets are definitely not aligning with Ruffer's view, that is not to say they can be discounted.

The S&P500 is clearly moving about in an indecisive narrow range with a bigger range down to the recent lows also in play. None of that again aligns with Ruffer. I think it goes straight through those lows down to the low 3000's if the market sniffed out something more serious coming, as per many of Ruffer's comments, or at least my interpretation of what Ruffer are commenting.

It would be naive to not consider bigger downside in wider markets, but surely the market would have done it by now? Why would wider markets rally of late, have this level of stabilisation and then sit around this long, even with the likes of the higher rated S&P500 simply refusing to materially re-rate lower.

Maybe you come back here in a few months or abit longer and think "What the hell was the market doing sat so comfortable with all the risks out there!!!!???1!"

I can't forecast these things. There are forecasts from the big players up there at the start but last years forecasts were miles off so will they be closer this year?

Folk like me are simply bystanders and try and move as best as possible.

Time will naturally reveal all.

All imo
DYOR

[slicethepie] 06/1/2023 20:48

obviously not for you then ...au revoir

[spoole5] 06/1/2023 19:32

Equities storming ahead and these have a 10% exposure!

[u813061] 29/12/2022 11:27

RICA was the only one of the defensive investment trusts to deliver a positive total return in 2022 which is a good achievement. It features as one of my top performing investment trusts. To see the others, watch this video hxxps://youtu.be/5j5cTeEW8k0

[jonwig] 29/10/2022 11:50

Cash is King -

[sphere25] 12/10/2022 09:03

What a mess. The clever people created a mess and now they're in trouble:

"Britain's gilt market seizure is a warning from the future. As the liquidity tide continues to recede, other crises will emerge. Housing markets are one obvious area where rapid rate rises are already causing trouble. As the Bank of England has just discovered, central banks may have to choose between controlling inflation or protecting financial stability. Ending the reign of easy money was never going to see a smooth succession"

All kinds of cautionary tones out there on financial stability and things possibly breaking in the future. Who knows what other double and triple levered up derivatives folk have created and are exposed to.

If they do end up reversing QT, they will just be creating a bigger mess in future. Surely they have to hold course and the pain be felt now....surely!

Let's see if the forced selling by pension funds create any opportunities for quick bounces.

All imo
DYOR

[lowtrawler] 03/10/2022 16:41

Usually around a 3% premium to NAV and so further room to grow. I assume they benefitted from the market turmoil - they are setup for a bloodbath.

[tonytyke2] 03/10/2022 16:30

Mmmm.....SP big jump this p.m. NAV from 289p on the 28/09 to 305.8p announced this p.m.

[bpdon] 28/9/2022 10:41

TIPS and other index linked products have been well sold off this year. As has gold. Ruffer has quite a lot of exposure to these asset classes.

Reminder from the June end of year review below. I am hoping the bets on credit market dislocations via their unconventional and options holdings will help hold up today's NAV. Wishful thinking perhaps.

"In the period, inflation-linked bonds cost the portfolio 3.5%, with the longest dated 2073 issue down 51%. We have long called these assets the ‘crown jewels’ in our portfolio due to our conviction that they should provide the perfect protection in the world of financial repression we are entering. We are still of this view. But the sensitivity to rising rates we have warned about, has now been felt. This illustrates a distinction we have been labouring; investing for inflation and investing for inflation volatility are not the same thing and conflating the two will be costly. Mr Market will make us crawl through fire for the gift of redemption, and derivative protection via the unconventional toolkit remains essential to safely navigating choppy and dangerous markets. Inflation-linked bonds are now back to pre-Brexit prices – and yet in our assessment the likelihood and proximity of the inflationary denouement is much greater."

[lowtrawler] 28/9/2022 09:35

RICA have positioned themselves for a market bloodbath. It is now happening but RICA are falling?

[apollocreed1] 20/9/2022 15:20

Hipgnosis is suffering from rising yields that will eventually affect its DCF valuation, as well as its high debt level. So I agree that music royalties are a good diversifier but I expect more care in the micro analysis when choosing the investment.
This reminds me of the end of 2018 when Ruffer lost 10% investing in Japanese banks.

[makinbuks] 20/9/2022 10:44

I agree, a music royalty fund seems a sensible diversification position for a preservation fund. The particular fund is perhaps surprising given recent publicity and related volatility

[lowtrawler] 20/9/2022 10:38

RICA aim to achieve asset preservation with moderate growth but their methods are unconventional. They are actively managed and use an approach I have not seen anywhere else. Investing in RICA requires trust in the management team.

[pvb] 18/9/2022 17:09

...Why are you "worried and puzzled" by that? Remember, earlier in the year they held Bitcoin - for a time. :-)

[apollocreed1] 18/9/2022 14:53

Performance here isn't looking good.
I also am very worried and puzzled as to why they have 0.5% of NAV in the Hipgnosis Songs fund.

[melody9999] 15/9/2022 09:11

most buys being reported as sells this morning - my top ups included.

[woodyjmw] 15/9/2022 00:55

I suppose unlike the 1970's oil shock, the US is self sufficient in energy generation and even a net exporter I believe, they are not suffering the same heating and electricity price increases as we are. Europe is likely to buy material from the US to support Ukraine and in any subsequent rebuilding. The Fed has taken more decisive steps on inflation and the markets have more faith in them than the ECB and the Bank of England.

[apollocreed1] 09/9/2022 16:25

@sphere25-Good points.
All I can add is that honest economists never get the top jobs. Only the liars that say things like "money printing doesn't cause inflation" (see yesterday's response by Powell when asked what he thought about Milton Friedman) get the jobs at the Fed.

[stevieweebie2] 01/8/2022 09:05

take some longs as a hedge.

[lowtrawler] 29/7/2022 16:30

RICA have positioned themselves for a market bloodbath and the market continues to rise! I support the views of RICA management but we are suffering while the market takes time to wake up.

[makinbuks] 18/7/2022 11:17

Yes, I particularly like:

"In May 2021 the Bank of England thought inflation in summer 2022 would be around 2.5%. The actual result? 9.2%.So, we must conclude that nobody has a clue - particularly not academic economists. Despite their recent mistakes they remain highly confident that inflation will drop back to around 2% by 2024 and stay there."

Chestnuts is a great description for the Bezzle and the Ketchup. Amusing but all too easy to churn out. Wisecracks are not necessarily wise words although they may appear so.

I do trust they have some good research too and would prefer to see their factual analysis

One big concern I have is they research the long term history and always hypothesise reversion. In this edition for example:

"The long-term chart of UK and US inflation makes it clear that the last 30-40 years has been something of an aberration."

The implication is that we have learned nothing and the world has not changed.

None the less a very good read